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2012 june 10 iraq and gulf analysis iraq and gulf analysis home about archives august 2015 january 2015 december 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 november 2011 october 2011 september 2011 august 2011 july 2011 june 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 october 2010 september 2010 august 2010 july 2010 june 2010 may 2010 april 2010 march 2010 february 2010 january 2010 december 2009 november 2009 october 2009 september 2009 august 2009 july 2009 june 2009 may 2009 april 2009 march 2009 february 2009 january 2009 december 2008 november 2008 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55 shiite sectarian federalism 16 uia dynamics 133 uncategorized 59 us policy in iraq leverage issues 67 meta create account log in entries feed comments feed wordpress com my latest book on amazon com from just world books available on amazon com twitter updates tweets by reidarvisser june 2012 m t w t f s s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 may jul subscribe entries rss comments rss recent posts legality and constitutionality questions in iraq s reform push the federalism dimension in yemen s draft constitution federalism and decentralization in libya s constitutional proposals groundbreaking iraq supreme court ruling on the law on mp replacement after the rise of isis will iraq s shiites secede additional ministers approved for the iraq cabinet the controversial kurdish ministers in the new iraqi cabinet the iraqi parliament fails to approve new security ministers the iraqi parliament approves the abbadi cabinet haydar al abbadi is the new iraq pm candidate maliki the presidency and parliament in the iraq pm nomination battle pm nomination trouble in iraq iraq elects fuad masum as new president for the first time in iraq a large field of presidential candidates the iraqi parliament elects its new speakership archive for june 10th 2012 just exactly how many iraqi mps are ready to vote out maliki posted by reidar visser on sunday 10 june 2012 16 54 late last night iraq s president jalal talabani broke his long silence on exactly what is going on with the request for a no confidence vote against the country s embattled premier nuri al maliki for a clarification talabani s latest announcement was relatively convoluted still there is now at least a few more pieces of information available firstly talabani is aware that the signature collection does not form part of the constitutional procedure for a presidential call for a no confidence vote good nonetheless he has apparently asked for the signatures in advance in some kind of intermediary gesture to the opposing camps his aim has probably been to establish whether there was basis for a no confidence vote to succeed in this more limited capacity as an opinion poll if you will the exercise is of course valid it also has some interest for predicting the likely outcome of a vote in parliament as said before though there are methodological issues here relating in particular to the difference between collecting written signatures via email and actually having people come and vote in the parliament chamber this aspect is salient given the overall low attendance level in the iraqi parliament additionally there is of course the question of whether talabani s office is up to the best standards in terms of analyzing this material the public statement erroneously refers to quorum nisab instead of an absolute majority as the required threshold they are both at 163 but no excuses for the confusion by the presidential guardian of the constitution we can only hope there are no more errors in the press release to the numbers reported by talabani then most wire services on saturday said only 160 mps had signed thus falling just short of the required 163 needed to unseat maliki but a fine reading of the presidential statement shows that is not necessarily the case instead talabani essentially gives us something of a mathematical equation 160 signatures from iraqiyya the kurdistan alliance the sadrists and independent mps were initially presented an unspecified number of signatures from the puk talabani s own kurdish party were subsequently added this must be more than 3 since at one point there were more than 163 signatures but less than 12 the total of puk mps in parliament assuming none had signed off in the initial batch of 160 subsequently 11 signatures were withdrawn and 2 were suspended taliq this is evidently so strange that even the arabic statement uses quotation marks the remaining total is less than 163 it should be noted that there is no word about falsification of signatures a subject which consumed a good deal of heated exchanges in the press last week let us for the sake of the argument assume that the unknown variable here the puk signatures were at their highest possible value i e 12 the total of puk representatives in the iraqi parliament that would leave us with a maximum of 160 12 11 2 signatures by people ready to vote down maliki i e 159 this is 4 less than the required threshold of 163 in line with conservative estimates presented earlier in the week and significantly lower than numbers reported by maliki critics ranging from 176 to 200 plus at the very maximum there may at one point have been 172 signatures according to the talabani statement add to this the fact that it is easier to make people sign via email than show up in parliament maliki lawyer tareq harb appears to have his own count arriving at 146 but apparently not counting the puk signatures that were added at one point the maliki critics who met again at erbil today have plenty to think about they are apparently considering a plan b consisting of the second route to a no confidence vote a questioning of the parliament called for by 25 deputies followed by a no confidence vote called for by 65 deputies this approach is not without its problems it takes longer the supreme court recently issued a very biased ruling limiting the right to question ministers it has received zero attention by the iraqi press but was almost certainly calculated to also apply to the eventuality of a prime ministerial no confidence vote and the support of president talabani and his kurdish puk party would not be a given in any case its proponents should now stop trying to convince the iraqi public about their number of signatures today iraqiyya leaders boast they have 10 more up the sleeve and there are even reports about another futile attempt to send one more letter to talabani to convince him instead if they truly want a vote they should simply begin making specific steps towards a questioning of maliki in parliament which begins with a request by 25 deputies to the parliament speaker usama al nujayfi of iraqiyya to summon maliki to the national assembly talabani does not rule out this second option of course indeed in calling for the national meeting the gathering of leaders sought by maliki instead of a no confidence vote he says this can be useful whether the premier is ousted or not maliki critics should however take notice how firmly talabani asserts his own right to appoint any replacement in line with article 76 of the constitution by which is it his job to identify the candidate of the biggest bloc in parliament if the shiite alliance breaks down as a result of a no confidence vote in maliki and the remnants fail to form alliances with iraqiyya and the kurds that might in theory well be maliki s own state of law bloc and its premier candidate maliki himself posted in iraq parliament membership iraqi constitutional 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