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the idea we re ahead of the game in the early years and behind the game thereafter the standard of living graph indicates our standing for each year separately it doesn t add last year s number to this year s for each year it shows how that year s borrowing and that year s debt service payment tally with that year s income in life we may take things a year at a time or a day at a time but if we re ahead every year for ten years or so things seem pretty good and if we re behind every year without ever a good one things can seem pretty bad so i want to look at the cumulative effect of being ahead of the game or behind it due to the effects of borrowing and loan repayment on income graph 3 on the earlier graph the standard of living graph we start at 11 000 a thousand dollars above our income level over the next ten years the blue line gradually falls and eventually gets down to our income level that year there is no gain on this graph the cumulative gain or loss graph the blue line starts at the 1000 level because our standard of living was 1000 above our income level over the next ten years the blue line rises as we add in gains from later years but it rises more and more slowly because each year s gain is less than the one the year before after 10 years the cumulative gain reaches a maximum just below the 5000 level on the graph at the maximum the line is just about flat because the gain from borrowing has just about dissipated and our standard of living is just about equal to our income in the years thereafter our debt service is more than the 1000 we borrow each year as a result our standard of living runs below our 10 000 income level we re behind the game and each year is a loss when you take those annual losses and add them to our cumulative gain or loss graph what you get is a shockingly large cumulative loss and yes i checked that 100 number 100 per year per capita borrowing in 1956 at october 11 2019 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday october 9 2019 non sequitur high debt low demand the public sector should borrow to fill the spending gap cecchetti et al again 2011 pdf page 4 in principle as highly indebted borrowers stop spending less indebted borrowers or lenders could take up the slack for example wealthy households could purchase goods at reduced prices and cash rich firms could invest at improved expected return but they need not as eggertson and krugman 2011 point out it is the asymmetry between those who are highly indebted and those who are not that leads to a decline in aggregate demand those authors suggest that in order to avoid high unemployment and deflation the public sector should borrow to fill the spending gap left by private sector borrowers as the latter repair their balance sheets here s what i get from that paragraph there is a lot of debt higher debt service or a decision to cut back on borrowing means people with lots of debt must spend less than they did before people without a lot of debt could spend more and take up the slack but they do not the asymmetry between items 2 and 3 leads to a decline in aggregate demand and the public sector should borrow to fill the spending gap left by private sector borrowers but you can t really expect savers to turn around and bail out debtors just for the sake of improving the economy people are not that altruistic so it is nonsense to bring up the asymmetry between those who are highly indebted and those who are not and say that the asymmetry rather than the cost of the debt is what leads to a decline in aggregate demand don t fall for it they re bullshitting you hey look over here there s an asymmetry here that s making people spend less what no the problem is not that people who are heavily in debt cannot afford to fill the spending gap and people who are not don t want to that s not the problem the problem is there is so much debt it s choking off spending the problem is the debt asymmetry is the distraction the problem is the high level of debt servicing it takes money that people would have spent on other things so spending is listless aggregate demand is listless and the economy is listless since the private sector cannot solve the problem eggertson and krugman say the public sector should borrow to fill the spending gap who else can fill the gap the public sector of course again no when did we decide we should fill the spending gap we didn t the spending gap is not the problem the high level of debt is the problem the spending gap is a result of the debt problem the spending gap is a result eggertson and krugman want to fix a result but what we need to do is fix the problem eggertson and what s his name shift the focus away from the high level of debt they shift the focus from the problem to the consequence a decline in aggregate demand and call this the problem and then they propose a solution to this problem but it isn t the problem it is a consequence of the problem therefore their proposed solution is a non sequitur it doesn t follow from the given facts at october 09 2019 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 years of economy sbe id blog themes and on the pedestal these words appear my name is ozymandias king of kings look on my works ye mighty and despair nothing beside remains shelley toynbee maintained that the fate of civilizations is determined by their response to the challenges facing them stefan zenker the ideas of economists and political philosophers both when they are right and when they are wrong are more powerful than is commonly understood indeed the world is ruled by little else j m keynes economic policy encourages credit use and discourages the repayment of debt that s how we in the private sector got so indebted nathan becker attempts to describe complex interactions in the economy with overly simple adages can lead to incorrect conclusions meyer and tasci i remarked that a plurality of suffrages is no guarantee of truth where it is at all of difficult discovery as in such cases it is much more likely that it will be found by one than by many descartes i have thought it important not only to explain my own point of view but also to show in what respects it departs from the prevailing theory j m keynes blogthemes blog archive 2025 136 october 4 september 19 august 12 july 6 june 10 may 11 april 23 march 19 february 11 january 21 2024 100 december 15 november 9 october 14 september 10 august 7 july 12 june 7 may 3 march 13 february 7 january 3 2023 118 december 6 november 15 october 8 september 8 august 4 july 3 june 16 may 15 april 12 march 8 february 12 january 11 2022 159 december 22 november 17 october 13 september 6 august 4 july 9 june 12 may 4 april 11 march 22 february 15 january 24 2021 204 december 8 november 21 october 15 september 17 august 11 july 13 june 22 may 19 april 17 march 22 february 18 january 21 2020 139 december 20 november 20 october 8 september 11 august 13 july 8 may 2 april 18 march 16 february 19 january 4 2019 202 december 9 november 13 october 18 samuelson and solow 1960 google starts like this now looks like vigor to me testing my dsr estimate estimating household debt service back to 1947 that old sumner post again mollifying america establishing parameters for debt debt service interest principal just ask fred to jackie deanna will jan randall jon and kevin from a woodford interview a hundred dollars debt effects non sequitur high debt low demand the public without debt economies cannot grow debt as a multiple of funds readily available for loans vs credit cards september 15 august 16 july 20 june 18 may 15 april 27 march 25 february 12 january 14 2018 202 december 12 november 13 october 20 september 11 august 8 july 8 june 19 may 20 april 30 march 31 february 30 labels gothedistance 1966 3 inflation target 400k smoothing an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis apr13 arnold j toynbee attitude brooks adams civilization and decay calculating labor share civilization cmz cost pressure and the decline of civilization cycle of civilization debt and inequality debt ceiling 2023 debt service before 1980 debt to gdp companion economic concerns drive political action economic decline as the source of polarization equilibrium excessive finance fall of rome fallacy of composition finance before 1960 financial cost push financial cost push in the 1950s financialization in the 19th century fix the economy google s ai overview and units household debt in the long run we are all dead income inequality industrial productivity july 2021 keynes on civilization labor share levels labor share of personal income little piggies making use of the cycle of civ math ulc measuring profits milton fried man more debt than money is policy n2r nobody says this stuff but me but that doesn t make it wrong not falsifiable on average productivity profit v interest prosperity quigley evolution of civ real to real debt to gdp s s 1960 secular cycles slow growth terms of the times the 2021 inflation panic the continuing cost problem the cost push problem the end of life as we know it the plan the trump depression they think like bankers throwback too much opinion and not enough econ whack a mole what is political economy whelan s guide report abuse home search this blog this work is licensed under a creative commons attribution noncommercial noderivatives 4 0 international license for reference armstrongeconomics on ancient interest rates michael hudson on ancient interest rates schmelzing 700 years of real interest rates schmelzing the suprasecular stagnation schmelzing eight centuries of global real interest rates commentary on the long trend of interest rates and schmelzing s work at the daily reckoning when did sustained growth start europe s rise to riches voxeu harbingers of modernity monetary injections and european economic growth 1492 1790 from convergence to divergence portuguese economic growth 1527 1850 religious change preceded economic change in the 20th century economics of medieval guilds with links taking malthus seriously helps to explain the economic stagnation from the dark ages to the industrial revolution andy blunden s home page on ancient rome ancient rome s collapse is written into arctic ice at the atlantic via reddit also via reddit the ups downs of ancient rome s economy all 1 900 years at open culture see links at end of article capitalism without classes the case of classical rome rome during the last two centuries of the re...