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td economics td economics canada skip to main content canada us global français forecasts financial markets economy commentaries government finance policy labour real estate consumer trade business investment provincial local analysis commodities industry future ready economy media td economics analysis covering the globe feature latest research dollars and sense dire straits the central bank calculus of the iran oil shock the iran conflict has triggered a major energy supply shock pushing oil prices meaningfully higher and extending the inflation impulse beyond what was initially expected central banks on both sides of the border are likely to look through the supply shock provided a longer term peace deal is reached in the coming weeks we still see a narrow window for the fed to deliver on two more rate cuts in q4 april 16 2026 trending ceasefire brings some relief to crude prices but diplomatic setbacks keep risks elevated u s iran talks over the weekend ended without an agreement raising doubts about whether the current ceasefire can evolve into lasting de escalation crude prices have remained volatile since last week s ceasefire news initially rebounding before sliding again as markets pin hopes on a resumption of talks we ve updated our two main oil price scenarios baseline and prolonged disruption to reflect the most recent developments april 15 2026 trending canadian employment march 2026 canada s economy added 14k jobs in march 0 1 m m more or less in line consensus expectations for a 15k gain employment was essentially flat across job types with full time employment edging down slightly 1k while private sector employment rose by 15k on the month april 10 2026 media watch derek burleton discusses how higher oil prices are complicating the outlook for rates and the economy as oil prices stay elevated the path forward for the bank of canada and the u s fed is getting murkier derek burleton deputy chief economist at td bank group discusses the impact of higher energy costs on monetary policy and whether it s creating an inflation problem or a growth problem for canada s economy april 02 2026 trending every time is different 2026 s energy shock we re staring down the fourth major economic shock since 2019 covid the war in ukraine sweeping new u s tariffs and now the war in iran for good reason the past few weeks have brought back memories of the inflation surge in early 2022 which was exacerbated by the surge in oil prices due to the war in ukraine however as important as the similarities are to 2022 it s also important to take stock of what is different april 01 2026 previous next updated publications updated publications 2026 prince edward island budget april 15 2026 updated publications weekly bottom line april 10 2026 updated publications 2026 ontario budget march 26 2026 updated publications provincial housing market outlook steep downgrades amid persistent housing headwinds march 26 2026 previous next updated publications 2026 prince edward island budget april 15 2026 updated publications weekly bottom line april 10 2026 updated publications 2026 ontario budget march 26 2026 updated publications provincial housing market outlook steep downgrades amid persistent housing headwinds march 26 2026 view more updated publications latest research latest research dollars and sense dire straits the central bank calculus of the iran oil shock april 16 2026 economy canada td credit debit card spending march 25 2026 future ready economy data centers in a grid constrained world challenges and opportunities for canada march 23 2026 future ready economy narrowing of the wealth gap outcomes of canadian households post pandemic march 11 2026 previous next latest research dollars and sense dire straits the central bank calculus of the iran oil shock april 16 2026 economy canada td credit debit card spending march 25 2026 future ready economy data centers in a grid constrained world challenges and opportunities for canada march 23 2026 future ready economy narrowing of the wealth gap outcomes of canadian households post pandemic march 11 2026 view more latest research commentaries real estate canadian existing home sales march 2026 april 16 2026 trending canadian employment march 2026 april 10 2026 economy canadian merchandise trade february 2026 april 02 2026 commentaries canadian quarterly gdp january 2026 march 31 2026 previous next real estate canadian existing home sales march 2026 april 16 2026 trending canadian employment march 2026 april 10 2026 economy canadian merchandise trade february 2026 april 02 2026 commentaries canadian quarterly gdp january 2026 march 31 2026 view more commentaries privacy security legal accessibility about td economics