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ks on the coalition for years if the alp can regain their strength on the issue of health that will be more positive ammunition for the alp to use during the election campaign it s early to make this judgement but finally the alp seem to have their act together post navigation older posts negative politics communication framing perceptions politics psychology july 7 2013 1 comment in the first week of rudd s leadership we had the words diplomatic conflict used in relation to the coalition s asylum seeker policy which sent conservatives into both a frenzy of kermit arms hysteria and political mistakes yesterday the alp released their first advertisement for the upcoming election campaign for those who haven t seen it yet here it is this advertisement has thrown a couple of new verbal grenades into the national debate the first was negative politics and the second was raise the standards cynics and the political insider crowd might deride this sort of communication as spin however this ignores the fact that rudd is directly addressing a serious issue for people in relation to politics in this country the public s disgust at the negativity used from both sides of politics and the perceived decline in the standard of the national conversation they re powerful lines on their own but in the combination they have been used in this advertisement they re deadly firstly rudd is qualifying himself for people in order to establish a high standard of performance as prime minister in other words he wants to do the best job he can possibly do he s not mucking around it s very important to make this clear before we go into anything else because it s the key to how this sort of communication works if it was simply about countering the evil menace tony abbott and the liberal party the whole thing falls apart as a leader he is defining the criteria for people to make their own assessment on his performance this is the base for everything that follows secondly any attack directed at rudd based on the content of this advertisement by the coalition has already been framed as negative politics any move they make has the hue of negative politics to it before they even decide to move a muscle lastly any type of negative politics used by the coalition is by definition not raising the standard of public debate what people desperately want right now and therefore adding to rudd s credibility and the alp s election campaign material on top of all that tony abbott has already been narrowed and defined to the words negative and no over a three year period so for him to break free of this word prism he has placed himself in he ll have to be acting inconsistent with his public persona which would make the communications material coming from the coalition even more of a complete mess than it is already to be continued post navigation older posts the time dynamic the case for going late community emotions framing leadership perceptions politics psychology strategy july 6 2013 1 comment there is a lot of speculation right now about when the next election will be held will prime minister kevin rudd try and take advantage of the alp s sudden rise in the opinion polls or will he play mind games with tony abbott and go to a late election i m firmly of the view that prime minister kevin rudd should decide to go for a late election there are a few reasons for this that go beyond the usually yakety yak yak that you ll hear from the various commentators in the media firstly kevin rudd needs to establish himself in the public s mind as the prime minister this means using the authority of the office to make decisions in the national interest if this means recalling the parliament to make a few legislative tweaks in the coming months so be it journalist katherine murphy in the guardian last week went into some detail on this point in what i thought was a very good opinion piece secondly going late allows the alp to come up with a campaign ground game for victory this is not something that can be rushed there needs to be as much time as possible given for the alp campaign team to come up with a strategy for winning at least 76 seats state by state electorate by electorate thirdly there have been reports of both a membership and donation surge within the alp since kevin rudd returned to the leadership there needs to be time for this to be measured in order to allocate campaign resources and get the logistic settings for the election campaign as correct as possible lastly and most importantly is the framing of the national conversation what going late ultimately does is allow the alp and the prime minister to gain control of the framing of the national conversation the more tony abbott and the coalition call for an early election and attack on issues where they feel they are strong and where they think the alp and kevin rudd are vulnerable the more they look sound and feel like an opposition and the more the alp and kevin rudd will look sound and feel like both a government and a prime minister who are in control of events this week we have seen the prime minister deal with three major issues australia s relationship with indonesia border protection and asylum seekers have now been framed by kevin rudd as an issue within this issue reform of the new south wales branch of the alp and the deaths related to the home insulation scheme which was rolled out during the economic stimulus in 2008 09 the coalition have tried to tear the prime minister down on each one of these issues without success the longer they try and the more they fail the more desperate and the more stupid they will look around october last year coalition pollster mark textor wrote an opinion piece for the australian financial review in which he said the most successful leaders in the next few years will be those who slow the political and comment process down enough for voters to catch up after all the whole point about politics commerce and leadership is for people to be participants not passengers in a car stuck in the slow lane by slowing down the time dynamic the alp and the prime minister give themselves and the community time to digest the big picture and the important issues that will decide this election if they go early because they think the rise in the opinion polls is everything and there is no substance to what the prime minister is doing because they think electoral politics is all about the popularity of the leader rather than anything that affects people s day to day lives they will be handing the massive advantage they have presently to the coalition post navigation older posts if the facts don t fit a frame the frame stays and the facts bounce off books emotions framing perceptions politics polling psychology july 1 2013 leave a comment galaxy research and essential media communications have thrown up some interesting qualitative results in the last few days in relation to perceptions of the alp leadership change before i get to that i want to examine the ac nielsen poll results from last month in relation to alp voters responses on the question of preferred alp leader ac nielsen preferred alp leader alp voters 16th june julia gillard 52 rudd 46 over the last three years this sort of result was replicated month after month and many on the various social media platforms that discuss australian politics used these sorts of results to suggest that rudd wasn t liked by alp voters and it was all a liberal party media conspiracy to destabilise julia gillard s leadership on sunday galaxy research produced these results that suggest a very different narrative q in your opinion did labor make the right decision by rejecting julia gillard and endorsing kevin rudd total yes 57 no 31 alp voters yes 75 no 17 coalition voters yes 50 no 41 even more profound was galaxy s results for the actions of bill shorten who was one of the faceless men in the june 2010 leadership change q do you think bill shorten did the right thing for the labor party by shifting support from julia gillard to kevin rudd total yes 52 no 30 alp voters yes 75 no 13 coalition voters yes 40 no 44 essential media communications from yesterday showed similar results however they have breakdowns that show intensity of response i find these results very interesting q do you approve or disapprove of kevin rudd replacing julia gillard as leader of the labor party total vote labor vote lib nat vote greens total approve 55 77 40 48 total disapprove 31 13 49 37 strongly approve 24 45 12 8 approve 31 32 28 40 disapprove 15 8 22 23 strongly disapprove 16 5 27 14 don t know 14 10 12 16 of particular note is the strongly approved category in relation to alp voters if this leadership change was seen as a cynical manipulation of the political process the intensities of response would not be so strong according to this essential media poll 45 of alp respondents strongly approved of last weeks events we aren t talking about a mere passive approval of what happened which could easily fall off into neutrality and disapproval over the coming weeks and months we re talking about a very large group of alp voters who are very satisfied with what happened in order to change the perceptions of these voters you ve got to do a hell of a lot of work as they ve emotionally bought what has happened and are in strong approval of it it is also worth comparing the ac nielsen polling above with the galaxy research and essential media polling from after the event because how people think they will respond to a potential event and how they will actually respond after that potential event has occurred are not mutually exclusive put simply people are extremely poor judges of predicting how they will respond to potential and future events george lakoff in his book don t think of an elephant has a great quote to be accepted the facts must fit people s frames if the facts don t fit a frame the frame stays and the facts bounce off if the coalition attempt to try and play their game of let s all feel sorry for julia because she was knifed by the faceless men and that evil kevin rudd they will be paddling viciously upstream because first they have to deal with the fact that they will be contradicting the three year period they have spent deriding and destroying her leadership to ordinary people the events of last week were a consequence of this behaviour from the coalition and second they have to deal with the perception battle because people approved of what happened and in alp voters case a majority strongly approved of what happened the emotional component the more they yell shout and scream the sort of lines they have all parroted verbatim over the last three years the more they will be building kevin rudd s reputation authority credibility and approval from the community it s not just the liberal party who have to deal with this uncomfortable reality author kerry anne walsh whose book the stalking of julia gillard how the media and team rudd contrived to bring down the prime minister goes on sale today also will encounter this framing from people that is of course if people actually bother to buy and read the book how this plays out with the emotional dynamic over the coming weeks and months should be fascinating post navigation older posts sugar do do do do do do oh honey honey do do do do do do communication community politics polling june 30 2013 leave a comment over the last five days we ve had four polls from morgan reachtel galaxy research and newspoll which all show similar voting intention results morgan sms 26th june 2013 alp 38 coalition 41 reachtel 27th june 2013 alp 38 3 coalition 45 1 galaxy research 27th 28th june 2013 alp 38 coalition 44 newspoll 28th 30th june 2013 alp 35 coalition 43 in a previous post i wrote that the structural primary votes of the major parties in australia are alp 38 coalition 43 so far the parties appear to have reverted to their structural base positions this is very encouraging news for the alp and disturbing news for the coalition who have spent the last three years establishing a very well detailed sophisticated and effective campaign strategy only to find a sudden change of battlefield and their canned lines having no real significance to people s lives anymore in another previous post i suggested that the alp needed to win seats in queensland in order to win the next election early reports suggest that the alp is seeing a massive turnaround in the state here are some examples over the last year of what kevin rudd has been doing in queensland in recent days there have been reports that the alp is seeing a massive recovery in it s position in queensland given that kevin rudd has been campaigning heavily for over a year against the very unpopular actions of the newman lnp state government i wouldn t be surprised if this local campaign begins to take on a national significance there s very little that tony abbott or the coalition can do to compete with this type of personal sophisticated localised relevant and timely campaigning there s also been a few conservative mouth pieces and associates when this guy starts freaking out you know they re in trouble in recent days attempting to spin the recent rise in the alp s position as merely a sugar hit that will dissipate in the coming weeks and months as people see how much of a brutal tyrant kevin rudd is towards his colleagues how the alp are disrespecting the people s mandate by not calling an early election as well as the tired old lines like tax tax tax debt debt debt and so on the only sugar hit i m hearing right now is this one post navigation older posts perceptions of diplomatic conflict communication emotions framing perceptions psychology june 29 2013 comments 2 kevin rudd s return to the prime ministership allows us to explore some of the more nuanced aspects of political communication on his second day in the job he has got many on the conservative side of politics up in arms over two simple words in relation to the issue of foreign affairs diplomatic conflict here is the full quote from his press conference yesterday i am concerned about mr abbott s policy where he says he can turn the boats back to indonesia i really wonder whether he s trying to risk some sort of conflict with indonesia that s not a good thing it s a really bad thing he continued what i m talking about is diplomatic conflict but i m always wary about where diplomatic conflicts go what happens on day one when field marshal tony puts out the order to the captain of the australian naval frigate x to turn back a bunch of boats and you ve got naval frigate from the indonesian navy on the other side of the equation it has been repeatedly said that one of rudd s major weaknesses is the issue of asylum seekers stopping the boats after all has been one of the key lines tony abbott has used to frame the national conversation on the coalition s terms over the past three years i m no expert on foreign affa...