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description=Posts about class written by Phil;

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labour in 1997 but changed hands twice since then out of the remainder we could also distinguish between big wins for the tories and narrow wins the kind of seat gains that happen in any election when the tide is running strongly in one party s favour as i think we can all agree it was for the tories in 2019 having looked at the data i m defining a big win as one where the labour vote in 2019 fell 10 or more relative to 2017 and was lower than at any time since and including 2001 and where the eventual tory majority was 5 or more comparing these factors against the losing labour share of the vote i found that the lowest labour vote of any constituency in the narrow win group where at most two of these criteria are met was 39 8 all the rest had a labour vote of 40 or above conversely every constituency in the big win group ticking all three boxes had a labour vote below 37 some other big win seats outside the burn murdoch ellipse had higher labour votes than that with one wolverhampton north east hitting 39 8 none reached 40 though this suggested to me that i was on the right track intuitively and thinking back to the first post in this series a seat where 40 of people still vote labour is not one that s gone conservative so here s a revised map the pale lilac constituencies are those tory gains which had already changed hands twice in the previous twenty years the mauve ones are the narrow wins and the white one as before is the new speaker lastly the constituencies in dark grey are those tory gains whose previous mps by the time of the election had left the labour party and were campaigning against it in one case actually calling for a conservative vote i don t know how much weight to give to this it isn t a factor one usually has to take into account but it can t have done labour s chances of holding those seats any good this map looks a bit different from the one above west of the pennines in fact west of the derbyshire dales labour s losses are almost exclusively seats that had been lost and regained by labour within the last twenty years bury north burnley or narrow wins by the tories ashton under lyne hyndburn bury south in grey is also in this group again i m not saying that labour didn t lose all of those seats or that we haven t got a mountain to climb next time round i am saying that a world in which thirty labour strongholds have suddenly turned into tory strongholds say is a different world and calls for different strategies than one where this has only happened in ten labour strongholds but the tories have squeaked a win in another ten as well as re taking ten labour marginals the idea of the red wall as we ve come to know it makes a great story labour heartland voters left stranded by the decline in heavy industry and the rise of social liberalism abandon their decades long loyalties to vote for the party of britain and brexit but we need to deal with the problem we ve got not with a problem that would make more dramatic sense i m not saying there were no red wall seats in the sense of that label that s now accepted in the 2019 election on the contrary some seats fit the profile very well the question is how many there were and how typical they were both of the seats labour lost and of the seats where labour needs to campaign the question is to put it bluntly whether the true red wall seats were labour s heartland at all and if not whether basing party strategy and policy on the imperative of regaining those seats might do more harm than good i ll go into this in the next post for now here s another map rather than being based on tory targeting this one shows all labour seats in the region going into the 2017 election including the ones we held plus two birkenhead and nottingham east that we took back from squatters frank field and chris leslie both stood in 2019 under their new colours relative to 2017 when they held those seats for labour their votes dropped by 59 7 and 67 9 respectively cheers guys nice knowing you yes that red wall of labour constituencies is certainly well it s got some gaps in it now so there s that funny how it s mostly the big square constituencies that go to the tories while the small squiggly ones stay labour isn t it one last map here below is london one loss courtesy of tory defector sam gyimah and a really disgraceful campaign to portray a divisive third place candidate as a unifying winner one seat reclaimed from a squatter mike gapes whose vote dropped by a magnificent 68 5 compared to 2017 and one gain since the gain is putney which hadn t been labour since 2005 this offers a partial and belated confirmation for james kanagasooriam s original analysis he d cited putney as an example of the kind of seat that the tories held despite its demographics suggesting it ought to be labour there are also of course an awful lot of small squiggly red holds perhaps it s not so surprising that conservative strategists and conservative leaning commentators like balls and kanagasooriam preferred to concentrate on the wide open spaces of the north south yorkshire and the east midlands and make out that the tories were winning the seats that really matter there are or were gains to be made up there of course there was a tory majority for the taking and by god they took it but if you re looking for a real red wall if you re looking for traditional labour seats in working class areas and plenty of them look at how even now you can go from the fylde coast to saddleworth moor without setting foot in a tory constituency or cross the whole of greater london either way heathrow to dagenham or barnet to croydon despite what had happened in the true and increasingly ironically named red wall areas and despite how disastrous the results were overall labour s starting point after 2019 should have been in the immortal words of granny weatherwax we aten t dead the big red wall losses the purple constituencies were serious but they weren t typical by treating them as if they were we ran the risk at best of losing momentum and having to run to catch up when people began to mobilise again at worst of facing in the wrong direction and becoming irrelevant ps on a side note i ve referred a few times to former labour mps who stood against labour in 2019 here are all of them name 2017 2019 as tig as ld as ind luciana berger 79 5 31 9 frank field 76 9 17 2 mike gapes 75 8 7 3 roger godsiff 77 6 8 1 chris leslie 71 5 3 6 gavin shuker 62 4 9 2 angela smith 45 8 11 chuka umunna 68 5 30 7 chris williamson 48 5 1 4 chris williamson s performance must be some sort of record for former mps standing in their own former constituency then again it s only a drop of 46 9 in that respect roger godsiff the only mp actually to be deselected under the corbyn leadership trivia fans leads the pack with a 69 5 plummet in his personal vote the last two tigers aren t far behind though which is worse mike gapes dropping 68 5 of his vote or chris leslie losing 67 9 and his deposit either way those are quite the performances even in 1983 the big shakeup which the chukers were surely hoping to emulate the biggest comparable fall i could find was from 61 5 to 11 arthur lewis newham north west labour retook the seat comfortably nice to see that some things don t change on a side note to the side note it s rather striking that only one of the eight ex labour members of change uk angela smith had received less than 50 of the vote at the previous election indeed only one other joan ryan had had less than 60 the role of safe seat complacency in decisions to defect not to mention vanity and general ned lagg ery shouldn t be understated but we should probably get back to that red wall share this print opens in new window print email a link to a friend opens in new window email share on x opens in new window x share on facebook opens in new window facebook like loading by phil also posted in bitterness and spite britain england politics red wall thinly veiled schadenfreude uncategorized comments 0 in search of the red wall 2 8 april 2021 12 26 apart from anything else what red wall stupid question right we all know about the red wall on twitter you can read that boris johnson s decision to slash aid to poorest countries was made to appeal to red wall voters that if starmer exclusively panders to the red wall to the point of excusing homophobia his support could begin to wane in the party and if labour continue down the road of appeasing red wall voters they are heading for the wilderness and that labour needs to start talking about brexit and come up with solutions even if it pisses the red wall off although if enough remainers had continued to support labour many red wall midlands seats would still be lab i only single those out because they were all written within the last hour and they weren t the only examples i could have chosen everyone knows what the red wall is or was everyone knows who red wall voters are the issues that matter to them and the policies that appeal to them at least everyone knows the issues that get stressed and the policies that get adopted in order to appeal to red wall voters which isn t necessarily the same thing you dear reader almost certainly know all about the red wall yourself and if i set the controls of my handy tardis for t minus 2 years and asked the april 2019 version of you for your take on the red wall what would you have said would you have said that change uk posed a threat to labour s red wall for instance particularly given that three of the eleven constituencies they squatted were right there in it two ex labour one ex tory i m telling you now dear reader no no you wouldn t have i can say that with some confidence because i ve seen what people were saying about labour and the red wall at the time and it s this absolutely nothing in other words before the 14th of august 2019 precisely five tweets include the phrase red wall and the word labour two of them refer to actual walls and two to a metaphorical wall of politicians the last one looks more like the current usage but it s from 2011 and presumably isn t connected what changed on the 14th of august 2019 this 16 part thread on where the u k conservative party has historically and is still under performing and why that s interesting for any upcoming election 1 16 james kanagasooriam jameskanag august 14 2019 i won t import the entire thread the link should work if you want to read the whole thing these excerpts should give you the idea the unders are constituencies where the results don t fall according to the factors that seem to determine voting patterns most of the time which is to say group based factors built on individual factors such as social class level of education type of employment and ethnicity more specifically they re seats that haven t gone tory the way they would have done if those factors had determined the way people voted and they re not randomly dotted about the place they re clustered here s one such cluster the other three groups were tory seats in the southwest which might be vulnerable to the lib dems tory seats held by first time incumbents and labour seats in ex mining areas specifically south wales and the north east only one seat in the whole of those two groups went to the tories in 2019 north west durham so i won t consider them for the time being here s the first the original map of the red wall just to hammer on this point one more time what you re looking at are labour seats where the uk conservative party has historically sic and still is under performing areas that vote differently to how you would expect them to demographically an entire stretch that shouldn t be all labour on the basis of demographics but is there are a couple of odd things about this map one is that despite the previous comment these seats weren t all labour the inverted l shaped seat halfway across is cheadle which not only isn t but never has been labour and was presumably included on the basis of tory underperformance the other is that a seat not being shaded in red doesn t mean it isn t labour on the contrary it means either that it isn t labour or that it s solidly labour labour by vote and by typified demographics there s your red wall though that s what it originally meant it s a wall because they re contiguous or nearly and it s red because they re labour and shouldn t be it s a wall because it s vulnerable perhaps wall wasn t the best word to choose next what happened next share this print opens in new window print email a link to a friend opens in new window email share on x opens in new window x share on facebook opens in new window facebook like loading by phil also posted in britain england meeja red wall comments 0 i was a young man 17 july 2018 20 14 it started as things so often do these days with a tweet uk survation poll eu membership ref 18 24 remain 80 leave 20 25 34 remain 75 leave 25 35 44 remain 67 leave 33 45 54 remain 44 leave 56 55 64 remain 46 leave 54 65 74 remain 41 leave 59 75 remain 18 leave 82 field work 7 07 18 sample size 808 europe elects europeelects july 8 2018 as alex commented there are some interesting contrasts in there particularly between 35 44 and 45 54 and then between 65 74 and 75 three age cohorts then let s assume that those _5 dividing lines are partially smoothing out sharper divisions ending with 0 rather than 5 there s no real reason for this assumption admittedly other than the tendency for people to think in terms of being in their thirties or forties rather than being in the 25 34 or 35 44 age range if that is the case our cohorts looks like this under 40s mostly pro remain 40 70 fairly evenly divided but with leave sympathy growing with age and 70 mostly pro leave why though kicking this around on twitter i thought of douglas adams s dictum from the salmon of doubt which presumably means from his journalism about technology i ve come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies anything that is in the world when you re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works anything that s invented between when you re fifteen and thirty five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it anything invented after you re thirty five is against the natural order of things i think the effective opposition between 1 and 3 is psychologically true and useful to think with it s a bit disquieting as it suggests that we ll be equally positive about limitlessfreeenergy plc and unmitigated charlatanry inc if we come across them at the right time in our lives and equally cynical about both if it s the wrong time but that s no bad thing i also think that something similar is true of politics and political change with a couple of qualifications first we need to do something about that blank between birth and 15 and should it really be birth how much of anything do we retain from before the age of five say second 35 doesn...