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2012 january 18 iraq and gulf analysis iraq and gulf analysis home about archives august 2015 january 2015 december 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 november 2011 october 2011 september 2011 august 2011 july 2011 june 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 october 2010 september 2010 august 2010 july 2010 june 2010 may 2010 april 2010 march 2010 february 2010 january 2010 december 2009 november 2009 october 2009 september 2009 august 2009 july 2009 june 2009 may 2009 april 2009 march 2009 february 2009 january 2009 december 2008 november 2008 october 2008 september 2008 august 2008 july 2008 june 2008 may 2008 april 2008 march 2008 february 2008 january 2008 december 2007 november 2007 october 2007 september 2007 august 2007 july 2007 june 2007 may 2007 april 2007 march 2007 february 2007 january 2007 december 2006 november 2006 october 2006 september 2006 august 2006 july 2006 june 2006 may 2006 april 2006 march 2006 february 2006 january 2006 december 2005 november 2005 october 2005 august 2005 categories basra and southern regionalism 34 de baathification 11 federalism in sunni majority areas of iraq 14 federalism in the middle east 6 iranian influence in iraq 55 iraq regionalism general 27 iraq and soft partition 39 iraq international relations 5 iraq local elections 2013 21 iraq parliament membership 13 iraq parliamentary elections 2014 26 iraq s 2010 parliamentary election 175 iraqi constitutional issues 280 iraqi nationalism 95 kirkuk and disputed territories 47 oil in iraq 46 rule of law 2 sectarian master narrative 55 shiite sectarian federalism 16 uia dynamics 133 uncategorized 59 us policy in iraq leverage issues 67 meta create account log in entries feed comments feed wordpress com my latest book on amazon com from just world books available on amazon com twitter updates tweets by reidarvisser january 2012 m t w t f s s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 dec feb subscribe entries rss comments rss recent posts legality and constitutionality questions in iraq s reform push the federalism dimension in yemen s draft constitution federalism and decentralization in libya s constitutional proposals groundbreaking iraq supreme court ruling on the law on mp replacement after the rise of isis will iraq s shiites secede additional ministers approved for the iraq cabinet the controversial kurdish ministers in the new iraqi cabinet the iraqi parliament fails to approve new security ministers the iraqi parliament approves the abbadi cabinet haydar al abbadi is the new iraq pm candidate maliki the presidency and parliament in the iraq pm nomination battle pm nomination trouble in iraq iraq elects fuad masum as new president for the first time in iraq a large field of presidential candidates the iraqi parliament elects its new speakership archive for january 18th 2012 after one month of boycotting iraqiyya at a crossroads posted by reidar visser on wednesday 18 january 2012 19 27 it is exactly one month since the secular increasingly sunni backed iraqiyya coalition began boycotting the iraqi parliament followed by the withdrawal of its ministers from cabinet sessions it has been a dramatic month full of heated verbal exchanges with political opponents nonetheless it is high time that iraqiyya stands back and reflects on what exactly it has achieved so far in terms of practical results iraqiyya s actions have at least managed to put the subject of some kind of national conference on the agenda iraqiyya are hoping that such a conference will deal with the fulfilment of promises made by prime minister nuri al maliki during the process of government formation in november december 2010 but doubts remain about the exact agenda location and date of the conference more fundamentally speaking it is the unequivocally negative results of iraqiyya s boycott that stand out the boycott has clearly accelerated a trend of defections from the iraqiyya coalition by individual politicians and groups of politicians that are more interested in taking part within the system than in boycotting examples include prominent politicians from babel and nineveh the latter showing that this is a phenomenon that includes sunnis as well as shiites from iraqiyya the defectors are not necessarily openly pro maliki but they tend to agree with maliki on some issues including an aversion against the recent pro federal trend among some sunni politicians the net effect of all the defections from iraqiyya since early 2011 may be a loss of around 5 deputies so far that may not sound like a lot but every single defection does bring maliki closer to his dream of a so called political majority government so what are iraqiyya doing at this momentous juncture alas very few new ideas were presented by coalition leader ayyad allawi during his speech today in fact all three alternative ways forward proposed by allawi involve constitutional problems that have been debated before firstly the suggestion by allawi to have new elections under an interim government is unconstitutional this goes back to an idea which has consumed a ridiculous amount of energy both among iraqiyya leaders and the americans since 2009 to the effect that there could be some kind of neutral caretaker administration during the run up to elections unless the prime minister resigns or is voted out of office there is no such thing as a transitional caretaker government in the iraqi constitution period the legal status of the government remains exactly the same until a new government is formed additionally any call for early elections would of course reopen the stalemated debate about the composition of the iraqi elections commission and the electoral law probably ensuring that actual elections would not happen until 2013 at the earliest the second suggestion by allawi to have the dominant partner in the government the shiite national alliance change its prime minister i e sack maliki is also unconstitutional as long as he means changing the pm only as per the constitution once the pm is voted out of office the cabinet as a whole is considered resigned and it is the job of the president to identify the biggest bloc in parliament and charge its pm candidate with forming a new government constitutionally speaking then there can be no smooth and easy transition from maliki to whoever may be waiting in the wings allawi is probably thinking of adel abd al mahdi iran of ibrahim al jaafari thirdly the alternative of trying to enforce an implementation of the arbil agreement itself would also be unconstitutional as maliki has rightly reminded us lately things like the national council for high policies the idea of balance in the ministries of government and the re establishment of the presidency council are all unconstitutional one of the few specific points of the obscure arbil agreement that actually resonate with the constitution is the demand that bylaws for the cabinet be adopted in the current political climate early agreement on such a complex piece of legislation seems entirely unrealistic the real alternatives for iraqiyya seem very few at this point in time they may of course opt for the pro federal course as some have attempted but this might also end up with a bloody nose as well examples of sunni resistance towards federalism continue to manifest themselves and might well surge considerably if an actual referendum were to be held a far more realistic course of action would be to forget about most of the acrobatics of the arbil agreement and instead focus on something very basic the security ministries that are still run by acting ministers not confirmed by parliament the interior one being of course maliki himself although the constitution does not expressly deal with the question of acting ministers the idea of having ministers confirmed by the national assembly is so central to all variants of parliamentary democracy in the world that maliki would be in for severe international criticism if he should opt to continue with acting ministers indefinitely what iraqiyya could and should do is to make a deal with maliki on the security ministries that appeals to his desire to be in a dominant position vis à vis competing shiite islamist factions it is well known that the sadrists fadila and isci are all critical of some of maliki s nominees for the interior ministry what iraqiyya should do is to give maliki support for an interior minister that is unpopular with the other shiite factions in exchange for a defence minister acceptable to iraqiyya that could over time bring about the rapprochement that the arbil agreement will never be able to produce for iraqiyya the real alternative to rapprochement with maliki is none of the three options discussed by allawi today rather it is an inevitable process of internal disintegration eventually leading maliki to establish a more narrow governing coalition that will likely exclude many iraqiyya politicians entirely posted in iraq s 2010 parliamentary election iraqi constitutional issues 30 comments blog at wordpress com subscribe subscribed iraq and gulf analysis join 203 other subscribers sign me up already have a wordpress com account log in now privacy iraq and gulf analysis subscribe subscribed sign up log in report this content view site in reader manage subscriptions collapse this bar design a site like this with wordpress com get started