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the give and take with my few cherished readers so i may be back once i ve figured out a way of doing this or something like this that still makes sense to me in the meantime don t bother to check in daily or weekly and stop hitting the refresh button check in every couple of months if you want to show extraordinary loyalty if and when i start things up again i ll either do it here or i ll mention here where i m doing it and thanks for all your attention and the insights you shared with me over the past five years that this blog has been active posted by noah at 6 12 pm comment thursday december 28 2006 let s see how i did on last year s predictions before going on to this year 1 senator john mccain will stage a significant mountain muhammad confab with a major leader of the religious right e g dobson colson not robertson obviously who will bless him in his quest for the gop nomination his gop numbers will immediately improve and his general election numbers and image with the media will immediately drop as all concerned discover that he is a republican giuliani will not run for president the remaining gop candidates will compete all year to position themselves as the anti mccains tom tancredo will declare that if mccain is the nominee he will run for president as an independent whether or not to seize immigration as the issue on which to run against mccain becomes a major point of debate in the conservative blogosphere but not in the actual campaign wrong early anyway none of this has happened yet at least some of it will happen in 2007 specifically i predict that senator sam brownback will endorse john mccain for president causing k lo s head to explode as for guiliani he ll run if he thinks he has a shot not if he thinks mccain has it all sewn up he s going to announce one way or the other relatively late mid 2007 the immigration related political predictions i stand by for 2007 if mccain is the nominee tancredo s head will explode and you will see a 3rd party challenge lou dobbs whether the bid gets any traction i e more than 2 of the final vote total is another story i d guess not but it ll get a lot of press on the way there 2 kadima sharon s new party will win a resounding victory in the israeli parliamentary elections but sharon will still have difficulty cobbling together a coalition because a the parties to his right do better than expected but they are committed to refuse to join a coalition unless further unilateral withdrawals are ruled out b labor and meretz refuse at least initially to form a government with sharon and c shinui whose representation drops in half but is still a factor refuses to sit in a government with the ultra orthodox parties sharon uses his difficulties as the springboard to propose major changes to israel s constitution making the prime minister more independent of the parliament outside of israel the least noticed story about the israeli elections is that the percentage of labor votes coming from arab voters hits an all time high meanwhile terrorist attacks planned in gaza will prompt israel to send the idf back into the territory in a small scale repeat of operation defensive shield sharon will not die wrong on virtually all counts 3 canada will finally elect a conservative government barely italy on the other hand will elect romano prodi right and right again 4 hosni mubarak will be hospitalized for a period of days during which speculation about the stability of egypt will spiral out of control then he ll come out of the hospital to rule for several more years wrong although for all i know this happened and i just missed it 5 lopez obrador will win the mexican presidency by a decisive margin this will not be the end of the world and in particular will not mean major changes in mexican fiscal or monetary policy but it will be the end of the period of remarkably friendly relations between mexico and the u s that obtained under the last two presidencies and a return to something resembling the historic norm not adversarial relations but not exactly friendly lopez obrador will ostentatiously embrace hugo chavez and evo morales and will court the eu china and brazil as a way of restraining american imperialism but this will mostly amount to rhetoric mexico bolivia and venezuela will however declare that they are opposed to american attempts to combat the drug trade by military means and cooperation in this area will be significantly affected wrong though i sometimes wonder whether an amlo victory wouldn t have been better than the split decision that actually transpired though of course i think a clear pan victory would have been better than either 6 brokeback mountain will win best picture other nominees walk the line good night and good luck munich and i m not sure what else ang lee will win best director philip seymour hoffmann will win best actor for capote other nominees heath ledger for brokeback mountain david strathairn for good night and good luck joaquin phoenix for walk the line and jeff daniels for the squid and the whale reese witherspoon will win best actress for walk the line laura linney will also be nominated for the squid and the whale as will judi dench for mrs henderson presents but i m not sure who else the capote oscar will be the second data point that will allow journalists to extrapolate a trend from brokeback mountain and 2005 will be known as the year of the gay film breakout in hollywood someone somewhere will also notice that everyone nominated for everything this year is white maybe morgan freeman will be nominated for best voice for march of the penguins so everyone can breathe easier i should note that of the films mentioned above penguins is the only one i ve seen though i really wanted to see capote and i suppose i will rent it who cares this is ancient history 7 neither north korea nor iran will test a nuclear weapon and neither country will be attacked by either the u s or any other country nor will either country experience regime change wrong right right and right note i originally gave myself full credit on this one since the nork test was probably a dud but that s cheating they sure tested something presumably a nuke so only 75 credit on this one 8 a major terrorist incident will occur in russia bigger than even the spectacular events that have already occurred the last vestiges of democratic governance and the rule of law will be eliminated in response nonetheless the west will conclude collectively that we had better continue betting on putin because the alternatives chess playing dissenters notwithstanding are worse i m going to give myself almost full credit for this one trend lines in russia are all pointing the way i said and for that matter so is the western response but there was no spectacular trigger 9 stocks will have a surprisingly strong year led by business equipment technology and telecom the housing market will continue to soften and the dollar will weaken gains to stocks will be driven by an upswing in business investment an increase in corporate leverage increasing returns to shareholders at the expense of bondholders and utter legislative paralysis in washington there will be no bernanke panic induced market tumble but not because inflation is tame inflation will be higher than anticipated by year end basically right stocks up but not led by tech housing market weaker dollar down against euro but flat against yen inflation signals ambiguous at year end there was no bernanke panic because bernanke was tough on inflation 10 tom delay will lose his house seat rick santorum will lose his senate seat harold ford will win the open senate seat in tennessee nonetheless the gop will hold both houses of congress albeit by reduced margins this will fool republicans into thinking they are more popular than they are right right wrong wrong and wrong not too bad in the scheme of political predictions 11 donald rumsfeld will resign he will not be replaced by john mccain or james webb so will john snow he will not be replaced by larry kudlow or james cramer right right right and right 12 america will not substantially withdraw from iraq any troop drawdowns will be largely pr stunts the news will continue to be a wearying mix of good and bad with no signs of an end but no sufficiently dramatic negative news to change the political dynamic in america iraq will remain a unitary state but not indefinitely kurdistan will eventually break off but not this year right although i think it s fairer to say that the news from iraq has gone from mixed to bad to definitely bad and the political dynamic has indeed changed but i m still giving myself full credit for now 13 general motors will fire its ceo the new ceo will be widely expected to take the company into chapter 11 in 2007 a chinese company will publicly speculate about purchasing some or all of gm s brands pat buchanan will cite this as evidence of the imminent end of the republic he will be wrong wrong but my heart was in the right place 14 john derbyshire will actually read the first novel in philip pullman s his dark materials series and discover that he likes it very much he will speculate aloud in the corner about whether he is unconsciously trying to get himself fired fortunately for his wife and children he ll decide he doesn t like the third book in the series and is kept on wrong but my heart was definitely in the right place 15 al gore will form an exploratory committee pursuant to a presidential campaign so will john kerry the gore announcement will be news no one will notice what john kerry does yes i am stealing this prediction outright from mickey kaus sue me wrong but just early i ll predict this happens in 2007 16 i will try my first bottle of wine from the gobi desert wrong 17 one crisis country in the news will be the philippines some combination of terrorism corruption domestic instability economic crisis the country will be in the news because bad things will be happening however america responds china will emerge the more influential in that country wrong 18 a referendum will be held to break up at least one of the following countries belgium canada italy bosnia iraq spain wrong though i will give myself part credit for the hoax broadcast claiming belgium had broken up 6 of the belgian public still believes the hoax even after the same station that aired it owned up 19 the german party of democratic socialism will take a sharp nationalist turn an utterly politically incorrect statement by a party leader about deporting foreigners or retaking konigsberg or something similary inflammatory will give the party a noticeable boost to third place in the polls very far behind the cdu csu and social democrats but meaningfully ahead of the free democrats and greens as with le pen in france the rise of the unacceptable right in germany will prompt general hand wringing and urgent calls to redouble efforts towards political union in europe wrong so far as i know i think i don t know enough about the complexion of german political parties to make sensible predictions 20 japan s economic recovery will accelerate it s nascent pro natal policy initiatives will also begin to bear fruit surprisingly quickly albeit modestly japanese nationalism will also be on the rise with increasing questions whether the country should change its constitution to permit a more robust forward defense what naval and missile capabilities are necessary to deter a rising china and whether japan should even become a declared nuclear power in its own right the rising sun will be a year long news story in 2006 right more or less the recovery is accelerating and nationalism is very plainly on the rise complete with discussion about amending the constitution and possible nuclearization it s too soon to know whether the pro natal policies are having any effect at all though and japan wasn t in the paper nearly as much as i thought it should have been 21 sam alito will be confirmed with at least 65 and fewer than 75 votes no other supreme court justices will retire or die in 2006 roe v wade will not be overturned right on the outcome wrong on the vote total 22 eliot spitzer will be elected governor of new york as punishment for pataki s sins steve westly will be elected governor of california after upsetting phil angelides in the primary ted strickland will be elected governor of ohio by the end of 2006 democrats will have elected a substantial number of senators and governors with white house potential the gop bench strength advantage will have evaporated this won t matter for 2008 much but it will in 2012 2016 and 2020 right except for the california prediction though note that i was savvy enough to know that angelides didn t have a prayer in the general and hence based my dem pickup prediction on the prediction that he would lose the primary 23 carbs will be good for you again the new health bugaboo will be caffeine wrong i bet though i haven t followed the health news at all 24 bruce ratner will get whatever he wants development wise larry silverstein will not right atlantic yards has been approved and ground zero is still at least somewhat up for grabs 25 i will finally write a book sadly wrong posted by noah at 12 22 pm comment tuesday december 19 2006 i wrote this post before leaving for vacation but somehow didn t manage to post it now i m back and it s a bit stale but i m going to post it anyway the telegraph has inaugurated an splendid new game the game of never charles moore explains the rules and plays a round with some eyebrow raising results john derbyshire enters the lists as well this is self evidently the best game of this sort of the year my own entry follows i am embarrassed to admit that looking at the list i appear barely to have lived at all i have never owned a car owned a television set owned a house i do own my apartment or more accurately shares in a coop owned a gun owned a dog and yet in spite of all the above i am a registered republican go figure studied economics business finance or statistics and yet i make my living on wall street happy face here fired an employee quit a proper full time job placed an advertisement not even for a roommate sued or been sued by anyone my mother once sued the city on my behalf for an injury sustained on school grounds when i was a child but that doesn t count crashed a car i said crashed not barely bumped fenders filed for a patent well i m not too surprised about this one but i am embarrassed had a negative net worth no not even in college and no i m not independently wealthy installed an operating system i actually have one in a box at home which i am afraid to open grown a vegetable not sure i ve successfully grown anything but certainly not a vegetable joined a proper club i e the kind you have to be accepted into to join again unless you count my coop or college which i don t been elected to anything no not even in high school volunteered for ha...