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the future of trade 2026 rebuilding through rupture skip to content reports blog download report en english العربية download report overview future of trade chapter 1 world trade disorder chapter 2 new trade map chapter 3 the tech divide chapter 4 clean energy race indexes indexes 1 and 2 indexes indexes 2 the future of trade rebuilding through rupture download report global trade tariffs 19 7 almost 20 of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar measures accelerating ai 43 ai related goods are just 15 of global trade volume but drove 43 of merchandise trade growth in h1 2025 transition gap 102 billion the gap between investment in fossil fuels and sustainable energy sources grew to 102 billion in 2025 south south trade 35 south south trade now accounts for 35 of global flows outpacing north north trade and rising the architecture of global trade is being rebuilt through rupture the future of trade 2026 is the sixth edition of dmcc s biennial flagship report on the changing nature of global commerce as the old architecture gives way the 2026 edition is defined by rupture and what comes next in global trade the four forces shaping the future of global trade the ai shift tariff disruptions supply chains rebuilt the energy race the ai shift ai has transitioned from experimentation to operational reality but the bigger shift is ahead forecasts predict that by 2028 33 of enterprise software applications will include agentic ai up from less than 1 in 2024 and that at least 15 of work decisions will be made by ai agents tariff disruptions trump s second term and the decline of the wto have replaced rules based trade with bilateral deals bloc based arrangements and permanent uncertainty businesses should expect escalation as the default for trade policy supply chains rebuilt supply chains are in a permanent state of stress testing the iran conflict geopolitical fractures and critical mineral bottlenecks have made diversification a continuous operational discipline businesses have moved from china 1 to china many the energy race the energy transition has been reframed from a climate imperative to a race for industrial supremacy those controlling clean tech inputs manufacturing capacity and grid infrastructure will determine the terms of this new industrial race the certainties that underpinned global trade are gone what takes their place will define the decade ahead watch video explore the chapters chapter 1 chapter 2 chapter 3 chapter 4 a world trade disorder the rules based trading system that governed global commerce is no longer the primary frame of reference for businesses making decisions about where to source invest and sell what do businesses do when the rulebook disappears chapter 1 explores the forces that dismantled world trade and what businesses and governments must now operate within learn more view in fullscreen top 5 actions businesses are taking in response to geopolitical risk source dmcc future of trade survey 2026 of respondents selecting each option 98 of businesses cite geopolitical tensions as a major or moderate factor reshaping trade flows over the next 1 3 years the new trade map geopolitical ruptures have not stopped trade but have fundamentally redirected it the wto forecasts merchandise export growth of 1 9 in 2026 recovering to 2 6 in 2027 but strip out ai related goods and the underlying picture is considerably weaker the real story is not the headline number but where growth is happening and why chapter 2 maps the new trade flows identifies which hubs are capturing redirected volumes and presents the latest dmcc commodity trade index to reveal where the genuine opportunity lies learn more view in fullscreen trade volume growth 2022 2027 source imf 2026a ai goods now represent 15 of global trade by volume but drove 43 of its growth in the first half of 2025 the technology divide the gap between the most and least digitalised sectors is wide digital infrastructure leads at the top of the dmcc industry digitalisation index 2026 production sits at the bottom though accelerating ai and cloud adoption drove its biggest single year improvement on record chapter 3 quantifies the divide through the dmcc industry digitalisation index and examines the financial infrastructure and data barriers reshaping trade alongside it learn more view in fullscreen dmcc industry digitalisation index by component 2026 vs 2024 source eurostat oecd cebr analysis ai related trade reached 1 92 trillion in the first half of 2025 up more than 20 year on year the race for industrial supremacy the energy transition has been reframed what began as a climate imperative is now a race for industrial supremacy fought over clean tech inputs ev factories grid infrastructure and critical minerals supply chains low carbon energy investment hit a record 2 3 trillion globally in 2025 up 8 and is projected to reach 2 9 trillion over the next five years chapter 4 examines who is winning that contest who is losing and what it means for trade learn more view in fullscreen total mineral demand for clean energy technologies 2010 2040 source iea 2021b in 2025 china led clean energy investments 1 china 800 billion 2 eu 455 billion 3 united states 378 billion view in fullscreen top 5 actions businesses are taking in response to geopolitical risk source dmcc future of trade survey 2026 of respondents selecting each option view in fullscreen trade volume growth 2022 2027 source imf 2026a view in fullscreen dmcc industry digitalisation index by component 2026 vs 2024 source eurostat oecd cebr analysis view in fullscreen total mineral demand for clean energy technologies 2010 2040 source iea 2021b dmcc 2026 commodity trade and industry digitalisation indexes dmcc commodity trade index 2026 tariffs conflict and fracturing supply chains are redrawing the map of global commodity trade the hubs that held their ground two years ago are not necessarily the ones holding it now for the first time the dmcc commodity trade index 2026 uses nowcasting data to evaluate the impact of real time disruptions including the strait of hormuz closure and escalating global tariffs ranking the world s ten most significant commodity trade hubs across location commodity endowment and institutional strength to reveal who is gaining who is slipping and why it matters learn more first second and biggest mover the united states the uae and the netherlands lead the index score 2026 rankings country index score 2026 united states 57 united arab emirates 47 netherlands 47 switzerland 44 hong kong sar china 43 ai adoption varies significantly across industries the pattern is consistent whether in europe or the united states view in fullscreen source eurostat oecd cebr analysis industry digitalisation index the dmcc industry digitalisation index 2026 tracks digitalisation progress across sectors and four core business functions the variation across industries is striking the sectors furthest behind are among the largest employers in the global economy learn more expert perspectives on global trade chapter 1 a world trade disorder something like 80 of global trade is carried by sea and any threats to freedom of navigation can have a massive range of second third order impacts from rising insurance premiums rising commodity prices disruption to energy food commodity flows miha hribernik chief asia geopolitical strategist deutsche bank chapter 2 new trade map the level of trust that characterised global trade between 1980 and sometime into the new millennium is not in general going to prevail so every country regardless of which alliance they are part of and whether they are part of multiple alliances would prefer to err on the side of a just in case approach dr v anantha nageswaran chief economic advisor to the government of india chapter 3 the technology divide if you re a bank and you want to tokenise your deposits because it enables faster settlement it can reduce your operations cost you don t care what the price of bitcoin is you don t care where the broader market cap is you re just focused on creating efficiencies for your business jim ferraioli director of crypto research and strategy charles schwab chapter 4 clean energy the race for industrial supremacy we ll see the saudis build even more infrastructure to avoid the strait and iraq will build more infrastructure the uae will build more infrastructure everyone will start building more infrastructure to move things away from the strait which means that trade flows will start to change again michelle brouhard head of policy and geopolitical risk kpler slideshare view the 2026 report s key findings in the executive summary 2026 future of trade report your in depth view into the transformative forces behind global trade download report snapshot report the key insights of our future of trade report download snapshot download your future of trade 2026 report id dmcc dubai have questions want to chat more reach out to our experts all rights reserved copyright dmcc 2026
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