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Text of the page (random words):
e margin left auto margin right auto img border 0 data original height 293 data original width 520 src https blogger googleusercontent com img b r29vz2xl avvxsehkl9dbm3wbf1avywjl5sg7zkob2dzkw09yby8jzdi28tmcugw ha8ubjb76qmlmovmsqs9pb5iqoifbom5jeophj4r i3mv6bnv5gisgchrirzqlmjqy03kgjhlqie71_uavw13dyudnqu3xcd1u86la89cy2z2mnvzwbsj3iqyjiy5fiyvv0ljnchht4 s16000 inflation 20and 20the 20interest 20rate 20 20jan 202020 20to 20aug 202025 20 5bfred 201mcyy 5d 20fit png a td tr tr td class tr caption style text align center a href https fred stlouisfed org graph g 1mcyy graph 2 a january 2020 to august 2025 td tr tbody table p the rate of inflation came down from the june 2022 peak until june 2023 when it hit that hard surface just above the 3 percent level with the interest rate running high since august 2023 inflation was not free to increase but still refused to go below the 3 percent level until mid 2024 p p inflation fluctuated in small steps until march 2024 the fed however was still holding the interest rate high and unchanged at 5 33 percent and at that point the forces of inflation seemed to give up the blue line shows a gradual but persistent almost purposeful decline from march to september of 2024 p p the fed evidently noticed this fall of inflation to slightly below the 2 5 percent level and relaxed ever so slightly they reduced the interest rate a little in september 2024 and again in october p p in october the rate of inflation started rising again p p in every month from september 2024 to january 2025 the federal reserve reduced the interest rate and every month from october 2024 to january 2025 the rate of inflation increased p p the fed acted responsibly they did not reduce the interest rate until inflation went below the 3 percent level and they stopped reducing the interest rate when the rising inflation reached 3 percent from january thru august of 2025 the fed has held the interest rate steady at 4 33 percent waiting for inflation to return to the 2 percent target level p p br p h3 style text align left the fed thought they had things under control the economy didn t cooperate h3 p the fed last reduced the interest rate in january 2025 they held it steady from february to august where the data ends p p during this second phase of high but steady interest rates the rate of inflation p ul style text align left li fell from 3 percent in january 2025 to below 2 5 percent in march li li stabilized near 2 4 percent from march 2025 to may and then li li rose in june and july near the 2 75 percent rate and approaching 3 percent again li ul p before reducing the interest rate further the fed was waiting to see what inflation would do between march and september 2024 the fed waited 5 months with inflation falling every month and did not reduce the interest rate until inflation went below 3 percent i and continued going down i p p in september 2024 the fed was satisfied that they had inflation under control and reduced the interest rate the next month inflation increased the fed remained confident and continued reducing the interest rate in small steps but inflation continued rising until january 2025 when it again reached 3 percent since january the fed has not changed the rate of interest p p p h3 style text align left that hard surface is the inflation target that our economy wants h3 p the federal reserve still trusts its 2 percent inflation target and still wants to see the rate of inflation running close to that level p p but the economy has a mind of its own and wants a 3 percent inflation target or perhaps 3 3 percent the rate of inflation hit that hard surface in june 2023 stayed there until july 2024 and even now is not far from 3 percent p p there is a contest going on a struggle between the federal reserve and economic forces a contest between the fed s 2 percent target and the 3 percent target that our economy seems to want how could this have happened p p do you have too much money no then the problem is not too much money chasing too few goods the problem is not demand pull but cost push inflation you know the inflation that makes the economy slower rather than faster the inflation that no one studies instead they say there s no such thing p p too much money leads to too much spending and too much spending pulls prices up that s not the problem if we had too much money people would be saying the economy is great p p our problem is not enough money everyone knows it but the billionaires we solve the problem by using credit by borrowing money by accumulating debt the more we rely on credit the greater is the cost of finance and the greater the cost of finance the more it eats into wages and profits p p and the more the cost of finance eats into wages and profits the more we have to increase our reliance on credit it s not a sustainable situation and everyone knows it p p over time debt accumulates more rapidly than income and financial cost grows i think that s what happened around the time of the pandemic before the pandemic the 2 percent inflation target was working during the pandemic we did a lot of borrowing consumers did and businesses and so did government and now after the pandemic our debt to income ratios are higher and our financial costs are higher p p before the pandemic the 2 percent inflation target was still working but costs increased so 2 percent isn t enough anymore that s why the endogenous 3 percent inflation target arose and that higher target is the reason the fed has such difficulty getting inflation down to 2 percent p p it s more than 2 years now inflation stopped falling in june 2023 the fed s continuing reliance on its 2 percent target and its attempt to push inflation below the endogenous 3 percent target has slowed and weakened our economy the recent large downward revision in job growth may be just one of the consequences p the arthurian http www blogger com profile 16501331051089400601 noreply blogger com 0 tag blogger com 1999 blog 7622169847760708760 post 2802652083115944206 2025 09 09t04 00 00 292 04 00 2025 09 09t06 41 40 338 04 00 plunging lumber prices pose warning sign for u s economy wsj p br following up a href https econcrit blogspot com 2025 09 unemployment as of august html as promised a here is a short list of crucial topics from today s google news p p br p h3 style text align left span style background color fcff01 inflation span still a problem h3 ul style text align left li a href https www politico com news 2025 08 29 inflation is climbing trump might still get lower rates 00535482 b inflation is climbing trump might still get lower rates b a 29 august 2025 politico li ul p p h3 style text align left span style background color fcff01 jobs span largely a result of economic uncertainty it didn t have to happen h3 ul style text align left li b a href https www newsweek com job cuts trump economy employment 2124396 august job cuts leap in blow to trump economy a b 4 september 2025 newsweek li li b a href https www cnbc com 2025 09 08 cnbc daily open us jobs report in august reveals damage the fed should mend html cnbc daily open u s jobs report in august reveals damage the fed should mend a b 8 september 2025 cnbc li ul p br p h3 style text align left span style background color fcff01 tariffs span are developing into a problem on schedule h3 ul style text align left li b a href https www bbc com news articles c3rvdxz9589o the us factory spending 100 000 a month more due to tariffs a b 7 hours ago bbc news li ul p p h3 style text align left trump dissing the fed span style background color fcff01 a behavioral problem span making things worse h3 ul style text align left li b a href https www reuters com business finance trumps calls dismiss fed governors undermine independence citadel ceo writes wsj 2025 09 08 trump s calls to dismiss fed governors undermine independence citadel ceo writes in wsj op ed a b 8 september 2025 reuters li li a href https www nytimes com 2025 09 08 business dealbook griffin trump fed html b ken griffin speaks out against trump s attacks on the fed b a 8 september 2025 ny times li li b a href https www wsj com opinion trumps risky game with the fed 1d727c53 trump s risky game with the fed a b 7 september 2025 wsj li ul p br p h3 style text align left span style background color fcff01 and evidence span that the trump recession is going to be a depression this is new now i m worried h3 ul style text align left li a href https www lesprom com en news lumber_price_slump_signals_broader_slowdown_in_u_s_housing_and_wood_demand_120396 b lumber price slump signals broader slowdown in u s housing and wood demand b a 8 september 2025 lesprom li li b a href https seekingalpha com news 4493087 plunging lumber prices pose warning sign for u s economy wsj plunging lumber prices pose warning sign for u s economy wsj a b 8 september 2025 seeking alpha li ul p p p remember inflation had not settled down to the 2 percent target as of trump s second inauguration in january of this year inflation was still a problem then on top of that inflation trump has added the tariffs tariffs which increase prices more and slow the economy besides and now despite the inflation despite the tariffs despite all the rising prices lumber prices are plunging it is a warning sign indeed it warns of a most severe slowing of the economy p p economic stability is a good thing prices rising a little is a little troubling prices rising more because someone decided to put tariffs on everything is more troubling and worrisome because the tariff is not normal policy many of trump s policies and decisions are unusual and worrisome the economy does not respond well to abnormal and worrisome behavior p p the most important point i want to make is that optimists may think musk was right when he said his work at doge would a href https www vox com politics 381637 elon musk donald trump 2024 election temporary hardship necessarily involve some temporary hardship a p p optimists may agree with the anonymous twitter user who said p blockquote p if trump succeeds in forcing through mass deportations combined with elon hacking away at the government firing people and reducing the deficit there will be an initial severe overreaction in the economy market will tumble but when the storm passes and everyone realizes we are on sounder footing there will be a rapid recovery to a healthier sustainable economy p blockquote p i severe overreaction i the anonymous user says but i severe i is an understatement and i overreaction i is an incorrect assessment it will not be an i over i reaction finally the anonymous user s references to i sounder i footing i rapid i recovery and a i healthier i i sustainable i economy are baseless overly optimistic assessments p p such optimism about the economy these days is a dangerous thing if there are signs that our economy is moving into recession or worse into depression our only sane move is to reverse course immediately and rescue ourselves from the slump before it is too late the trump administration will say they warned us about temporary hardship they will expect us to give their policy time to work i but we are doing that now i p p we must not give the economy time to get worse and worse again p p the problem that must be resolved is the growth of finance the solution is to recognize that the growth of finance increases financial cost that debt is a mechanism which moves income from borrowers to lenders and that a href https econcrit blogspot com 2021 11 arthurian theory in brief financial html financial cost pressure drives the long term decline of our economy a once these principles are well understood economic policy must be changed to help people get out of debt not to encourage people to go into debt and remain in debt as existing policy has done for the past 75 years p p p the arthurian http www blogger com profile 16501331051089400601 noreply blogger com 0 tag blogger com 1999 blog 7622169847760708760 post 3332028711266371389 2025 09 08t04 00 00 002 04 00 2025 09 08t04 00 00 123 04 00 hemingway blockquote the first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency the second is war both bring a temporary prosperity both bring a permanent ruin but both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists br div style font size x small ernest hemingway notes on the next war i esquire i sept 1935 quoted by a href https bpb us e1 wpmucdn com sites northwestern edu dist 6 5500 files 2021 04 75supplydemandofinflation pdf robert j gordon a div blockquote the arthurian http www blogger com profile 16501331051089400601 noreply blogger com 0 tag blogger com 1999 blog 7622169847760708760 post 584268390778659490 2025 09 07t04 08 00 000 04 00 2025 09 07t04 08 07 597 04 00 friedman free to choose page 309 p p blockquote style text align center p a href https archive org details freetochoosepers00frie page 308 mode 2up q 22greatest threat to human freedom 22 span style font size medium we have been forgetting the basic truth that the greatest br threat to human freedom is the concentration of power span a p blockquote br the arthurian http www blogger com profile 16501331051089400601 noreply blogger com 0 tag blogger com 1999 blog 7622169847760708760 post 8189724483536705193 2025 09 06t07 08 00 001 04 00 2025 09 06t07 08 43 857 04 00 is this stuff still called news p span style font size medium span p blockquote span style font size medium b a lot of people think that covid is amazing trump said referencing the vaccine not the disease b a href https www politico com news 2025 09 05 trump is back to touting his covid shot 00548433 politico a span blockquote p p p br comedy maybe p the arthurian http www blogger com profile 16501331051089400601 noreply blogger com 0 tag blogger com 1999 blog 7622169847760708760 post 9146989518385072064 2025 09 05t21 56 00 007 04 00 2025 09 07t13 27 14 002 04 00 unemployment as of august p i made the graph tall this time instead of wide br br p p p table align center cellpadding 0 cellspacing 0 class tr caption container style margin left auto margin right auto tbody tr td style text align center a href https blogger googleusercontent com img b r29vz2xl avvxsejybmwsk5iqp1stodssnwcjmnrbzcljdbezxh23bezftax4gqnatucnhkdnxstp4zq7hfp1qodmyzwovwumjj2fqnojxgcktq51kdwxsefnxmzuekfh67ozwxraswdtkcsunzhqgd2kgudp10kp5vlz4cthxjdfcbfobpb9dvucit7kjyhysp9y70fflhs s600 unemployment 20since 202009 png style margin left auto margin right auto img border 0 data original height 600 data original width 450 height 400 src https blogger googleusercontent com img b r29vz2xl avvxsejybmwsk5iqp1stodssnwcjmnrbzcljdbezxh23bezftax4gqnatucnhkdnxstp4zq7hfp1qodmyzwovwumjj2fqnojxgcktq51kdwxsefnxmzuekfh67ozwxraswdtkcsunzhqgd2kgudp10kp5vlz4cthxjdfcbfobpb9dvucit7kjyhysp9y70fflhs w300 h400 unemployment 20since 202009 png width 300 a td tr tr td class tr caption style text align center unemployment 2009 to 2025 td tr tbody table br p i made the graph tall t...
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