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s curve it quickly became central to macroeconomic thinking apparently offering a stable trade off between price stability and employment the curve was interpreted to imply that a country could achieve low unemployment if it were willing to tolerate a higher inflation rate or vice versa 12 173 the phillips curve model described the u s experience well in the 1960s but failed to describe the stagflation experienced in the 1970s monetarism edit inflation deflation m2 money supply increases year year inflation and the growth of money supply m2 further information monetarism during the 1960s the keynesian view of inflation and macroeconomic policy altogether were challenged by monetarist theories led by milton friedman 12 528 529 friedman famously stated that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon 76 he revived the quantity theory of money by irving fisher and others making it into a central tenet of monetarist thinking arguing that the most significant factor influencing inflation or deflation is how fast the money supply grows or shrinks 77 the quantity theory of money simply stated says that any change in the amount of money in a system will change the price level this theory begins with the equation of exchange m v p q displaystyle mv pq where m displaystyle m is the nominal quantity of money v displaystyle v is the velocity of money in final expenditures p displaystyle p is the general price level q displaystyle q is an index of the real value of final expenditures in this formula the general price level is related to the level of real economic activity q the quantity of money m and the velocity of money v the formula itself is simply an uncontroversial accounting identity because the velocity of money v is defined residually from the equation to be the ratio of final nominal expenditure p q displaystyle pq to the quantity of money m 11 81 107 monetarists assumed additionally that the velocity of money is unaffected by monetary policy at least in the long run that the real value of output is also exogenous in the long run its long run value being determined independently by the productive capacity of the economy and that money supply is exogenous and can be controlled by the monetary authorities under these assumptions the primary driver of the change in the general price level is changes in the quantity of money 11 81 107 consequently monetarists contended that monetary policy not fiscal policy was the most potent instrument to influence aggregate demand real output and eventually inflation this was contrary to keynesian thinking which in principle recognized a role for monetary policy but in practice believed that the effect from interest rate changes to the real economy was slight making monetary policy an ineffective instrument preferring fiscal policy 12 528 conversely monetarists considered fiscal policy or government spending and taxation as ineffective in controlling inflation 77 friedman also took issue with the traditional keynesian view concerning the phillips curve he together with edmund phelps contended that the trade off between inflation and unemployment implied by the phillips curve was only temporary but not permanent if politicians tried to exploit it it would eventually disappear because higher inflation would over time be built into the economic expectations of households and firms 12 528 529 this line of thinking led to the concept of potential output sometimes called the natural gross domestic product a level of gdp where the economy is stable in the sense that inflation will neither decrease nor increase this level may itself change over time when institutional or natural constraints change it corresponds to the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu or the natural rate of unemployment sometimes called the structural level of unemployment 12 if gdp exceeds its potential and unemployment consequently is below the nairu the theory says that inflation will accelerate as suppliers increase their prices if gdp falls below its potential level and unemployment is above the nairu inflation will decelerate as suppliers attempt to fill excess capacity cutting prices and undermining inflation 78 rational expectations theory edit further information rational expectations in the early 1970s rational expectations theory led by economists like robert lucas thomas sargent and robert barro transformed macroeconomic thinking radically they held that economic actors look rationally into the future when trying to maximize their well being and do not respond solely to immediate opportunity costs and pressures 12 529 530 in this view future expectations and strategies are important for inflation as well one implication was that agents would anticipate the likely behaviour of central banks and base their own actions on these expectations a central bank having a reputation of being soft on inflation will generate high inflation expectations which again will be self fulfilling when all agents build expectations of future high inflation into their nominal contracts like wage agreements on the other hand if the central bank has a reputation of being tough on inflation then such a policy announcement will be believed and inflationary expectations will come down rapidly thus allowing inflation itself to come down rapidly with minimal economic disruption the implication is that credibility becomes very important for central banks in fighting inflation 12 467 469 new keynesians edit events during the 1970s proved milton friedman and other critics of the traditional phillips curve right the relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate broke down eventually a consensus was established that the break down was due to agents changing their inflation expectations confirming friedman s theory as a consequence the notion of a natural rate of unemployment alternatively called the structural rate of unemployment was accepted by most economists meaning that there is a specific level of unemployment that is compatible with stable inflation stabilization policy must therefore try to steer economic activity so that the actual unemployment rate converges towards that level 12 176 189 the trade off between the unemployment rate and inflation implied by phillips thus holds in the short term but not in the long term 79 also the oil crises of the 1970s causing at the same time rising unemployment and rising inflation i e stagflation led to a broad recognition by economists that supply shocks could independently affect inflation 26 12 529 during the 1980s a group of researchers named new keynesians emerged who accepted many originally non keynesian concepts like the importance of monetary policy the existence of a natural level of unemployment and the incorporation of rational expectations formation as a reasonable benchmark at the same time they believed like keynes did that various market imperfections in different markets like labour markets and financial markets were also important to study to understand both inflation generation and business cycles 12 533 534 during the 1980s and 1990s there were often heated intellectual debates between new keynesians and new classicals but by the 2000s a synthesis gradually emerged the result has been called the new keynesian model 12 535 the new neoclassical synthesis 80 81 or simply the new consensus model 80 view post 2000 to present edit a common view beginning around the year 2000 and holding through to the present time on inflation and its causes can be illustrated by a modern phillips curve including a role for supply shocks and inflation expectations beside the original role of aggregate demand determining employment and unemployment fluctuations in influencing the inflation rate 12 consequently demand shocks supply shocks and inflation expectations are all potentially important determinants of inflation 82 confirming the basis of the older triangle model by robert j gordon 83 demand shocks may both decrease and increase inflation so called demand pull inflation may be caused by increases in aggregate demand due to increased private and government spending 84 85 etc conversely negative demand shocks may be caused by contractionary economic policy supply shocks may also lead to both higher or lower inflation depending on the character of the shock cost push inflation is caused by a drop in aggregate supply potential output this may be due to natural disasters war or increased prices of inputs for example a sudden decrease in the supply of oil leading to increased oil prices can cause cost push inflation producers for whom oil is a part of their costs could then pass this on to consumers in the form of increased prices 86 inflation expectations play a major role in forming actual inflation high inflation can prompt employees to demand rapid wage increases to keep up with consumer prices in this way rising wages in turn can help fuel inflation as firms pass these higher labor costs on to their customers as higher prices leading to a feedback loop in the case of collective bargaining wage growth may be set as a function of inflationary expectations which will be higher when inflation is high this can cause a wage price spiral in a sense inflation begets further inflationary expectations which beget further built in inflation 86 the important role of rational expectations is recognized by the emphasis on credibility on the part of central banks and other policy makers 80 the monetarist assertion that monetary policy alone could successfully control inflation formed part of the new consensus which recognized that both monetary and fiscal policy are important tools for influencing aggregate demand 80 12 528 indeed monetary policy is under normal circumstances considered to be the preferable instrument to contain inflation 82 12 at the same time most central banks have abandoned trying to target money growth as originally advocated by the monetarists instead most central banks in developed countries focus on adjusting interest rates to achieve an explicit inflation target 4 12 505 509 the reason for central bank reluctance in following money growth targets is that the money stock measures that central banks can control tightly e g the monetary base are not very closely linked to aggregate demand whereas conversely money supply measures like m2 which are in some cases more closely correlated with aggregate demand are difficult to control for the central bank also in many countries the relationship between aggregate demand and all money stock measures have broken down in recent decades weakening further the case for monetary policy rules focusing on the money supply 4 608 however while more disputed in the 1970s surveys of members of the american economic association aea since the 1990s have shown that most professional american economists generally agree with the statement inflation is caused primarily by too much growth in the money supply while the same surveys have shown a lack of consensus by aea members since the 1990s that in the short run a reduction in unemployment causes the rate of inflation to increase has developed despite more agreement with the statement in the 1970s 92 housing shortages 93 94 95 96 immigration 97 and climate change 98 99 100 101 have been cited as significant drivers of inflation in the 21st century climate change edit through its influence on food production and supply chains climate change has been found to contribute to inflation 102 a phenomenon that is increasingly being referred to as climateflation the phrase which was first used by isabel schnabel of the european central bank refers to price rises that are directly caused by climate related disruptions such intense heat droughts and floods that have an impact on agricultural productivity 103 one noteworthy instance happened in 2022 2023 researchers calculated that climate driven heat increases in europe averaging 1 25 c above baseline with peaks of up to 5 7 c in some regions contributed to an increase in european food prices of about 0 7 which in turn added about 0 3 to overall inflation this impact exacerbated inflationary pressures already present as a result of the covid 19 rebound and the shock to oil prices that followed russia s invasion of ukraine according to the same study warming predicted by 2035 could increase these effects by 30 50 104 energy prices edit this section is an excerpt from fossil fuel inflation effects edit fossilflation is a term that describes the impact of fossil fuels on inflation 105 106 according to vox in august 2022 economists have pointed to energy prices as the main reason for high inflation noting that energy prices indirectly affect virtually every part of the economy 105 sectors that raise prices significantly as a result of higher fossil fuel prices include transportation food and shipping 105 2021 2023 inflation surge edit main article 2021 2023 inflation surge most countries experienced the 2021 2023 inflation surge peaking in 2022 and declining in 2023 the causes are believed to be a mixture of demand and supply shocks whereas inflation expectations generally remained anchored 107 possible causes on the demand side include expansionary fiscal and monetary policy after the covid 19 pandemic whereas supply shocks include the 2021 2023 global supply chain crisis caused by the covid 19 lockdowns 107 and the global energy crisis that was exacerbated by the 2022 russian invasion of ukraine the term sellers inflation was coined during this period to describe the effect of corporate profits as a possible cause of inflation price inelasticity can contribute to inflation when firms consolidate tending to support monopoly or monopsony conditions anywhere along the supply chain for goods or services when this occurs firms can provide greater shareholder value by taking a larger proportion of profits than by investing in providing greater volumes of their outputs 108 109 shortly after initial energy price shocks caused by the russian invasion of ukraine had subsided oil companies found that supply chain constrictions already exacerbated by the ongoing global pandemic supported price inelasticity i e they began lowering prices to match the price of oil when it fell much more slowly than they had increased their prices when costs rose 110 the quantity theory of money has long been popular with libertarian conservative critics of the federal reserve during the covid pandemic and its immediate aftermath the m2 money supply increased at the fastest rate in decades leading some to link the growth to the 2021 2023 inflation surge fed chairman jerome powell said in december 2021 that the once strong link between the money supply and inflation ended about 40 years ago due to financial innovations and deregulation previous fed chairs ben bernanke and alan greenspan had previously concurred with this position the broadest measure of money ...