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Text of the page (random words):
as much as possible the exportation of the produce of domestic industry and that its two great engines for enriching the country have been restraints upon importation and encouragements to exportation by means of high duties or prohibitions upon the one and of drawbacks or bounties upon the other the effect of restraints upon importation is to cause the inhabitants of any country to make at a greater expense what they can buy at a less and to pay somewhat dearer to their own manufacturers than they would to foreign manufacturers and this operation being performed in favour of several different manufactures and paid for more or less by every individual in the kingdom occasions a very considerable aggregate loss to the society at june 28 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday june 27 2025 growth and resilience according to google ngrams there used to be a lot of talk about good growth these days there is little these days there is more talk about economic resilience than there is about good growth according to google s oxford languages resilience is the ability to recover quickly from difficulties or to spring back into shape either of those definitions could be applied to our economy maybe our economy does show resilience these days but resilience means only occasional good growth economists are giving up on growth robert j gordon says there was virtually no growth before 1750 he says there s no guarantee that growth will continue indefinitely and he says the good growth of the past 250 years could be a unique episode in human history this is what someone would say who has given up on restoring health and vigor to the economy in an article from boston s npr news station wbur ecological economist kate raworth is described as subscribing to the theories of donella meadows who said growth was a stupid goal and impossible to sustain and dietrich vollrath economist and blogger says slow economic growth is a sign of success it is as if these people are trying to justify the inability of economists and policymakers to restore economic vigor such people are not caretakers of the possibility of civilization at june 27 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday june 25 2025 good growth redefined in my previous post i quoted tv show president josiah bartlet from 25 years ago who said gdp growth of 2 to 2½ percent is lackluster even anemic and that growth in the 4½ to 5 percent range is considered robust but not spectacular 25 years ago 2½ percent growth was thought lackluster sickly weak and unhealthy in current thinking 2½ percent growth is considered good today s definition of good growth is half what it was 25 years ago they moved the goalposts keynes said economists are the caretakers of the possibility of civilization in other words economists do not create civilization they make it possible less optimistically we can say that by holding to failed ideas economists make civilization impossible a depression is a long severe recession a dark age is a long severe depression in the dark age civilization is impossible at june 25 2025 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest saturday june 14 2025 good growth defined from the west wing s1e17 march 22 2000 president bartlet speaking historically 2 to 2 5 gdp expansion is classified as lackluster even anemic economic growth 4 5 to 5 is needed to be considered robust and not even spectacular at june 14 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday june 13 2025 the fundamentals of our economy are sound think so open up benjamin friedman s 1986 paper increasing indebtedness and financial stability in the united states search for the word recession and read some of the sentences that turn up at june 13 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday june 11 2025 the emperor has no need for senators impeach trump before he dissolves the senate at june 11 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday june 6 2025 all employees federal the may jobs report came out today the graph shows the number of federal employees since december 2021 not seasonally adjusted i cut and pasted the dates for december 2024 and may 2025 essentially the change since trump returned to office fred source data since 1939 https fred stlouisfed org series ceu9091000001 the graph shows the number of federal employees falling from 3 020 in december 2024 to 2 950 in may 2025 but the units are thousands of persons so we are talking a change from 3 020 000 to 2 950 000 employees that amounts to a decrease of 70 000 employees in five months or 14 000 per month on average at that rate all federal employees could be gone in about 210 7 months that s 17 years 6 months and 21 days give or take if they keep at it 7 days a week at june 06 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday june 5 2025 i object to this news slide the scrollbar right to see more or just click the image gaio reminds me that the federal reserve the fed returns a portion of its earnings to the u s treasury every year reuters march 24 2023 says the fed payment to treasury was 76 billion in 2022 and 109 billion in 2021 amounts like that would cover a lot of data gathering cost at the bls if they just kinda bypassed the treasury to do its job the fed needs economic data from bls and other sources how are they going to fight inflation if they don t get the data from bls seems to me if they need the data they can justify spending those billions to get it even if it takes most of the profits the fed would otherwise have paid to the treasury at june 05 2025 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday june 1 2025 the corporate income tax after tax profit federal revenue from the corporate tax https fred stlouisfed org graph g 1ja1b corporate profit https fred stlouisfed org graph g 1jnwn at june 01 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 years of economy sbe id blog themes and on the pedestal these words appear my name is ozymandias king of kings look on my works ye mighty and despair nothing beside remains shelley toynbee maintained that the fate of civilizations is determined by their response to the challenges facing them stefan zenker the ideas of economists and political philosophers both when they are right and when they are wrong are more powerful than is commonly understood indeed the world is ruled by little else j m keynes economic policy encourages credit use and discourages the repayment of debt that s how we in the private sector got so indebted nathan becker attempts to describe complex interactions in the economy with overly simple adages can lead to incorrect conclusions meyer and tasci i remarked that a plurality of suffrages is no guarantee of truth where it is at all of difficult discovery as in such cases it is much more likely that it will be found by one than by many descartes i have thought it important not only to explain my own point of view but also to show in what respects it departs from the prevailing theory j m keynes blogthemes blog archive 2025 136 october 4 september 19 august 12 july 6 june 10 apropos a view of the causes of our late prosperity and of growth and resilience good growth redefined good growth defined the fundamentals of our economy are sound the emperor has no need for senators all employees federal i object to this news the corporate income tax after tax profit may 11 april 23 march 19 february 11 january 21 2024 100 december 15 november 9 october 14 september 10 august 7 july 12 june 7 may 3 march 13 february 7 january 3 2023 118 december 6 november 15 october 8 september 8 august 4 july 3 june 16 may 15 april 12 march 8 february 12 january 11 2022 159 december 22 november 17 october 13 september 6 august 4 july 9 june 12 may 4 april 11 march 22 february 15 january 24 2021 204 december 8 november 21 october 15 september 17 august 11 july 13 june 22 may 19 april 17 march 22 february 18 january 21 2020 139 december 20 november 20 october 8 september 11 august 13 july 8 may 2 april 18 march 16 february 19 january 4 2019 202 december 9 november 13 october 18 september 15 august 16 july 20 june 18 may 15 april 27 march 25 february 12 january 14 2018 202 december 12 november 13 october 20 september 11 august 8 july 8 june 19 may 20 april 30 march 31 february 30 labels gothedistance 1966 3 inflation target 400k smoothing an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis apr13 arnold j toynbee attitude brooks adams civilization and decay calculating labor share civilization cmz cost pressure and the decline of civilization cycle of civilization debt and inequality debt ceiling 2023 debt service before 1980 debt to gdp companion economic concerns drive political action economic decline as the source of polarization equilibrium excessive finance fall of rome fallacy of composition finance before 1960 financial cost push financial cost push in the 1950s financialization in the 19th century fix the economy google s ai overview and units household debt in the long run we are all dead income inequality industrial productivity july 2021 keynes on civilization labor share levels labor share of personal income little piggies making use of the cycle of civ math ulc measuring profits milton fried man more debt than money is policy n2r nobody says this stuff but me but that doesn t make it wrong not falsifiable on average productivity profit v interest prosperity quigley evolution of civ real to real debt to gdp s s 1960 secular cycles slow growth terms of the times the 2021 inflation panic the continuing cost problem the cost push problem the end of life as we know it the plan the trump depression they think like bankers throwback too much opinion and not enough econ whack a mole what is political economy whelan s guide report abuse home search this blog this work is licensed under a creative commons attribution noncommercial noderivatives 4 0 international license for reference armstrongeconomics on ancient interest rates michael hudson on ancient interest rates schmelzing 700 years of real interest rates schmelzing the suprasecular stagnation schmelzing eight centuries of global real interest rates commentary on the long trend of interest rates and schmelzin...