Meta tags:

Headings (most frequently used words):

may, 2018, the, thursday, tuesday, 10, and, recession, wednesday, sunday, friday, blog, for, things, wage, palley, early, warning, gordon, econcrit, 31, 30, 29, 24, 20, 18, 17, 15, 13, 11, monday, archive, labels, search, this, reference, art, was, heregraph, techniques, about, me, yield, curve, next, only, fear, restrains, economy, now, jitters, cochrane, called, it, sometimes, little, similarities, in, growth, 1990, 91, great, inflation, consensus, is, dangerously, wrong, says, breakdown, tom, exactly, cost, income, markets, year, average, years, out, no, of, course, there, an, moment, we, ve, been, waiting, acuppla, notes, on, my, way, calcs, using, robert, method, report, abuse,

Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (774), and (222), that (142), growth (104), #recession (81), for (79), graph (78), this (66), but (64), from (58), line (53), year (52), rate (51), data (51), was (45), share (45), may (43), with (42), years (42), not (41), are (41), there (40), 2018 (40), time (40), red (40), has (38), #average (36), trend (34), then (33), debt (32), have (32), all (31), blue (31), economic (30), economy (30), what (30), inflation (29), gordon (29), great (29), when (28), you (28), can (28), see (27), than (27), one (27), more (25), like (24), now (24), since (24), interest (23), cost (23), problem (23), productivity (23), about (22), last (22), out (22), 2016 (22), increase (22), after (22), which (22), wage (21), right (21), unemployment (21), shows (21), here (20), two (20), change (20), they (20), look (20), periods (20), late (19), think (19), want (19), don (19), dots (19), how (18), been (18), lines (18), numbers (18), 2006 (18), before (17), sbe (17), around (17), between (17), email (17), over (17), into (16), real (16), income (16), gray (16), rates (15), early (15), labor (15), palley (15), january (15), points (15), end (14), start (14), policy (14), way (14), only (14), september (14), level (14), pinterest (14), facebook (14), blogthis (14), percent (14), down (14), first (13), gdp (13), little (13), toynbee (13), consensus (13), 1990 (13), same (13), just (13), until (13), maybe (13), 2017 (13), things (12), 2007 (12), said (12), much (11), know (11), push (11), civilization (11), july (11), using (11), robert (11), yield (11), next (11), will (11), point (11), price (11), comments (11), three (11), period (11), axis (11), some (11), 2008 (11), still (11), recessions (11), private (10), wrong (10), fall (10), curve (10), august (10), them (10), where (10), our (10), other (10), looks (10), trends (10), values (10), because (10), get (10), below (10), per (10), flat (10), nominal (10), also (9), during (9), economics (9), did (9), too (9), trump (9), use (9), february (9), march (9), october (9), december (9), these (9), got (9), such (9), show (9), left (9), employment (9), away (9), those (9), number (9), should (9), different (9), ten (9), bottom (9), challenge (9), long (8), work (8), ancient (8), times (8), slow (8), says (8), doesn (8), april (8), method (8), exactly (8), june (8), november (8), both (8), less (8), rgdp (8), lower (8), could (8), force (8), drop (8), ooh (8), nirp (8), spread (8), rome (7), 1950s (7), decline (7), micro (7), thought (7), thru (7), 1970 (7), part (7), demand (7), makes (7), difference (7), even (7), why (7), compare (7), 1973 (7), 2012 (7), four (7), off (7), goes (7), going (7), good (7), another (7), suddenly (7), john (7), flawed (7), eye (7), natural (7), government (7), 1955 (7), cochrane (7), fred (6), based (6), money (6), rise (6), household (6), source (6), moment (6), dangerously (6), works (6), sector (6), many (6), theory (6), thomas (6), new (6), pre (6), its (6), again (6), yesterday (6), identical (6), does (6), together (6), green (6), quarter (6), rounding (6), each (6), something (6), dot (6), isn (6), half (6), put (6), 2018q1 (6), high (6), fed (6), uptick (6), rising (6), solve (6), similarity (6), participation (6), boom (6), view (5), sense (5), market (5), search (5), make (5), keynes (5), financial (5), excessive (5), big (5), warning (5), course (5), archive (5), response (5), history (5), lot (5), friedman (5), logic (5), side (5), united (5), 2014 (5), federal (5), cannot (5), had (5), must (5), posts (5), his (5), doing (5), linear (5), figure (5), people (5), become (5), post (5), thing (5), showing (5), jiggy (5), well (5), close (5), recovery (5), process (5), follow (5), looking (5), space (5), few (5), almost (5), though (5), remember (5), back (5), say (5), effects (5), pretty (5), starts (5), sharp (5), negative (5), 2001 (5), fast (5), notice (5), capacity (5), utilization (5), today (5), rises (5), already (5), sudden (5), limit (5), keynesian (5), prices (5), runs (5), beginning (5), peak (5), ends (5), baby (5), funds (5), arthurian (4), schmelzing (4), links (4), middle (4), capitalism (4), home (4), century (4), monetary (4), creative (4), political (4), depression (4), 1960 (4), stuff (4), cycle (4), inequality (4), run (4), markets (4), sometimes (4), sbt (4), credit (4), found (4), own (4), org (4), 2015 (4), states (4), phillips (4), 1960s (4), 1968 (4), paper (4), old (4), vigor (4), quantity (4), mid (4), saw (4), better (4), quarters (4), done (4), prediction (4), 2009 (4), 1947 (4), would (4), quarterly (4), slowed (4), made (4), thin (4), yet (4), running (4), annual (4), previous (4), sorted (4), didn (4), chronological (4), order (4), nine (4), size (4), sunday (4), comparison (4), slowdown (4), find (4), sheet (4), comparable (4), talk (4), low (4), 1980s (4), legend (4), bright (4), 2017q1 (4), okay (4), slight (4), falling (4), expect (4), couple (4), thursday (4), peaked (4), dropping (4), later (4), climbing (4), always (4), who (4), called (4), higher (4), near (4), future (4), falls (4), list (4), quickly (4), solution (4), meets (4), successful (4), meet (4), begins (4), creativity (4), minority (4), becomes (4), problems (4), effect (4), whole (4), wrote (4), wages (4), cpi (4), reached (4), hourly (4), earnings (4), seem (4), motion (4), percentage (4), zero (4), ages (3), industrial (3), article (3), social (3), nature (3), classical (3), page (3), blog (3), 2021 (3), terms (3), prosperity (3), milton (3), making (3), finance (3), 1980 (3), arnold (3), tell (3), calcs (3), jitters (3), 2020 (3), words (3), their (3), ideas (3), world (3), business (3), note (3), upper (3), click (3), theories (3), full (3), aggregate (3), 2013 (3), samuelson (3), solow (3), war (3), recent (3), 1958 (3), mostly (3), cause (3), slows (3), greatness (3), most (3), let (3), gets (3), figured (3), never (3), looked (3), throwing (3), putting (3), equation (3), were (3), slower (3), normal (3), thinking (3), hey (3), mean (3), marcus (3), figures (3), averages (3), somewhere (3), perot (3), highest (3), 1948 (3), far (3), decimal (3), place (3), date (3), column (3), sort (3), along (3), above (3), rounded (3), original (3), tuesday (3), instead (3), comment (3), measured (3), couldn (3), output (3), hour (3), results (3), breaking (3), smaller (3), incremental (3), agitation (3), rather (3), compressed (3), severe (3), 2007q1 (3), exists (3), entirely (3), jump (3), bigger (3), saying (3), current (3), gradually (3), drops (3), keep (3), downhill (3), 2000 (3), mauldin (3), indication (3), impending (3), suggest (3), 1997 (3), might (3), once (3), path (3), shown (3), term (3), rapidly (3), takes (3), identify (3), graphs (3), dollar (3), your (3), greater (3), mailing (3), reason (3), opening (3), feel (3), total (3), model (3), asset (3), harm (3), assessment (3), turns (3), contrast (3), investment (3), anything (3), ago (3), means (3), question (3), breakdown (3), continues (3), present (3), itself (3), consequences (3), divide (3), compensation (3), interesting (3), behind (3), factor (3), while (3), pace (3), severity (3), hit (3), ready (3), restart (3), happen (3), gap (3), civilian (3), massive (3), except (3), heavy (3), gaining (3), 1990s (3), profile (2), art (2), explain (2), stagnation (2), revolution (2), via (2), centuries (2), capitalist (2), society (2), medieval (2), life (2), england (2), without (2), case (2), open (2), reddit (2), seriously (2), eight (2), international (2), cycles (2), quigley (2), evolution (2), civ (2), nobody (2), levels (2), dead (2), units (2), fix (2), fallacy (2), service (2), 2023 (2), target (2), labels (2), dipper (2), him (2), missing (2), word (2), notes (2), acuppla (2), waiting (2), tom (2), similarities (2), fear (2), restrains (2), 202 (2), 100 (2), 2024 (2), 2025 (2), nothing (2), remains (2), civilizations (2), economists (2), commonly (2), encourages (2), repayment (2), lead (2), incorrect (2), conclusions (2), difficult (2), important (2), study (2), currency (2), leuchtenburg (2), free (2), historical (2), corner (2), quotes (2), baffling (2), papers (2), pull (2), dilemma (2), versus (2), role (2), presidential (2), link (2), potential (2), general (2), vol (2), quote (2), selected (2), troubles (2), lost (2), american (2), policies (2), encourage (2), velocity (2), day (2), phrase (2), very (2), slope (2), intercept (2), excel (2), evaluating (2), conditions (2), scatterplots (2), anyway (2), copy (2), talking (2), somehow (2), dangerous (2), bad (2), accept (2), facts (2), useful (2), changed (2), avoid (2), ross (2), showed (2), forget (2), president (2), 1992 (2), stand (2), trading (2), james (2), fourth (2), began (2), recoveries (2), realized (2), scatter (2), need (2), improve (2), happens (2), spiral (2), stop (2), impression (2), empty (2), groups (2), five (2), packed (2), unexpected (2), separated (2), places (2), equations (2), expected (2), wonder (2), wednesday (2), comparing (2), days (2), second (2), sentence (2), diminished (2), accounting (2), plus (2), minus (2), spreadsheet (2), series (2), 1948q1 (2), decade (2), highs (2), agree (2), caused (2), definite (2), somebody (2), used (2), minimize (2), probably (2), closely (2), getting (2), smooth (2), provides (2), display (2), fernando (2), martin (2), similar (2), least (2), tic (2), 2008q1 (2), relative (2), includes (2), detail (2), anybody (2), hold (2), calculation (2), preliminary (2), hitting (2), cylinders (2), come (2), buy (2), indicators (2), started (2), 2005 (2), definitely (2), months (2), uphill (2), warnings (2), friday (2), every (2), rest (2), earlier (2), dropped (2), added (2), stays (2), occurs (2), election (2), increases (2), meant (2), affects (2), product (2), being (2), person (2), widely (2), effective (2), larger (2), allow (2), sure (2), focused (2), liked (2), month (2), starting (2), small (2), adds (2), peri (2), worst (2), regarding (2), macroeconomics (2), argued (2), saturated (2), augmented (2), zlb (2), claims (2), shortage (2), deliver (2), draws (2), fallacious (2), asserts (2), ensure (2), crisis (2), central (2), within (2), establishment (2), argues (2), resting (2), hope (2), following (2), unless (2), correlative (2), rhythm (2), met (2), nonetheless (2), depressions (2), defeat (2), coming (2), merely (2), dominant (2), oppressive (2), withdrawal (2), allegiance (2), cascade (2), call (2), varying (2), convert (2), equal (2), hard (2), indexed (2), goods (2), services (2), mark (2), kansas (2), city (2), took (2), roughly (2), climb (2), nearly (2), assume (2), comparability (2), pattern (2), magnified (2), sharply (2), marks (2), delayed (2), concurrent (2), coincidence (2), continue (2), thereafter (2), believe (2), timing (2), events (2), 2011 (2), visible (2), waviness (2), 2026 (2), taylor (2), faster (2), ratio (2), production (2), nonsupervisory (2), modest (2), women (2), workforce (2), yeah (2), comfortable (2), standard (2), explanations (2), damn (2), occurred (2), 1964 (2), recovered (2), predict (2), tightening (2), known (2), issues (2), drifting (2), tightened (2), sat (2), herbert (2), hoover (2), cnn (2), econcrit (2), powered, blogger, complete, techniques, commentary, helps, dark, republic, principate, unequivocally, ownership, property, transaction, relations, through, agriculture, simulations, limits, anglo, saxon, norman, farming, laxton, village, survey, peasants, advances, agricultural, technology, 800, 1000, maritime, insurance, built, priceonomics, classes, culture, ups, downs, 900, atlantic, collapse, written, arctic, ice, andy, blunden, taking, malthus, guilds, religious, preceded, 20th, convergence, divergence, portuguese, 1527, 1850, harbingers, modernity, injections, european, 1492, 1790, europe, riches, voxeu, sustained, daily, reckoning, global, suprasecular, 700, michael, hudson, armstrongeconomics, reference, licensed, under, commons, attribution, noncommercial, noderivatives, license, report, abuse, whelan, guide, whack, mole, opinion, enough, econ, throwback, bankers, plan, continuing, panic, secular, profit, falsifiable, n2r, fried, man, measuring, profits, math, ulc, piggies, personal, google, overview, financialization, 19th, composition, equilibrium, polarization, concerns, drive, action, companion, ceiling, pressure, cmz, calculating, brooks, adams, decay, attitude, apr13, alternative, thesis, 400k, smoothing, 1966, gothedistance, partners, dance, coch, 2019, 139, 204, 159, 2022, 118, 136, blogthemes, pedestal, appear, name, ozymandias, king, kings, mighty, despair, beside, maintained, fate, determined, challenges, facing, philosophers, powerful, understood, indeed, ruled, else, discourages, indebted, attempts, describe, complex, interactions, overly, simple, adages, remarked, plurality, suffrages, guarantee, truth, discovery, cases, likely, respects, departs, prevailing, descartes, meyer, tasci, nathan, becker, stefan, zenker, shelley, themes, 10000, mercantile, timelines, wanniski, jude, volumes, abridged, tooke, inquiry, principle, terborgh, george, rostovtzeff, roman, empire, mullineux, crises, montagu, critical, essays, reviews, ferdinand, beginnings, perils, franklin, roosevelt, deal, kissinger, meaning, reflections, spengler, kant, mischief, choose, finley, ensor, 1870, 1914, delong, mathematical, dalio, principles, machine, arrighi, twentieth, statistics, book, icon, window, phrases, influenced, debate, norikazu, takami, retrospectives, cruel, stability, reconsidered, objective, menu, choice, retrospective, johannes, schwarzer, 1977, humphrey, literature, 1974, hayek, prize, lecture, pretense, knowledge, counter, address, alt, 1962, arthur, okun, measurement, significance, achieving, maintaining, stable, richard, lipsey, 1959, charles, schultze, 1937, abridgement, unabridged, spontaneous, steve, keen, hover, quick, folder, tab, contents, levy, institute, publications, ebooks, forever, fadedpage, costly, decent, jobs, scarce, regain, reducing, china, measure, fan, diagrams, screen, capture, slide, slideshare, presentatio, surely, true, corresponding, write, numbered, elections, weeks, republican, candidates, heavily, adver, trouble, went, harbor, freight, traffic, fight, parking, hearing, forced, conclude, concept, cap, subscribe, atom, older, newer, spoke, functions, huh, pick, calculate, add, save, crawled, longest, lie, ourselves, dwell, understand, predictions, fact, recognized, stationary, told, averaging, 50s, read, averaged, simplify, uses, 1952, adjustment, lump, value, living, standards, kind, focus, thick, progressive, scott, sumner, available, nunes, hamilton, bureau, analysis, announced, grew, econbrowser, chris, matthews, tepid, fortune, julian, brookes, mistake, thrumming, engine, human, flourishing, rolling, stone, monday, proofreading, compar, round, creating, plots, subsets, subset, columns, puts, sequence, lowest, needed, confidence, forgot, cluster, knew, fixed, unsorted, arrive, grouped, closest, ones, broad, white, strip, scattered, tightly, odd, random, groupings, remembered, ran, unrounded, gaps, grouping, strange, relation, favors, certain, nah, light, bulb, ing, description, unchanged, matter, trendline, omitted, noticeable, nope, calling, scatterplot, created, managed, turn, occupied, attention, attributed, noted, related, calculated, formatted, info, tested, duplicating, checked, satisfied, worksheet, gave, evaluate, seventy, neighborhood, downward, 1998, histories, seen, latter, match, ballpark, framework, attributable, doors, attribute, seven, informative, punctuated, gain, fourteen, gained, messiness, guess, count, reading, kondratieff, indecipherable, tied, overlapping, 1958q1, 1949q1, 1959q1, 1950q1, 1960q1, picture, consecutive, apart, top, title, stretch, deserves, finish, hide, peaks, listlessness, reminded, louis, ball, bustin, horrible, included, territory, downer, heads, tentative, fairly, trying, tiresome, hear, evidence, shoot, reasons, significantly, slowing, 1988, 1993, 1978, 1983, 1953, prs85006092, menzie, chinn, accounted, anticipating, writes, throw, flag, depends, story, discusses, leading, give, nor, hint, wanders, tends, six, billions, news, aware, rolls, springtime, mowing, lawn, binge, watching, wife, blogging, intermittent, 10th, item, subject, assuming, constant, 2020q1, reported, hypothetical, 2018q2, reaches, slowly, approaches, unfortunate, actual, intent, wanted, affect, passes, missed, 4am, deadline, gross, domestic, preceding, seasonally, adjusted, rule, recipient, however, bring, transactions, any, distributed, narrowly, wealthy, favor, globalization, contacted, whether, hated, form, harassment, none, frequently, opens, dear, friends, colleagues, colleague, friend, nice, harassed, spam, quite, frankly, forward, curmudgeon, morning, understatement, ego, saving, best, maintains, blind, possibility, reduce, fragility, create, whiplash, owing, contradictions, tomorrow, promote, wars, undermine, foster, spawns, toxic, politics, knowing, prevention, solved, eleven, abstract, website, working, titled, worsen, latest, growing, proceeds, generate, arises, fails, tragic, event, cessation, convulsive, effort, succeeds, resumed, era, rhythmical, failed, dies, speak, express, concern, totalitarian, governments, summed, losing, common, complaint, everybody, complains, focusing, changing, necessarily, solves, solving, ability, sounds, circular, argument, grow, keeps, causes, identifies, consequent, loss, unity, answering, mimesis, majority, failure, power, henceforth, exchange, multiply, mind, versions, leaving, considering, divided, indexing, tight, reaching, earners, wondering, fallen, rearranged, surprising, consistently, 1947q1, 1977q4, 1978q1, weird, costs, weren, kitov, consumer, monetarism, supply, spent, josé, mustre, del, río, emily, pollard, easy, duplicate, reach, valid, assumption, variable, lags, areas, shall, appears, toward, dramatic, actually, perhaps, considers, improvement, longer, neither, observations, weaker, await, onset, views, held, magnification, delays, everything, happening, multiplied, increment, thus, indicating, striking, trough, clearly, declines, concurrently, evident, naked, bounces, gives, persistently, returns, dissipates, brings, persists, wouldn, improved, arise, resembled, preparing, prepare, astounded, edit, speeds, grown, prerecession, vulnerable, unrealized, closed, several, key, ways, resembles, prolonged, weakness, subsequent, adequate, accumulation, public, accumulated, circulating, employees, although, measures, underutilization, returned, remained, odds, behavior, rebounded, chart, workers, surpassed, shortly, rigidities, thoma, descriptions, 1946, retire, downtrend, begin, explains, myself, bottomed, 1954, 1956, basically, 31½, comes, third, otherwise, internet, ask, 1957, recall, addressing, explanation, particularly, implications, mild, creeping, anxiety, forder, rapid, predicts, finally, golden, age, lasting, begun, everyone, predicting, really, skidded, keeping, reconstructed, skidding, bull, apparently, hodrick, prescott, example, encouraging, supposed, clear, blur, consider, dataset, subtracted, fedfunds, eliminate, influence, past, sloping, narrowing, inverts, extended, due, non, realistic, advice, 1995, nasty, eyeballed, lows, cards, invert, mea, culpa, bond, overnight, controls, inverted, reliable, worry, examples, stock, crashed, former, office, 1929, signaled,

Text of the page (random words):
i m trying to avoid tiresome detail here but people are going to be saying ooh ooh trump during the next couple years the bright blue line is going to go up and up significantly as time goes by and the great recession gradually drops out of the calculation so in the next few years if you hear anybody say the economy is great again and they hold up a graph of 10 year average growth well now you have evidence to shoot them down i for one still expect the economy to improve for a number of reasons but i expect to see it in current data not in ten year averages at may 10 2018 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday may 9 2018 acuppla things here s my graph based on robert gordon s description from sunday the unemployment rate sorted on the x axis real gdp growth on the y axis graph 1 data in each period sorted by unemployment rate here s the same data in chronological order graph 2 data in chronological order the jiggy lines are different now but the trend lines are unchanged as are the numbers in the trend line equations that s what i expected to see but i had to look next how does the graph look if i use the original unemployment values instead of rounding them to one decimal place like this graph 3 data not rounded compare this graph to graph 1 or for that matter you can compare the numbers in the trendline equations to those in graph 2 which has the same numbers as 1 with rounding omitted the numbers are different no noticeable change in the trend lines though it s not a big change i wonder remember at the end of sunday s post the average of my trend line values for 1970 2006 was 3 2 the same number robert gordon got but my average for 2006 2016 was a little off i got 1 5 he got 1 4 i wonder if that difference goes away when the rounding goes away nope i get 3 2 and 1 5 same as before at may 09 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday may 8 2018 notes on my gordon s way calcs yesterday i said i want to use robert gordon s method of evaluating economic conditions i m not doing it by throwing away all the data where there is no identical unemployment rate in both time periods the way i m doing it is by putting linear trend lines on scatterplots and compare the trends proofreading that looks like i should have said compar ing the trends also i realized that since i m not doing it by throwing data away i don t have to round the unemployment numbers to one decimal place next time no rounding as part of the process of creating my gordon scatter plots after i made subsets of the data for selected time periods i sorted them for each subset i sorted three columns unemployment rate rgdp growth rate and date on the unemployment column the sort puts my x axis values in sequence lowest to highest the way they would be if i was putting date values on that axis i didn t need the date column for the graph i needed it to improve my confidence in my work what happens if i don t sort the data i found out when i forgot to do the sort it looked like a cluster or spiral or something i knew right away when i saw it that i did something wrong and i fixed it right away i didn t stop to look at it so i want to graph the unsorted data again and look at it this time graph 1 unemployment rate x axis and rgdp growth rate y axis not a spiral maybe a scatter if you follow along the blue line from dot to dot you arrive at the dots in chronological order uh the dots are in chronological order not you but looking at it i get the impression that the dots are grouped with empty space between the groups look at the dot closest to the upper left corner there are no dots below it three dots off to the left maybe five to the right but there is a big space with no dots below that upper left one and look at the two highest dots the ones above the 15 0 level below each of them is a broad white strip with few scattered dots in it a little off to the left a little off to the right the dots are more tightly packed together odd isn t it maybe that s random unexpected groupings separated by unexpected empty space then i remembered that i rounded the values i ran into that problem before where the dots got packed into groups by the rounding i did the graph over right away using the original unrounded data graph 2 looks almost the same oh of course rounded to one decimal place i could have nine dots side by side between 4 0 and 5 0 on the x axis with the dots separated by gaps only about the size of a dot the grouping isn t from the rounding then you get these strange ideas like maybe there is some relation between unemployment and growth which favors certain places on the graph over other places nah but you have to think about those things you know because one of those ideas could lead to the light bulb that works at may 08 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday may 7 2018 using robert gordon s method since last we spoke i figured out how to use the slope and intercept functions in excel better late than never huh i want to use robert gordon s method of evaluating economic conditions the method we looked at yesterday i want to pick time periods that interest me this time and compare economic growth in those periods his way for quarters with identical unemployment rates i m not doing it by throwing away all the data where there is no identical unemployment rate in both time periods the way i m doing it is by putting linear trend lines on scatterplots and compare the trends like i did yesterday it s the method that makes sense to me i don t know how robert gordon did it but i figure he must have done it the same way as it is the only way to do it that i thought of anyway now i can calculate the slope and intercept values i don t have to make the graph and add the trend line and copy the values from the trend line equation that ll save a lot of work since we crawled out of the last recession for the longest time people were talking about how economic growth was so much slower than before julian brookes in rolling stone 2012 four years after the start of the great recession nobody would mistake u s economy for a thrumming engine of growth prosperity and human flourishing chris matthews in fortune 2014 gdp growth has been tepid since 2009 just 2 1 per year below the post war average and far below the average for previous recoveries james hamilton at econbrowser 2017 the bureau of economic analysis announced yesterday that u s real gdp grew at a 1 9 annual rate in the fourth quarter well below the historical average of 3 1 per year but close to the 2 1 average since the recovery from the great recession began in 2009 q3 now somehow slow growth has become normal i think it s a dangerous way of thinking to lie to ourselves like that hey i don t want to dwell on how bad things are i just want to understand the economy so i think we have to accept the facts for what they are does this mean we have to accept slow growth as normal no because that s a prediction predictions are not facts the fact is that the economy has been slower since 2009 than it was before now about that before time and the growth then it s more or less recognized that us rgdp is trend stationary marcus nunes told me with real growth averaging about 3 3 from the early 50s to 2007 at trading economics i read that gdp growth rate in the united states averaged 3 21 percent from 1947 until 2018 i know they want to simplify and have just one number and that can be useful but it s not useful if you want to see how growth trends have changed marcus s method is better he figures an average only thru 2007 there is data left over so we can figure an average for the more recent years then we can compare the two averages and see how growth trends have changed trading economics figures the average from a 1947 start that s what i would do it uses all of the commonly available quarterly data marcus figures the average from 1952 to avoid the post war adjustment that makes sense too what doesn t make sense to me is to lump all the years together and get one average value if there was a change somewhere in the middle scott sumner says growth in us living standards slowed after 1973 somewhere in the middle ross perot showed the same graph 1 source ross perot united we stand from when perot was running for president in 1992 so maybe we want to look at economic growth from 1947 to 1973 and from 1973 to 2007 and since 2007 three numbers three growth trends then we can look at all three and compare them that s the kind of thing that makes sense to me so i made a graph like the last one i did yesterday using robert gordon s method but showing the three growth trends graph 2 progressive decline in trend growth unemployment on the x axis rgdp growth on the y axis forget the thin jiggy lines forget all those dots focus on the three thick trend lines the highest one the blue one is for the years 1948 thru 1973 1947 got lost somewhere the red line is lower the economic growth is lower this line shows the trend for the years 1973 thru 2007 the green line is lower yet economic growth is lower yet this line shows the trend for 2007 thru 2017 the average growth rate of the 1948 1973 line is 4 1 the average for the 1973 2007 line is 3 1 the average for 2007 2017 is 1 5 graph 3 average growth rate by period graph 4 average unemployment rate by period at may 07 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 years of economy sbe id blog themes and on the pedestal these words appear my name is ozymandias king of kings look on my works ye mighty and despair nothing beside remains shelley toynbee maintained that the fate of civilizations is determined by their response to the challenges facing them stefan zenker the ideas of economists and political philosophers both when they are right and when they are wrong are more powerful than is commonly understood indeed the world is ruled by little else j m keynes economic policy encourages credit use and discourages the repayment of debt that s how we in the private sector got so indebted nathan becker attempts to describe complex interactions in the economy with overly simple adages can lead to incorrect conclusions meyer and tasci i remarked that a plurality of suffrages is no guarantee of truth where it is at all of difficult discovery as in such cases it is much more likely that it will be found by one than by many descartes i have thought it imp...