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ck market bubble is a type of economic bubble taking place in stock markets when market participants drive stock prices above their value in relation to some system of stock valuation behavioral finance theory attributes stock market bubbles to cognitive biases that lead to groupthink and herd behavior bubbles occur not only in real world markets with their inherent uncertainty and noise but also in highly predictable experimental markets 1 other theoretical explanations of stock market bubbles have suggested that they are rational 2 intrinsic 3 and contagious 4 history edit courtyard of the amsterdam stock exchange beurs van hendrick de keyser by emanuel de witte 1653 historically early stock market bubbles and crashes have their roots in financial activities of the 17th century dutch republic the birthplace of the first formal official stock exchange and market in history 5 6 7 8 9 the dutch tulip mania of the 1630s is generally considered the world s first recorded speculative bubble or economic bubble 10 examples edit two famous early stock market bubbles were the mississippi scheme in france and the south sea bubble in england both bubbles came to an abrupt end in 1720 bankrupting thousands of unfortunate investors those stories and many others are recounted in charles mackay s 1841 popular account extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds the nikkei 225 relevant the two most famous bubbles of the twentieth century the bubble in american stocks in the 1920s just before the wall street crash of 1929 and the following great depression and the dot com bubble of the late 1990s were based on speculative activity surrounding the development of new technologies the 1920s saw the widespread introduction of a range of technological innovations including radio automobiles aviation and the deployment of electrical power grids the 1990s was the decade when internet and e commerce technologies emerged many of which had minimal sales and earnings profiles other stock market bubbles of note include the encilhamento occurred in brazil during the late 1880s early 1890s the go go era of the late 1960s 11 12 13 the nifty fifty stocks in the early 1970s taiwanese stocks in 1987 1989 and japanese stocks in the late 1980s stock market bubbles frequently produce hot markets in initial public offerings since investment bankers and their clients see opportunities to float new stock issues at inflated prices these hot ipo markets misallocate investment funds to areas dictated by speculative trends rather than to enterprises generating long standing economic value typically when there is an overabundance of ipos in a bubble market a large portion of the ipo companies fail to achieve what is promised to the investors or can even be vehicles for fraud whether rational or irrational edit emotional and cognitive biases see behavioral finance seem to be the causes of bubbles but often when the phenomenon appears pundits try to find a rationale so as to not go against the crowd thus sometimes people will dismiss concerns about overpriced markets by citing a new economy where the old stock valuation rules may no longer apply this type of thinking helps to further propagate the bubble whereby everyone is investing with the intent of finding a greater fool however some analysts cite the wisdom of crowds and say that price movements really do reflect rational expectations of fundamental returns large traders become powerful enough to rock the boat generating stock market bubbles 14 to sort out the competing claims between behavioral finance and efficient markets theorists observers need to find bubbles that occur when a readily available measure of fundamental value is also observable the bubble in closed end country funds in the late 1980s is instructive here as are bubbles that occur in experimental asset markets according to the efficient market hypothesis this doesn t happen and so any data is wrong 15 for closed end country funds observers can compare the stock prices to the net asset value per share the net value of the fund s total holdings divided by the number of shares outstanding for experimental asset markets observers can compare the stock prices to the expected returns from holding the stock which the experimenter determines and communicates to the traders in both instances closed end country funds and experimental markets stock prices clearly diverge from fundamental values nobel laureate dr vernon smith has illustrated the closed end country fund phenomenon with a chart showing prices and net asset values of the spain fund in 1989 and 1990 in his work on price bubbles 16 at its peak the spain fund traded near 35 nearly triple its net asset value of about 12 per share at the same time the spain fund and other closed end country funds were trading at very substantial premiums the number of closed end country funds available exploded thanks to many issuers creating new country funds and selling the ipos at high premiums it only took a few months for the premiums in closed end country funds to fade back to the more typical discounts at which closed end funds trade those who had bought them at premiums had run out of greater fools for a while though the supply of greater fools had been outstanding positive feedback edit a rising price on any share will attract the attention of investors not all of those investors are willing or interested in studying the intrinsic value of the share and for such people the rising price itself is reason enough to invest in turn the additional investment will provide buoyancy to the price thus completing a positive feedback loop like all dynamic systems financial markets operate in an ever changing equilibrium which translates into price volatility however a self adjustment negative feedback normally takes place when prices rise more people are encouraged to sell while fewer are encouraged to buy this puts a limit on volatility however once positive feedback takes over the market like all systems with positive feedback enters a state of increasing disequilibrium this can be seen in financial bubbles where asset prices rapidly spike upwards far beyond what could be considered the rational economic value only to fall rapidly afterwards effect of incentives edit investment managers such as stock mutual fund managers are compensated and retained in part due to their performance relative to peers taking a conservative or contrarian position as a bubble builds results in performance unfavorable to peers this may cause customers to go elsewhere and can affect the investment manager s own employment or compensation the typical short term focus of u s equity markets exacerbates the risk for investment managers that do not participate during the building phase of a bubble particularly one that builds over a longer period of time in attempting to maximize returns for clients and maintain their employment they may rationally participate in a bubble they believe to be forming as the benefits outweigh the risks of not doing so 17 see also edit histoire des bourses de valeurs french 2008 financial crisis ai bubble asset allocation business cycle collective behavior diversification finance dot com bubble fictitious capital financial modeling financial risk management irrational exuberance market trend risk management stock market crash references edit smith vernon l suchanek gerry l williams arlington w 1988 bubbles crashes and endogenous expectations in experimental spot asset markets econometrica 56 5 1119 1151 doi 10 2307 1911361 jstor 1911361 de long j bradford shleifer andrei summers lawrence h waldmann robert j 1990 noise trader risk in financial markets pdf journal of political economy 98 4 703 738 doi 10 1086 261703 s2cid 12112860 froot kenneth a obstfeld maurice 1991 intrinsic bubbles the case of stock prices american economic review 81 5 1189 1214 doi 10 3386 w3091 jstor 2006913 topol richard 1991 bubbles and volatility of stock prices effect of mimetic contagion the economic journal 101 407 786 800 doi 10 2307 2233855 jstor 2233855 brooks john the fluctuation the little crash in 62 in business adventures twelve classic tales from the world of wall street new york weybright talley 1968 neal larry 2005 venture shares of the dutch east india company in origins of value in the origins of value the financial innovations that created modern capital markets goetzmann rouwenhorst eds oxford university press 2005 pp 165 175 shiller robert 2011 economics 252 financial markets lecture 4 portfolio diversification and supporting financial institutions open yale courses transcript petram lodewijk the world s first stock exchange how the amsterdam market for dutch east india company shares became a modern securities market 1602 1700 translated from the dutch by lynne richards columbia university press 2014 304pp macaulay catherine r 2015 capitalism s renaissance the potential of repositioning the financial meta economy futures volume 68 april 2015 p 5 18 terrell ellen research guides business booms busts bubbles a resource guide on economic manias crashes tulip mania guides loc gov retrieved 2025 01 07 robards terry 12 february 1973 go go fund managers mostly gone the new york times retrieved 14 may 2026 barbash barry p 4 december 1997 remembering the past mutual funds and the lessons of the wonder years retrieved 14 may 2026 brooks john 20 september 1999 the go go years the drama and crashing finale of wall street s bullish 60s john wiley sons isbn 978 0 471 35754 4 sergey perminov trendocracy and stock market manipulations 2008 isbn 978 1 4357 5244 3 krugman paul 2009 09 02 how did economists get it so wrong the new york times porter david p smith vernon l 2003 stock market bubbles in the laboratory the journal of behavioral finance 4 1 7 20 doi 10 1207 s15427579jpfm0401_03 s2cid 8561988 blodget henry 2008 12 01 why wall street always blows it the atlantic issn 2151 9463 retrieved 2026 04 14 external links edit accounts of the south sea bubble john law and the mississippi company can be found in charles mackay s classic extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds 1843 available from project gutenberg warning this reference has been widely criticized by historians v t e financial bubbles market trend credit cycle irrational exuberance social contagion real estate bubble stock market bubble commercial revolution 1000 1760 tulip mania 1634 1637 mississippi bubble 1684 1720 south sea bubble 1711 1720 bengal bubble of 1769 1757 1769 1st industrial revolution 1760 1840 canal mania c 1790 c 1810 carolina gold rush 1802 1825 1810s alabama real estate bubble georgia gold rush 1828 c 1840 1830s chicago real estate bubble chilean silver rush 1832 1850 1840 1870 railway mania c 1840 c 1850 california gold rush 1848 1855 queen charlottes gold rush 1851 victorian gold rush 1851 c 1870 new south wales gold rush 1851 1880 australian gold rushes 1851 1914 fraser canyon gold rush 1858 pike s peak gold rush 1858 1861 rock creek gold rush 1859 pennsylvania oil rush 1859 1891 similkameen gold rush 1860 stikine gold rush 1861 colorado river mining boom 1861 1864 otago gold rush 1861 1864 cariboo gold rush 1861 1867 first nova scotia gold rush 1861 1874 west coast gold rush 1864 1867 big bend gold rush c 1865 vermilion lake gold rush 1865 1867 kildonan gold rush 1869 omineca gold rush 1869 2nd industrial revolution 1870 1914 1870s lapland gold rush coromandel gold rushes c 1870 c 1890 cassiar gold rush c 1870 c 1890 black hills gold rush 1874 1880 colorado silver boom 1879 1893 western australian gold rushes c 1880 c 1900 indiana gas boom c 1880 1903 ohio oil rush c 1880 c 1930 tierra del fuego gold rush 1883 1906 cayoosh gold rush 1884 witwatersrand gold rush 1886 encilhamento 1886 1890 cripple creek gold rush c 1890 c 1910 klondike gold rush 1896 1899 second nova scotia gold rush 1896 1903 kobuk river stampede 1897 1899 mount baker gold rush 1897 c 1925 nome gold rush 1899 1909 fairbanks gold rush c 1900 1918 texas oil boom 1901 1918 cobalt silver rush 1903 1918 porcupine gold rush 1909 1918 interwar period 1918 1939 1920s florida land boom c 1920 1925 fairbanks gold rush 1918 c 1930 texas oil boom 1918 1945 cobalt silver rush 1918 c 1930 porcupine gold rush 1918 1945 1930s kakamega gold rush third nova scotia gold rush 1932 1942 post wwii expansion 1945 1973 texas oil boom 1945 c 1950 porcupine gold rush 1945 c 1960 poseidon bubble 1969 1970 the great inflation 1973 1982 1970s commodities boom mexican oil boom 1977 1981 silver thursday 1980 new zealand property bubble c 1980 1982 great moderation great regression 1982 2007 1980s oil glut new zealand property bubble 1982 spanish property bubble 1985 2008 japanese asset price bubble 1986 1990 dot com bubble 1995 2000 baltic states housing bubble 2000 2006 irish property bubble c 2000 2007 2000s commodities boom 2000 2008 2000s danish property bubble 2001 2006 united states housing bubble 2002 2006 romanian property bubble 2002 2007 polish property bubble 2002 2008 canadian property bubble 2002 chinese property bubble 2005 2011 lebanese housing bubble 2005 2008 chinese stock bubble of 2007 uranium bubble of 2007 information age 2007 present 2000s commodities boom 2008 2014 lebanese housing bubble 2008 corporate debt bubble 2008 australian property bubble 2010 cryptocurrency bubble 2011 everything bubble 2020 21 ai bubble 2022 carbon bubble green bubble social media stock bubble unicorn bubble u s higher education bubble v t e economic history of the united states and commonwealth of nations countries commercial revolution 1000 1760 great bullion famine c 1400 c 1500 great slump 1430 1490 the great debasement 1544 1551 financial revolution 1690 1800 slump of 1706 great frost of 1709 south sea bubble 1713 1720 mississippi bubble 1717 1720 economic impact of the seven years war 1754 1763 1st industrial revolution market revolution 1760 1870 industrial revolution scotland united states wales bengal bubble of 1769 1769 1784 british credit crisis of 1772 1773 american revolutionary war inflation 1775 1783 panic of 1785 1785 1788 copper panic of 1789 panic of 1792 1789 1793 canal mania c 1790 c 1810 panic of 1796 1797 1796 1799 1802 1804 recession carolina gold rush 1802 1825 depression of 1807 1807 1810 1810s alabama real estate bubble alabama fever 1812 recession post napoleonic depression 1815 1821 1822 23 recession panic of 1825 panic of 1826 1828 29 recession georgia gold rush 1828 c 1840 1830s chicago real estate bubble 1833 34 recession panic of 1837 1836 1838 and 1839 1843 u s state defaults in the 1840s railway mania c 1840 c 1850 plank road boom 1844 c 1855 1845 46 recession panic of 1847 1847 1848 california gold rush 1848 1855 british columbia gold rushes queen charlottes gold rush 1851 fraser canyon gold rush 1858 rock creek gold rush 1859 similkameen gold rush 1860 stikine gold rush 1861 cariboo gold rush 1861 1867 wild horse creek gold rush 1863 1870 le...