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the spouse of an undergraduate student that i d like to be able to refer future students to i don t really have a place to put it online so i m putting it here occasionally on this blog i have accepted posts from students explaining how economics relates to specific aspects of their job i don t encourage that because it s talking shop anyway i mostly teach principles of macroeconomics in there we talk about money one of the simpler topics but still a new one to many students is that money is broader than currency for example checks are money but they aren t currency a more nuanced topic is inside vs outside money outside money is currency printed by the government or its representatives and reserves issued by central banks inside money is everything else checks savings accounts cds repurchase agreements and so on they re called inside and outside because inside money is created by us doing our thing inside the financial system while outside money comes from outside the financial system most students and many people out in the public think outside money is a lot more important than it actually is as i sit here i m trying to recall but i don t think i ve used outside money since the weekend but i ve payed bills all week with inside money an even subtler topic is that people will create inside money out of anything handy if there isn t enough inside or outside money around to suit their needs this is what we do when we write each other iou s the classic textbook example of this is pow s using cigarettes as money in the camps so i told my undergraduates that story which was written up in a famous paper about 70 years ago by an economist who ended up as a pow in germany in world war ii when i was finished a student raised her hand and said they still do that in survival school in the air force i was a bit shocked but she explained that her husband had been through it he agreed to let me interview him about it and here s what i got this is mg s story air force pilots are required to do survival training 3 stints once in their career for about 20 days in total one of those exercises is called sere survival evasion resistance escape the training is done at a remote location in washington a team of about 8 pilots goes through the training together they are abandoned in the wilderness one morning with 2 mre s each they need to survive for a week they are also allowed to bring a small pack with extra goodies mg was told by pilots who had been through the training before to bring cigarettes mg told them he didn t smoke the veteran pilots told him it didn t matter pilots used cigarettes as money during sere so mg brought 5 packs other pilots brought even more many of the cigarettes in the group were quickly smoked by the smokers that s one thing i tell principles students about what gets used as inside money it should not be readily consumable other features are more obviously related to money small light of fairly certain quality divisible into small enough units low rate of depreciation and so on after a while inflation set in the price of a bag of skittles eventually rose to 3 cigarettes cigarettes were also traded on the spot for actual currency or in exchange for jobs during sere training cigarettes were even traded for large sums of money to be repaid after training was over this is very much like how repurchase agreements work in the real world a firm gives up an asset to another firm for money today with an agreement to repurchase at a known price on a future date in the meantime the buyer gets to keep any income generated plus the price difference repurchase agreements are often done in the real world in multi billion dollar transactions in the sere training the exchange rate hit 1 cigarette handed over immediately for 100 payable in cash when they returned to base mg saw a transaction like that finalized posted by dr tufte at 4 27 2016 06 03 00 pm 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest peak pricing at universal studios hollywood normally i don t post on this blog at all but an old student sent in something that they felt was appropriate and i can t really make them write a post can i this concerns the new pricing policy at universal studios hollywood airlines have changed prices with demand for decades but for theme parks it has usually been one price for all now they will discount for people buying online with a bigger discount for people who buy online and book for a historically slow day of the year as an economist i find the explanation that this is a form of peak pricing like used by hotels or uber to be a bit lacking my reason for this is that the cost of going to the park always included the monetary price of the ticket plus the non monetary price of standing in lines for me the park cost more on busy days no matter what but the article also mentions that universal will use this pricing method to help manage its operations to me this actually makes more sense at off peak times costs are low for customers both in monetary and non monetary terms yet the park still needs to be staffed my guess is that this new policy is helping them get a handle on overstaffing on slow days hands down the emptiest park i was ever in was disneyworld on the tuesday before thanksgiving kids were in school there were no conferences in orlando because of the holiday and vacationers had yet to arrive my wife and i did the whole park before 5 in the afternoon with several rides gone on more than once posted by dr tufte at 4 27 2016 05 33 00 pm 5 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 4 24 2016 the growing demand for connected devices and iot you can hardly go through a day without being personally in touch with a connected device most of us carry a smart device or own at least one device that is connected to the internet i m especially interested in the growing market for connected devices also known as the internet of things iot given i m currently employed by a major manufacturer of connected home devices what is most stunning is the predicted contribution that the industry of iot will have on our economy as the upcoming generation becomes more technology savvy so is their hunger for devices that intermingle with their everyday lifestyles simply stated in an article titled projecting the growth and economic impact of the internet of things it covers insights of several economic impacts of the growing connected world this ranges from growing efficiencies of a business to decreasing the cost of healthcare there is a device available for tracking just about anything these days including your health productivity lifestyle and daily habits to name a few the enormous amount of money that consumers and businesses are willing to spend on connected devices creates new jobs and allows those individuals running a business to become more connected to their consumers their productivity and improve internal operational efficiencies consumer products consist of staying in touch with others or staying connected with their personal belongings for example i m currently able to remotely check my thermostat locks lights and garage door all from my smart phone this gives me peace of mind when i m away and in return i spend my hard earned money to purchase products that give me that connectivity in the rush to be the first technology firm to market with a new connected device there is a risk of being the first mover in the technology industry the research and development alone is very expensive to produce a connected device not to mention the marketing it takes to get the word out promoting the newly invented technology so if you come out with a device that becomes a hit you can almost immediately expect copycats to enter the market and bench off the success of the first to market the only way to combat this is to create a barrier of entry by applying for a patent that protects the exclusive right to sell a unique product for a given period of time so next time you are ready to go to bed and you turn on that new app on your smart phone that tracks your sleep know that you are contributing to the emerging market predicted to reach 40 billion by 2019 not to mention the predicted overall economic value of 14 4 trillion by 2025 now those are some numbers you can t ignore projecting the growth and economic impact of the internet of things posted by chris at 4 24 2016 09 06 00 pm 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 4 23 2016 the organic panic a growing demand in today s market is the desire for organic produce the trend of the green initiative has slowly grown over the past decades but is starting to gain serious momentum where there is a demand there will be businesses trying to capitalize on this demand a recent article in the huffington post states that costco has now overtaken whole foods in the market of organic produce now the only problem that costco faces is a shortage in supply costco has established a large membership base through the use of its two part pricing and block pricing strategies costco s focus is to bring in high quality product at a low cost and sell in high volume to make up for the smaller margins with costco s benefits it offers its member cash back no questions asked returns and low costs a high percentage of their members renew their subscription year after year as costco has stepped into the organic market the millions of customers have shown their preferences and are purchasing even more organic food than can be supplied what is costco s response to this demand to help supply organic produce costco has made exclusive deals with certain farmers to sponsor them and help subsidize their costs organic farming can be a long and expensive process to produce certified organic food farmers live on such razor thin margins that this process plus the lower yield can cripple most farming operations before they even harvest a single crop most farmers cannot even take the risk to become certified costco is attempting to shoulder some of this risk to help solidify its future supply of organic goods this only makes me wonder if in the future costco will expand its vertical integration to roll out its own kirkland brand of organic grown produce as the demand for organic food increases supply will only become more scarce many businesses will have to take high risks to win in this organic panic posted by kc hulse at 4 23 2016 09 26 00 pm 5 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest volkswagen s clean diesels volkswagen has advertised its tdi clean diesel engines for years as having fewer emissions and better fuel economy compared to gas engines many people purchased volkswagens with the tdi clean diesel engine because of the company s advertisements recently the truth about these clean diesels was revealed and some tdi owners and the united states government are not happy in september of 2015 volkswagen s clean diesel scandal was exposed when the united states environmental protection agency epa issued the automaker a notice of violation of the clean air act the epa found that newer models of the tdi engines were equipped with software to cheat emission testing this software made it so the emission controlling equipment in the tdi clean diesel engines only worked when it sensed the car was being tested for emissions this equipment was deactivated during normal driving conditions the software resulted in clean diesels emitting almost 40 times the amount of nitrogen oxide nox allowed by the clean air act these clean diesels have heavily polluted the air with harmful nox emissions which can cause respiratory diseases such as emphysema bronchitis and asthma the clean diesel scandal is a prime example of negative externalities negative externalities are costs suffered by a third party who is not involved in the production or consumption of a good in this case the tdi clean diesel engines are the good that is being produced by volkswagen and consumed by those individuals driving vehicles with those engines the third party is those individuals who inhale the air polluted with nox emissions the costs suffered by the third party include but are not limited to respiratory illnesses hospitalizations and premature deaths associated with the inhalation of nox emissions http www nytimes com interactive 2015 business international vw diesel emissions scandal explained html _r 0 posted by unknown at 4 23 2016 05 53 00 pm 3 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest aaa rating for subprime mortgage bonds are you serious i have great news for pension funds investment banks and municipalities around the world another pool of subprime mortgage backed securities have earned a aaa rating from moody s investors service the new residential mortgage loan trust 2016 1 mortgage bond is a securitization of over 261 million of first lien prime subprime and alt a mortgages that were originated from 2001 2005 over 75 of the 1 789 loans within the portfolio consists of subprime and alt a originated mortgages these are same type of mortgage backed securities from the same timeline originated from the same pool of lenders and rated by the same rating services that helped cause the american subprime mortgage crisis of 2007 2008 leading into the great recession of 2008 2009 the only difference is that now these mortgages are 11 15 years seasoned moody s investor service gives several reasons why they have rated the bond aaa they claim that based upon the age of the loans in the pool the originators of the loans are less relevant i highly doubt that some municipalities whom lost millions of dollars within norway and ireland would agree with this analogy as a mortgage professional of 25 years and having been responsible of helping over 10 000 clients i believe when names such as countrywide home loans gmac mortgage and american home mortgage all defunct show up on a bond investors should show a certain level of concern moody s also compares the 12 month default rates of prime 1 6 subprime 3 7 and alt a 3 1 mortgages they then discuss the expected default rate of this portfolio at 5 4 however if you where to look at the research done by both corelogic and the u s federal reserve it appears that the rate of default rate continue to increase as time progresses for the years referenced in the portfolio especially for loans originated during years 2004 2006 thus for loans originated during this time that are within the said portfolio the default rate continues to climb moody s also mentions that the weighted average updated loan to value ltv ratio was 60 7 and fico score was 697 what was not mentioned was the average combined loan to value cltv in the portfolio during the 2001 2006 period a very popular mortgage product was the 80 20 meaning one would acquire an 80 first lien position mortgage and simultan...
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