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a critical approach to the actual science of climate change contrails the holy grail of ecs basic greenhouse defects the greenhouse defect the most disruptive site on climate science regrettable regressions a reanalysis or how climate science has its eyes wide shut on the statistical blunder that generates false positive feedbacks ok this is something i ran into while analyzing the proxies for climate sensitivity while connected to all the other issues it is a species of blunders on its own right i think it makes for a beautiful showcase of deception compliance and stupidity and i only just realized it and please do not get me wrong i do not want to finger point or put any blame on anyone but this one issue alone has a huge impact on the whole of climate sensitivity and everything downstream the inspiring sod example the chart below is from sod1 and it gives the dolr dts relation over 13 years these are how to flip the sign on feedbacks for context i strongly recommend reading and understanding those two articles first a falsification the incredibly stupid case of water vapor feedback the climate kill switch why feedbacks are actually negative as always basic climate physics is kind of hidden away in climate models which are pretty inaccessible to the outside world but even the climate experts playing with these models might not actually know about the innards writing the code in the back end and publishing model output are two different things anyway once you know about the physics the models try co2 sinks and the ocean this was probably the very first thing i analyzed in terms of climate science i downloaded the rcp pathway s data from the potsdam institute for climate impact research a couple of excel sheets basically for the respective scenarios they had emission pathways concentrations of the respective ghgs and their radiative forcings the data last updated in 2010 are still available1 once i had the data i did the natural thing and started analyzing them my primary interest was on how they treated co2 sinks since emissions and concentrations were in separate sheets i evidently had co2 sinks failing as with a previous article i already pointed out there is something going on either as you could read from the official data co2 sinks have been weakening over the last 15years or there is massive underreporting of our emissions i have looked a little closer at some of the data since then and there are some interesting finds first of all the nonsense paper liu et al 20151 published in nature claimed a 0 499 effective carbon share in chinese coal was 40 less than a 0 713 base assumption by the ipcc defying mathematics so that it had overreported its emissions and thus in all the true co2 emissions of china in the paris agreement china promised to reduce its co2 emissions from 2030 onward relative to 2030 from there on the emissions should shrink to net zero by the year 2060 the interesting feature about this agreement is that up to 2030 china can emit as much as it wants to not just that it even puts itself in a better position by maximizing its emissions because it will have a larger co2 budget to work off later there are further commitments like planting trees decreasing carbon intensity of the gdp or certain shares of renewables in energy consumption but none of these are much the climate kill switch why feedbacks are actually negative outrageous claims may lead to extreme insights it is as old as epistemology itself and a highly useful tool when analyzing things i used it many times before if you think there is a relation a physical law or something think it to the ends what would it mean in the extremes is it still plausible then you always need to put your own thoughts to the test and to anyone mentally fit this is common procedure as anyone i am not endlessly creative when it comes to generating own thoughts that is where outside input education in the best sense comes in handy let me be straight water vapor the simple truth we are learning over time driving a bicycle will feel like the most natural simplistic thing to most of us but that was not always so there will have been a time when it appeared an insurmountable challenge eventually you would manage driving it but of course you still felt insecure and awkward but over time everything settles and you might even learn some stunts dealing with climate physics i had some similar experiences insights even if not fundamentally new become way more understood and obvious over time you learn tricks short cuts you play around with it and soon enough how to hockey stick first of all you will need some really useless random data and lots of them i mean not that they were actual data but just noise they can easily be produced in excel using the rand function i used the expression in d2 rand c2 0 5 c2 0 01 and pulled that expression horizontally over 150 columns what it does effectively is adding some random 0 5 to 0 5 to every data point and containing the growth via the last term subtracting one percent of the deviation from zero the whole procedure is meant to give some nice noise data garbage like in the chart below btw i truncated methane methane as you all will know is a greenhouse gas next to being a by product of digestion by cows as well as our own remarkably that is about where the knowledge ends as there is an awful lot of nonsense circulating on the subject originating both from the consensus as the critical side so let me have short and simple review on the subject that even the ordinary reader should be able to comprehend you know the simple things the common narrative over 20 years the methane would trap about 80 times as much heat as the co2 over 100 years that original ton of methane would trap this planet deserves a better class of climate denier consensus climate science is driven by a lack of criticism critical climate science is driven by a lack of competence both sides add to the impression of a settled science with only idiots rejecting it it is certainly a tragic story and to illustrate it let me present a couple of examples to show what state the critical side is in the named examples are not meant to ridicule the concerning individuals but rather to discuss the prevailing incompetence or disinterest in physics in general a falsification the incredibly stupid case of water vapor feedback in one of the last articles i investigated the radiative flux sic concept with it although i am afraid it is based on really bad logic it is at least possible to reproduce the canonical co2 forcing estimate of some 3 7w m2 however even this theoretical approach is no remedy for a primary water vapor wv feedback of some 1 8w m2 there is simply no way to get even close to this figure even if you push all the limits you will get no higher than 1 2w m2 i mean it will be a lot lower anyway as wv is vastly overrated as a ghg the situation is odd enough given radiative seeing through the atmospheric window ok this is a little issue i ran into and i really wanted to source it out rather than having it bloating up another article while not properly addressing it if you look up the literature like the famous kiehl trenberth papers or wikipedia you will get a straight forward answer the atmospheric window is about 40w m2 in size and of course it is all settled science in reality the settled rather means consensus and consensus means the abolishment of all scientific principles like pluralism and criticism to promote an all too important message just digging a little deeper reveals a cross check to mann s hockey stick sorry for being silent here for way too long i guess i just took on a bad habit of starting articles and not finishing them partly this is because i like to go into depth before making a statement partly it is because climate science is just a target rich environment there are so many absurd stories worth to be told which strangely enough were never covered i can only emphasize again what a miserable job the critical side is doing anyway michael mann s famous or rather infamous hockey stick has been talked about a lot he was brave enough to hide the decline in tree ring unboxing the black box i have written a couple of articles investigating climate sensitivity and asserted it was almost negligible well since negligible is a circumstantial term let me be more precise based on line by line calculations and some necessary corrections to what are identifiable mistakes in the orthodox approach i did end up with a figure of around 0 5k only that would allow for co2 forcing and wv feedback though not for other feedbacks like cloud and albedo these however even when considered in orthodox magnitudes would barely affect the outcome all these calculations were implicitly the anatomy of a climate science disaster last year when gavin schmidt explained the co2 problem in six easy steps on the realclimate blog i could not help to hint towards the surface emissivity problem you know while the consensus largely assumes an emissivity of unity it is rather about 0 91 in reality this blunder alone produces a chain reaction of more severe consequences like overstating the ghe getting the attribution wrong overstating climate sensitivity and messing up climate models in a way that no super computer will ever fix gavin was so kind to respond not really sure why you think this but lw emissivity why 2w m2 co2 forcing is actually quite certain it is funny how the content of this largely ignored site sometimes diffuses into the world of course such education is its scope but one might expect people to communicate a little more open on what their source is or ask for clarification if the content is too complex for them after all this would help to spread the word and gain me some well deserved reputation bob irvine s misunderstanding just a few days ago i had a little déjà vu while reading an article on wuwt the title was the climate feedback debate sounding interesting to me after a couple of paraphrases i could not aerosols in climate science aerosols although poorly understood play a vital role in climate models if you ask why global warming only really started in the 1970s aerosols are the answer if you wonder how the only moderate warming witnessed so far shall support high climate sensitivity again aerosols are the answer so it is about time we take a closer look at them aerosols and volcanos it is true aerosols can cool the planet in fact declining surface temperatures have been observed many times over after volcanic eruptions in the course of an eruption lots of hot gases most importantly sulfur get the mysterious polar amplification i do not know why but climate science seems to be cursed to get everything wrong even if it is completely pointless it puts me into an awkward position to sort out all these side shows when there is a far more significant main line yet you can not really skip it since sooner or later it would haunt you anyway what can i say the polar amplification what does it mean it is pretty simple the poles tend to heat or cool respectively much stronger than the rest of the planet something makes the climate there specifically sensitive when we are talking about ice ages and contrails the basic physics i know focusing on contrails as the main cause for global warming may look a bit strange to most people are they not reflecting sun light should that not be cooling the planet and even in the scientific literature although by now it is consensus new they have some warming momentum this was quite disputed for a long time however if you understand the basic physics of the ghe correctly and there is a lot of confusion out there then contrails are a logical subject of interest as with any component of the atmosphere there are two sides to be considered that is a the sw and b the a little thing about back radiation that people forget as we have discussed ghgs and clouds are overlapped all over the place climate science largely ignores this and the logical implications to it moreover however ghgs overlap themselves so to say it is for this reason that a doubling of co2 will not double its radiative forcing but will only cause a gradual increase some people call this saturation suggesting co2 and other ghgs would hardly enhance the ghe with additional quantities while this is essentially true there is no innovation in it as the orthodoxy claims nothing else page 1 of 3 1 2 3 next saving the planet is one of the harder jobs feel free to support test the reason contact privacy statement