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early warning project skip to main content select country view map select country go search the entire site search about about the project contact statistical risk assessment about the statistical risk assessment map ranking of all countries high risk countries ongoing mass killing sort countries by risk factor change a country s risk factors methodology how to use our statistical risk assessments methodology statistical model methodology risk factor sources definitions accuracy uncertainty of our model s results country analysis reports downloads early warning project the early warning project assesses the risk of mass atrocities in countries around the world genocide and mass atrocities are devastating crimes in their scale and scope in their enduring psychic scars for survivors and in the long term trauma they cause in societies where they occur despite past efforts to address systematic killing and a body of law formed after the holocaust to prevent and punish perpetrators such crimes persist we use quantitative and qualitative methods to spotlight countries where mass atrocities have not begun but where the risk for such violence is high we strive to improve this early warning system for mass atrocities by using a variety of publicly available data and forecasting methods the early warning project is a joint initiative of the simon skjodt center for the prevention of genocide at the united states holocaust memorial museum and the dickey center for international understanding at dartmouth college photo above a spla in opposition soldier walks through the elephant grass in rebel held magwi county of south sudan s eastern equatoria state on august 28 2017 ushmm jason patinkin latest reports statistical risk assessment countries at risk for intrastate mass killing 2025 26 early warning project statistical risk assessment results summary handout summary handout countries at risk for intrastate mass killing 2025 26 early warning project statistical risk assessment results country analysis major developments and worsening risks for mass atrocities in papua indonesia view all reports share explore our analysis statistical risk assessment see countries ranked by risk of mass atrocities and learn about countries that are most at risk methodology explore the methodologies we use to generate our statistical risk assessments these assessments estimate the likelihood of a new mass killing in more than 160 countries country analysis read in depth analysis of countries at risk including uganda chad indonesia and south sudan reports downloads find all reports from the early warning project download files and access our data repository on github receive updates from the early warning project and the simon skjodt center for the prevention of genocide the early warning project is a joint initiative of the simon skjodt center for the prevention of genocide of the united states holocaust memorial museum and the dickey center for international understanding at dartmouth college terms of use privacy accessibility legal about about the project contact statistical risk assessment about the statistical risk assessment map ranking of all countries high risk countries ongoing mass killing sort countries by risk factor change a country s risk factors methodology how to use our statistical risk assessments methodology statistical model methodology risk factor sources definitions accuracy uncertainty of our model s results country analysis reports downloads select country go feedback