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nks permalink comments 374 thursday september 13 2018 links 9 13 18 botching the great recession paul krugman fed interest rate debate misses the bigger picture tim duy the financial crisis and the foundations for macroeconomics larry summers the makings of a 2020 recession and financial crisis roubini rosa an overdue look at the effects of monopoly distortion financial times what do we mean by neutral in monetary policy lael brainard how the brain decides what to do in the face of danger eurekalert radical markets a review stumbling and mumbling rebelling against the clean plate club tim taylor financial panic and credit disruptions in the 2007 09 crisis ben bernanke what s going on with the economy it s the stimulus stupid john cassidy interview with philip jefferson the region swf ubd interfluidity posted by mark thoma on thursday september 13 2018 at 11 41 am in economics links permalink comments 302 tuesday september 11 2018 links 9 11 18 trade inflation targeting and central bank independence piie the stable coin myth barry eichengreen on the debt non spiral paul krugman not in the first three posts it is in the fourth one i grabbed the data on 23 september i find the word debt in mark thoma s links posted in 11 september a dozen days back it would seem debt is no longer a hot topic these days the word debt occurs in the 55th link from the top of the page at least 54 things are more important than debt if debt was the cause of our problems ten years back then it remains the cause of our problems today no matter ten years have passed at september 24 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday september 23 2018 predicting the 1990s robert eisner in 1993 the office of management and budget in its final document released by president george h w bush offered baseline deficit estimates grounded on the relatively pessimistic economic outlook of 51 private blue chip forecasters they foresaw real gdp growth of only 3 in 1993 2 9 in 1994 and then down to 2 5 from 1995 to 1998 unemployment was still projected at 5 7 for 1998 sounds like the same sort of unimaginative estimates we ve seen over the last few years estimates that cannot foresee real gdp growth above 2 meanwhile we re seeing 4 see also mine of march 2016 predicting vigor due to low but rising financial cost at september 23 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday september 21 2018 most articles are not actually meant to be read from what should an economics research article look like by timothy taylor is a research article actually meant to be read word for word beginning to end it seems plausible that if articles have become three times as long then students and researchers living in a world with just 24 hours in a day can read only about one third as many articles my guess is that most articles are not actually meant to be read but only to be skimmed the problems of economics apparently go deeper than we realize at september 21 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday september 17 2018 microfoundations the insights into the financial meltdown that policymakers found most valuable came from scholars such as hyman minsky and charles kindleberger who thought in terms of broad aggregates and made no effort to establish micro foundations the market participants such as ray dalio who were most prescient with respect to the crisis ignored microeconomics as they theorized in terms of debt and credit aggregates larry summers at september 17 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday september 13 2018 a difference of 37 cents apiece i had to look to see how these parts differ from each other source pvc distributors llc at flexpvc com coo china shoulda known at september 13 2018 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday september 9 2018 just use the deflator for the most recent year suppose you want to look at average real gdp for the last ten years you take real gdp add up the last ten values and divide by 10 pretty simple using real gdp the result is 16494 2 suppose they don t give you real gdp how do you do it then one way the way that makes sense to me is to use the deflator and figure the real values yourself then you add up the last ten values and divide by 10 converting nominal gdp the result is 16494 1 okay so there is a rounding error but maybe there is another way take the nominal values they give you add up the last ten values and divide by ten and then convert from nominal to real to do the conversion you just use the deflator for the most recent year that would work right using the most recent deflator value the result is 15441 3 nope do it this way and you get the wrong answer and yet people figure real debt this way at september 09 2018 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels n2r thursday september 6 2018 the big picture is wrong a follow up to my post of 31 august in mine of 11 august i compared cecchetti mohanty and zampolli s average real debt growth of slightly less than 4½ to my 3 79 but my number is for a different time period cmz s number is for 1980 2010 mine is for the 1948 2017 period this invalidates the comparison i want a do over it s been almost a month so i downloaded a new dataset from fred domestic nonfinancial sectors credit market instruments liability level tcmdodns and consumer price index for all urban consumers all items cpiaucsl cmz for some reason use consumer prices to deflate debt i ll use this measure of cpi for that purpose as i m using a new dataset here i want to check and see if i still get the same 3 79 growth figure for the 1948 2017 period i do graph 1 sn2r 1948 2017 i m taking the growth rate number from the trend line equation okay so now the 1980 2010 period graph 2 sn2r 1980 2010 that s a 4 05 growth rate higher than my original 3 79 but still less than cmz s 4 5 why less my number is for us debt theirs is the average for sixteen oecd nations you d expect the numbers to differ but i am troubled by my numbers for us data higher for the period starting in 1980 lower for the period starting in 1948 troubled because my view is that debt growth was not slower before 1980 these numbers don t support my view looks like we ll be doing a few more graphs today oh i should point out that i m leaving the dates off the graphs so that my x axis values start with 1 because adding x axis dates changes the growth rate number starting with 1 excel thinks i mean the first x value starting with 1980 or whatever it seems to think that the first x value occurred back in the year 1 ad not sure why adding the dates changes the growth rate but it does maybe because to show the date 1980 excel needs a value like 29221 excel date numbers are weird okay here s the period before cmz s 1980 2010 graph 3 sn2r 1948 1980 it shows a real debt growth rate of 3 81 low growth early i m not helping myself here and here is the period after cmz s 1980 2010 this one we know is low graph 4 sn2r 2010 2017 it shows 2 33 percent growth for inflation adjusted debt that s low here is the big picture graph 5 based on the standard nominal to real sn2r conversion the black line shows cmz s growth number for the oecd countries for 1980 2010 the three blue lines show my numbers for us debt growth before during and after the 1980 2010 period the red line emphasizes the path of change my graph shows exactly what cecchetti mohanty and zampolli said debt growth was rapid in the 1980 2010 period slower before and after that time so it looks like i was wrong saying debt growth was not slower before 1980 so it looks however we are looking at growth numbers for real debt and the numbers are figured as if debt is a flow variable debt is not a flow variable the calculation produces erroneous results the big picture is wrong the debt growth rates above are based on inflation adjusted debt but the inflation adjustment is done incorrectly it is based on sn2r the standard nominal to real calculation let s see what happens to the growth numbers when we use an2r the calculation for stock variables that i went over last time first look at the overall number using the same fred data as above this time i get a 4 74 growth rate for real debt last time i got 3 79 real debt growth is almost a full percentage point higher this time graph 6 okay there is a discrepancy in mine of 31 august when i figured my yardstick graph i was satisfied with the result because the start point and end point were right here the end point is obviously wrong my growth number must be too high because the red line is too high at the end probably should have been using a compound annual growth rate cagr calculation well we can do that some other time meanwhile look at this graph with me the two lines run close together until about year 25 so from year 1 to 25 the 4 74 number is good from year 25 to 43 real debt increases faster than the red curve the 4 74 number is too low from year 43 to the end debt growth is much slower than the red curve s estimate except that between years 55 and 61 the two lines run close together so the 4 74 number is good now look at the graph again using year 43 as a break point before year 43 the cagr must be greater than 4 74 after year 43 the cagr must be less than 4 74 in other words real debt growth was faster in the early years and slower in the later years this supports my view so maybe i m not wrong maybe cecchetti and all are wrong about the growth of real debt let s put dates on the graph and look at it again graph 7 the two lines run close and 4 74 is a good number until 1972 debt growth is faster than 4 74 from 1972 to 1988 about then after the late 1980s real debt growth slows if you make 1980 your break point much of the rapid 1972 1988 growth gets counted in the 1980 2010 period however debt growth has been slowing since 1988 so i still want to say cecchetti and all are probably wrong about 1980 2010 being the period of most rapid debt growth i left the trend line equation on the graph so you can see how it changes when dates are added to the x axis obviously the growth rate doesn t really change just because you put dates on a graph ignore the trend line equation on graph 7 let s break up the growth by period as we did above before 1980 graph 8 before 1980 real debt figured my way shows 5 56 annual growth that s more than a percentage point higher than cmz s almost 4 5 claimed for the 1980 2010 period 1980 2010 graph 9 for the 1980 2010 period real debt figured my way shows a growth rate of 3 74 percent this is three quarters of a point lower than cmz s 4 5 figure for the period and nearly two percentage points less than debt growth for the 1948 1980 period shown on graph 8 2010 2017 graph 10 two point one four percent real debt growth in the years after 2010 and by the way in these last three graphs the end point discrepancy seems to have cleared up the growth rate numbers are good to summarize these an2r debt growth numbers graph 11 based on the alternative nominal to real an2r conversion there is a massive difference between this and graph 5 when real debt is properly calculated its growth rate is seen to be slowing real debt growth is not fastest in the 1980 2010 period it is fastest in the early period and has been slowing since now you have to rethink everything at september 06 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels cmz n2r newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the sea...