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hat began in 1990 an estimated 5 6 million unauthorized immigrants were from mexico in 2015 and 2016 down from 6 4 million in 2009 this trend continues to decrease the number of unauthorized immigrants from mexico dropped to 4 million in 2022 while it continues to drop mexico is still the most common country of origin for immigrants in the u s non mexicans numbered 5 7 million indicating mexicans are no longer the clear majority of unauthorized immigrants the unauthorized immigrant population from other countries grew the u s civilian workforce includes 8 million unauthorized immigrants accounting for 5 of those working or looking for work in 2014 this number has been relatively stable since 2007 ranging between 8 0 and 8 3 million unauthorized immigrants make up about 4 8 of the u s workforce in 2022 they are primarily concentrated in seven states california new mexico texas florida new york new jersey and illinois about two thirds have been in the u s for more than a decade since then between the years of 2019 to 2022 the illegal immigration population grew in six states florida massachusetts new jersey new york and texas the only state that saw a decrease in the population was california the reduction has been driven mainly by a decrease in the number of new immigrants from mexico the single largest source net immigration from mexico to the u s has stopped and possibly reversed since 2010 at its peak in 2000 about 770 000 immigrants arrived annually from mexico the majority arrived illegally by 2010 the inflow had dropped to about 140 000 a majority of whom arrived as legal immigrants at its peak in august 2007 the number of illegal immigrants in the u s was 12 5 million this decreased by 1 3 million to 11 2 million by july 2008 11 due to either increased law enforcement or fewer job opportunities based on the department of homeland security estimates in 2009 unauthorized immigrant population living in the united states decreased to 10 8 million in january 2009 on the whole between 2000 and 2009 the unauthorized immigrant population grew by 27 percent the size of illegal immigrants that have entered the u s declined by almost 300 thousand in 2018 to 2020 but then grew by 630 thousand from 2020 to 2022 immigrants to the u s are concentrated at both the high and low income ends of the u s labor market determined largely by their educational attainment in 2004 at the low end half of workers aged 25 and older who lacked a diploma were from mexico and central america these workers were employed in jobs that required little formal education such as construction labor and dishwashing and on average they earned much less than did the average native worker economic impact of illegal immigrants edit consumer demand edit an employer can gain economic advantages when hiring workers without legal authorization because these employees may accept lower wages and minimal benefits out of necessity this can reduce labor costs relative to paying documented workers with taxpayer identification numbers and full legal protections while unauthorized immigrants are legally barred from work in the united states they nonetheless constitute a significant part of the labor force in 2023 an estimated 9 7 million unauthorized immigrants 4 ai retrieved source were part of the u s workforce accounting for about 5 6 of all workers one of the highest shares on record according to an article by council on foreign relations 5 ai retrieved source undocumented households collectively held about 299 billion in spending power and nearly 389 billion in combined income in 2023 indicating that most earnings were quickly circulated back into the economy through consumption and taxes this highlights that most immigrant workers with low qualifications spend most of what they earn on consumption needs by comparison average wages for u s workers generally exceed the federal minimum and have continued to rise in recent years with private sector average hourly earnings around 36 37 per hour in late 2025 6 ai retrieved source because unauthorized workers are present in construction agriculture hospitality and other labor intensive sectors their participation helps support overall economic activity and employment estimates from 2023 suggest that undocumented immigrants filled around 8 5 million jobs and are embedded across many industries despite their status 7 ai retrieved source budgetary impacts edit in recent years the number of people arriving in the united states has risen sharply most of this increase is due to a growth in the group the congressional budget office cbo classifies as other foreign nationals some individuals in this category have been authorized to enter or stay in the country while others have not additional details about this group s makeup are discussed later based on trends observed before 2020 cbo would have expected net immigration in this category to average about 200 000 people annually instead under cbo s projections net immigration exceeds that expected level by a cumulative 8 7 million people between 2021 and 2026 a 2024 report 8 examines how that surge in immigration from 2021 to 2026 affects cbo s baseline economic and budget projections for the 2024 2034 period specifically it focuses only on the incremental effects of the surge rather than the overall impact of all immigrants who arrived during those years or earlier and were already living in the united states the analysis centers on federal revenues mandatory spending and interest on the debt while the report offers a general discussion of possible implications for discretionary spending it does not quantify effects on state and local government budgets 9 to estimate the impact of the immigration increase cbo developed a counterfactual scenario in which the surge does not occur in that scenario net immigration of people in the other foreign national category remains at 200 000 per year from 2021 through 2034 matching baseline assumptions from 2027 onward cbo then produced economic and budget projections under that scenario and compared them with its baseline projections the differences between the two sets of outcomes represent cbo s estimates of the effects of the immigration surge cbo emphasizes that these estimates are highly uncertain and will be updated as additional data and information become available impacts on the budget according to cbo s baseline projections the immigration surge increases federal revenues mandatory spending and interest costs but overall it reduces cumulative federal deficits by 0 9 trillion over the 2024 2034 period some of these budgetary effects result directly from having more people paying taxes and receiving federal benefits others arise indirectly from changes in the economy caused by the surge including higher interest rates and increased productivity among workers who are not part of the surge population cbo estimates that federal revenues increase by 1 2 trillion over the 2024 2034 period as a result of the surge the annual revenue effect grows over time reaching 167 billion equal to 2 2 percent of total revenues in 2034 most of this increase comes from individual income and payroll taxes paid by immigrants in the surge population additional revenue gains stem from higher overall economic activity over the same period the surge raises spending on federal mandatory programs and net interest by a total of 0 3 trillion spending on certain mandatory programs rises over time as more immigrants in the surge population along with their u s born children become eligible for benefits by 2034 those benefits increase mandatory spending by 23 billion or 0 4 percent of the total economywide effects of the surge also raise annual spending reaching 27 billion in 2034 higher interest rates driven by the surge lead to increased interest costs on federal debt altogether total federal outlays in 2034 are 50 billion higher because of the surge these estimates exclude discretionary spending which depends on future congressional appropriations nevertheless cbo expects the surge to place additional demands on discretionary funded programs particularly those administered by the department of homeland security and the office of refugee resettlement within the department of health and human services in 2024 funding for discretionary activities directly related to immigration totaled 37 billion which is 1 billion more than in 2019 after adjusting for inflation and the administration has requested further increases for 2024 the surge is also expected to affect other discretionary programs tied to population size such as funding for k 12 education income support and infrastructure if funding for these broad categories rose proportionally with the population increase from the surge cbo estimates those increases would amount to 24 billion in 2034 and 0 2 trillion over the 2024 2034 period cbo does not include discretionary spending effects in its budget totals because such spending will depend on future legislative decisions lawmakers could address increased needs either by raising overall appropriations or reallocating funds from other areas state and local government budgets are also likely to be affected though the impact will differ across jurisdictions existing research generally finds that immigration increases costs for state and local governments more than it increases revenues and cbo expects a similar outcome for the current surge however the surge population differs in some ways from immigrant groups examined in past studies and cbo has not conducted a comprehensive analysis of its effects on state and local finances impacts on the economy many of the projected budgetary impacts of the immigration surge are driven by broader economic changes in cbo s projections the surge increases total nominal gross domestic product by 1 3 trillion or 3 2 percent in 2034 and by 8 9 trillion cumulatively over the 2024 2034 period total wages paid annually also rise with the increase reaching about 3 percent in 2034 these higher wages significantly contribute to increased federal revenues because they are subject to income and payroll taxes additionally two main consequences of the surge faster labor force growth and stronger demand for housing investment raise the return on capital and place upward pressure on interest rates those higher interest rates are a key factor behind the increase in federal spending within the labor market workers in the surge population initially earn lower wages than other u s residents with similar educational attainment on average but their wages converge over time in cbo s estimates through 2026 wage growth for people not in the surge population is slightly lower than it would have been without the surge largely because wages for workers with 12 or fewer years of education grow more slowly in later years this effect reverses wage growth for non surge workers increases slightly due to higher productivity associated with innovation and because the larger number of less educated workers raises demand for more educated workers to complement them price levels edit npr reported in march 2006 that when the wages of lower skilled workers go down the rest of america benefits by paying lower prices for things like restaurant meals agricultural produce and construction the economic impact of unauthorized immigration is far smaller than other trends in the economy such as the increasing use of automation in manufacturing or the growth in global trade but economists generally believe that when averaged over the whole economy the effect is a small net positive harvard s george borjas says the average american s wealth is increased by less than 1 percent because of unauthorized immigration according to the report presented by eleanor chelimsky and the team hiring an illegal immigrant can have both negative as well as positive effects for instance if a restaurant hires a cheap labor of unauthorized workers it will reduce the employer s cost eventually leading them to reduce the price for the foods served in the restaurant the illegal workers are hired by the employers in the companies competing in the same market with similar businesses that are hiring the legal workers due to the competition on the products sold in that free market increase in illegal immigration may decrease the wage rate of the legal workers in case of the inflow of unauthorized workers reducing the costs of operation leading to the reduction of prices on a product service provided the demand for the services of legal workers with low skill jobs such as fast food restaurants agricultural sectors and construction will decrease however on a positive note the reduced price on the menu will attract more customers increasing their volume of sales as a result this will increase the demand for the noncompeting category of workers such as chefs or waiters while this may seem beneficial for employers unauthorized immigrants are being paid less than their peers while the pay difference could be explained by level of education it could also be because they have no leverage in asking for more pay while there is no concrete date on the pay of illegal workers based on demographic and socioeconomic data we can inference that as of july 2019 undocumented workers are paid 42 less than the wages of u s born citizens impact on wages edit protesters of proposition 187 in fresno california in 1994 economists have different conclusions regarding the impact on wages from immigration both legal and illegal it is challenging to separate the impact of illegal immigration generally workers with lower educational attainment from immigration overall studies generally conclude there is a small adverse impact on the wages of lower skilled workers from immigration and some benefit for higher skilled workers research by economist david card university of california berkeley indicated the effect of immigration on native born workers without high school degrees is limited perhaps reducing the wages of high school dropouts by 5 1 over 20 years 10 in 2007 harvard university economist george borjas wrote that economic theory implies that immigration should lower the wage of competing workers and increase the wage of complementary workers for example an influx of foreign born laborers reduces the economic opportunities for laborers all laborers now face stiffer competition in the labor market at the same time high skill natives may gain substantially they pay less for the services that laborers provide such as painting the house and mowing the lawn and natives who hire these laborers can now specialize in producing the goods and services that better suit their skills borjas other research also indicated that high school dropouts experience a substantial wage loss from immigration of 6 3 in the short run and 3 1 over the long haul as labor markets adjust to the increased number of workers 11 a 2015 national academy of scie...