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incumbent wikipedia jump to content main menu main menu move to sidebar hide navigation main page contents current events random article about wikipedia contact us contribute help learn to edit community portal recent changes upload file special pages search search appearance donate create account log in personal tools donate create account log in contents move to sidebar hide top 1 etymology 2 incumbency advantage toggle incumbency advantage subsection 2 1 business usage 2 2 sophomore surge 3 anti incumbency 4 see also 5 references 6 further reading toggle the table of contents incumbent 44 languages العربية مصرى azərbaycanca भोजपुरी বাংলা کوردی čeština cymraeg dansk deutsch ދިވެހިބަސް español فارسی bahasa hulontalo עברית हिन्दी fiji hindi hrvatski հայերեն bahasa indonesia igbo jawa 한국어 kurdî मैथिली मराठी bahasa melayu नेपाली norsk bokmål ਪੰਜਾਬੀ português русский scots سنڌي srpskohrvatski српскохрватски simple english తెలుగు ไทย türkçe chitumbuka українська اردو tiếng việt 中文 edit links article talk english read view source view history tools tools move to sidebar hide actions read view source view history general what links here related changes upload file permanent link page information cite this page get shortened url switch to legacy parser print export download as pdf printable version in other projects wikidata item appearance move to sidebar hide from wikipedia the free encyclopedia current holder of a political office for the ecclesiastical office see incumbent ecclesiastical re election redirects here for the system used in the english football league see re election football league for the 2025 comedy film see re election film the incumbent is the current holder of an office or position in an election the incumbent is the person holding or acting in the position that is up for election regardless of whether they are seeking re election there may or may not be an incumbent on the ballot the previous holder may have died retired or resigned they may not seek re election be barred from re election due to term limits or a new electoral division or position may have been created at which point the office or position is regarded as vacant or open in the united states an election without an incumbent on the ballot is an open seat or open contest etymology the term incumbent is loaned from medieval latin incumbens tis holder of an ecclesiastical office which is the substantivised present participle of the verb incumbo ĕre originally meaning lay upon lean or recline upon and subsequently by extension press upon burden be incumbent upon one as a duty 1 2 3 4 incumbency advantage in general an incumbent has a political advantage over challengers at elections except when the timing of elections is determined by a constitution or by legislation the incumbent in some countries may have the right to determine the date of an election for most political offices the incumbent often has more name recognition due to their previous work in the office incumbents also have easier access to campaign finance as well as government resources such as the franking privilege that can be indirectly used to boost the incumbent s re election campaign in the united states an election especially for a single member constituency in a legislature in which an incumbent is not seeking re election is often called an open seat because of the lack of incumbency advantage these are often amongst the most hotly contested races in any election 5 also an open contest is created when the term of office is limited as in the case of terms of the u s president being restricted to two four year terms and the incumbent is prohibited from recontesting although the expected advantage of incumbency has gone from about two percentage points in the 1950s to ten percentage points in the 1980s and 1990s and then back to about two percentage points in the 2010s and 2020s the probability that an incumbent will lose their seat has remained approximately the same over the entire period 6 when newcomers look to fill an open office voters tend to compare and contrast the candidates qualifications positions on political issues and personal characteristics in a relatively straightforward way elections featuring an incumbent on the other hand are as guy molyneux puts it fundamentally a referendum on the incumbent 7 voters will first grapple with the record of the incumbent only if they decide to fire the incumbent do they begin to evaluate whether each of the challengers is an acceptable alternative a 2017 study in the british journal of political science argues that the incumbency advantage stems from the fact that voters evaluate the incumbent s ideology individually whereas they assume that any challenger shares his party s ideology 8 this means that the incumbency advantage gets more significant as political polarization increases 8 a 2017 study in the journal of politics found that incumbents have a far larger advantage in on cycle elections than in off cycle elections 9 business usage in relation to business operations and competition an incumbent supplier is usually the supplier who currently supplies the needs of a customer and therefore has an advantageous position in relation to maintaining this role or agreeing a new contract in comparison with competing businesses 10 sophomore surge main article sophomore surge political analysts in the united states and united kingdom have noted the existence of a sophomore surge not known as such in the united kingdom in which first term representatives see an increase in votes after their first election this phenomenon is said to bring an advantage of up to 10 for first term representatives which increases the incumbency advantage however the extent of the surge is a biased estimate of the electoral advantage of incumbency 5 anti incumbency main article anti incumbency there exist scenarios in which the incumbency factor itself leads to the downfall of the incumbent popularly known as the anti incumbency factor situations of this kind occur when the incumbent has proven themself not worthy of office during their tenure and the challengers demonstrate this to the voters an anti incumbency factor can also be responsible for bringing down incumbents who have been in office for many successive terms despite performance indicators simply because the voters are convinced by the challengers of a need for change it is also argued that the holders of extensively powerful offices are subject to immense pressure which leaves them politically impotent and unable to command enough public confidence for re election such is the case for example with the presidency of france 11 voters who experience the negative economic shock of a loss of income are less likely to vote for an incumbent candidate than those who have not experienced such a shock 12 nick panagakis a pollster coined what he dubbed the incumbent rule in 1989 that any voter who claims to be undecided towards the end of the election will probably end up voting for a challenger 13 in france the phenomenon is known by the catchphrase sortez les sortants get out the outgoing representatives which was the slogan of the poujadist movement in the 1956 french legislative election see also politics portal list of current heads of state and government lists of office holders outgoing politician list of presidents who did not win reelection rally round the flag effect sophomore surge virtual incumbent juncker curse references onions c t ed 1966 incumbent the oxford dictionary of english etymology oxford clarendon press p 469 lewis charlton d short charles 1879 incumbo a latin dictionary oxford clarendon press p 930 incumbere λογειον dictionary of medieval latin from british sources retrieved 2026 05 06 du cange incumbens du cange et al glossarium mediæ et infimæ latinitatis retrieved 2026 05 06 1 2 gelman andrew king gary 1990 estimating incumbency advantage without bias pdf american journal of political science 34 4 1142 1164 doi 10 2307 2111475 issn 0092 5853 jstor 2111475 s2cid 3752645 archived pdf from the original on jan 21 2024 ebanks danny katz jonathan n king gary 2023 if a statistical model predicts that common events should occur only once in 10 000 elections maybe it s the wrong model gary king harvard university retrieved 2023 02 14 guy molyneux the big five oh the american prospect 1 october 2004 1 2 peskowitz zachary 2017 05 01 ideological signaling and incumbency advantage pdf british journal of political science 49 2 467 490 doi 10 1017 s0007123416000557 issn 0007 1234 s2cid 157292602 archived from the original pdf on may 3 2019 de benedictis kessner justin 2017 12 07 off cycle and out of office election timing and the incumbency advantage the journal of politics 80 119 132 doi 10 1086 694396 issn 0022 3816 s2cid 222440248 chen j incumbent investopedia updated 27 january 2021 retrieved 20 march 2021 robert tombs may 2 2017 france s presidency is too powerful to work polling report retrieved december 3 2017 margalit yotam 2019 05 11 political responses to economic shocks annual review of political science 22 1 277 295 doi 10 1146 annurev polisci 050517 110713 issn 1094 2939 nick panagakis february 27 1989 incumbent rule polling report retrieved february 5 2016 further reading look up incumbent in wiktionary the free dictionary de magalhaes l 2015 incumbency effects in a comparative perspective evidence from brazilian mayoral elections political analysis 23 1 113 126 schiumerini luis 2025 incumbency bias why political office is a blessing and a curse in latin america cambridge university press retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title incumbent oldid 1360669144 category political terminology hidden categories articles with short description short description matches wikidata wikipedia indefinitely semi protected pages this page was last edited on 22 june 2026 at 22 03 utc page was rendered with parsoid text is available under the creative commons 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