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description=4 posts published by Reidar Visser during January 2014;

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the, iraq, and, 2014, on, of, elections, new, iraqi, gulf, analysis, archive, for, january, archives, categories, meta, my, latest, book, amazon, com, twitter, updates, subscribe, recent, posts, ihec, list, coalitions, entities, in, parliament, commission, assigns, electoral, ticket, numbers, more, provinces, election, stunt, or, strategic, vision, local, government, cabinet, decides, to, form, three, governorates,

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the (270), and (73), iraq (43), for (42), that (42), new (33), iraqi (31), list (27), law (26), with (25), are (24), 2014 (24), #elections (20), governorates (19), provinces (19), #january (18), parliament (18), has (18), may (18), some (17), will (17), 2008 (17), there (16), shiite (16), have (15), been (15), this (14), nineveh (14), administrative (14), april (14), lists (14), cabinet (13), coalition (13), 2010 (13), 2013 (13), sunni (12), government (12), provincial (12), coalitions (12), 2006 (12), 2007 (12), 2009 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), governorate (11), more (11), these (11), parliamentary (11), all (11), february (11), march (11), august (11), changes (10), however (10), also (10), can (10), maliki (10), entities (10), they (10), numbers (10), but (10), their (10), october (10), december (10), now (9), not (9), boundaries (9), would (9), create (9), last (9), election (9), parties (9), november (9), june (9), july (9), september (9), like (8), posted (8), areas (8), number (8), such (8), run (8), state (8), which (8), falluja (8), kurdish (8), was (8), change (8), electoral (8), other (7), comments (7), from (7), turkmen (7), known (7), federal (7), basra (7), decision (7), regarding (7), candidate (7), pan (7), com (6), form (6), three (6), federalism (6), time (6), political (6), regions (6), today (6), seen (6), recent (6), itself (6), salahaddin (6), among (6), about (6), local (6), sectarian (6), secular (6), official (6), ihec (6), analysis (5), kirkuk (5), constitutional (5), does (5), plans (5), status (5), legal (5), right (5), powers (5), could (5), plains (5), what (5), those (5), article (5), whereas (5), any (5), after (5), 1969 (5), creation (5), part (5), process (5), kurds (5), commission (5), ticket (5), iraqiyya (5), year (5), main (5), wordpress (4), gulf (4), off (4), issues (4), regionalism (4), project (4), towards (4), clear (4), individual (4), long (4), between (4), few (4), who (4), claim (4), including (4), case (4), one (4), 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2008 february 2008 january 2008 december 2007 november 2007 october 2007 september 2007 august 2007 july 2007 june 2007 may 2007 april 2007 march 2007 february 2007 january 2007 december 2006 november 2006 october 2006 september 2006 august 2006 july 2006 june 2006 may 2006 april 2006 march 2006 february 2006 january 2006 december 2005 november 2005 october 2005 august 2005 categories basra and southern regionalism 34 de baathification 11 federalism in sunni majority areas of iraq 14 federalism in the middle east 6 iranian influence in iraq 55 iraq regionalism general 27 iraq and soft partition 39 iraq international relations 5 iraq local elections 2013 21 iraq parliament membership 13 iraq parliamentary elections 2014 26 iraq s 2010 parliamentary election 175 iraqi constitutional issues 280 iraqi nationalism 95 kirkuk and disputed territories 47 oil in iraq 46 rule of law 2 sectarian master narrative 55 shiite sectarian federalism 16 uia dynamics 133 uncategorized 59 us policy in iraq leverage issues 67 meta create account log in entries feed comments feed wordpress com my latest book on amazon com from just world books available on amazon com twitter updates tweets by reidarvisser january 2014 m t w t f s s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 dec feb subscribe entries rss comments rss recent posts legality and constitutionality questions in iraq s reform push the federalism dimension in yemen s draft constitution federalism and decentralization in libya s constitutional proposals groundbreaking iraq supreme court ruling on the law on mp replacement after the rise of isis will iraq s shiites secede additional ministers approved for the iraq cabinet the controversial kurdish ministers in the new iraqi cabinet the iraqi parliament fails to approve new security ministers the iraqi parliament approves the abbadi cabinet haydar al abbadi is the new iraq pm candidate maliki the presidency and parliament in the iraq pm nomination battle pm nomination trouble in iraq iraq elects fuad masum as new president for the first time in iraq a large field of presidential candidates the iraqi parliament elects its new speakership archive for january 2014 the ihec list of coalitions and entities in the 2014 iraq parliament elections posted by reidar visser on thursday 30 january 2014 21 32 following the lottery yesterday in which participants in the 30 april parliamentary elections were given ticket numbers the iraqi election commission has released an official list that also provides the first official overview of coalition and entities that will take part in the election it is noteworthy that although the deadline for forming coalitions expired late last year ihec has so far refrained from publishing a list of the constituent elements of the various coalitions one reason may be that the process of certification of entities continued well into 2014 with constant updates to the official list of individual entities this means that there is still no official source that can be used for evaluating the potential strength of the various coalitions but the most recent list is at least helpful in that it authoritatively distinguishes between coalitions and entities that will run on their own ending some of the speculation as regards the choices of some of the smaller parties the key statistics of the new list are as follows altogether 107 lists will take part in the 30 april parliamentary elections of these 36 will be coalitions a maximum of 71 entities will run on their own all the main coalitions are well known with respect to shiite islamists the following main groups are defined as coalitions state of law muwatin mainly isci ahrar sadrists islah jaafari and fadila with some lesser known smaller parties smaller coalitions include list 238 which is organized by sabah al saadi an ex fadila mp known for his ferocious verbal attacks on prime minister nuri al maliki there are also what seem to be pan shiite lists in some of the northern governorates with some uncertainty as to exactly who among the main shiite parties are enrolled in them this certainly applies to nineveh list 227 but also list 222 and or 249 salahadddin towards the secular end of the shiite spectrum there is a coalition list 228 headed by wail abd al latif a well known basra federalist regarding the controversial question of the participation of the sadrist breakaway now pro maliki group known as the league of the righteous some rumours suggest they will not run as a single list but rather enter as candidates on separate pro maliki lists analysis of this must await publication of the candidate lists as for the sunni and secular forces that formed iraqiyya in the last elections they are now split in at least three main coalitions mutahiddun nujayfi wataniya allawi and arabiyya mutlak noteworthy is the all iraqiyya list in diyala 246 which in this context smells something like a sunni sectarian equivalent of pan shiite lists seen in shiite minority areas in the local elections last year there is also a sunni secular list in kirkuk 242 calling itself the coalition of kirkuk arabs press reports claim nujayfi will run only in six governorates as list 259 in nineveh salahaddin baghdad and anbar on pan sunni lists in diyala and kirkuk if true this means nujayfi s party has given up some of the pan iraqi spirit seen in the last local elections when it also ran lists in some places in the south notably in basra the implication is inevitably a more sunni sectarian outlook rump iraqiyya in the shape of ayyad allawi s wataniyya list may be on the defensive if the last local elections are anything to go by and the only other remaining major pan iraqi secular coalition in the running is the alliance of communists and other minor secular groups 232 the main kurdish coalition list is apparently number 210 there is also a special kurdish list in baghdad 203 confusion remains regarding the exact structure of the kurdish electoral effort because unlike the other parties the kurds continue to list their individual parties as electoral lists alongside their coalition as for the parties that run individually they are mainly the smaller ones among them the sunni islamist islamic iraqi party stands out 263 the list is also helpful in ending some of the speculation regarding various shiite islamist parties whose coalition allegiances were in doubt the party of shirwan al waeli formerly with state of law is still listed separately 284 as are those of haytham al jibburi 230 and saad al mutallabi 240 conversely there are no signs of parties registered in the names of people like ali fayyad ali al dabbagh adnan al shahmani amir al fayiz basra shaykhis and abd al karim al muhammadawi aka lord of the marshes meaning they have likely opted out or have joined a coalition a fuller picture will emerge when candidate lists are ready in february march before that the potentially controversial process of candidate verification including de baathification measures will take place posted in iraq parliamentary elections 2014 comments off on the ihec list of coalitions and entities in the 2014 iraq parliament elections the iraq elections commission assigns electoral ticket numbers posted by reidar visser on wednesday 29 january 2014 11 26 the iraqi electoral commission ihec today held a lottery for electoral ticket numbers for the upcoming 30 april parliamentary elections although a rough picture of the coalition forming process has been in the public domain for some time the information released today provides the first official confirmation of the electoral alliances that have been approved for participation in the election following certification of individual entities towards the end of last year it should be noted that at the time of writing the complete and official list of approved coalitions itself had not been published by ihec and that the following discussion is based on reports about the election list numbers as reported by the iraqi press however the picture that emerges is consistent enough generally speaking it is a story of fragmentation in all political camps for example the idea of a pan shiite list has hardly been on the agenda this year instead all the major players run separately maliki s state of law list 277 hakim s muwatin 273 sadr s ahrar 214 fadila 219 and jaafari s islah 205 a possible caveat concerns the shiite minority governorates salahaddin nineveh diyala lists sounding like variations of the watani alliance of shiites in parliament appear in all these places and it could be pan shiite lists o n the pattern seen in last year s local election s confirmation of this must await release of the comprehensive ihec coalition list and possibly even the candidate lists themselves expected in february march similarly what was once the secular and increasingly sunni backed iraqiyya has now fragmented into a number of factions parliament speaker nujayfi s mutahhidun got list number 259 allawi s list now just called wataniyya or nationalism got number 239 the arab iraqiyya bloc of deputy pm mutlak got number 255 with regard to the kurds the situation is slightly confused because both political entity numbers and coalition numbers have been published of these there is little doubt that goran and the islamists will run separately but the rationale for publishing the entity numbers for kdp and puk alongside various coalition numbers is not clear again it is possibly better to await publication of the candidate lists to see what sort of alliances the kurds are running within the krg and in kurdish populated areas outside the krg respectively for the time being the information available is too sketchy to make very firm conclusions about the overall direction of the upcoming elections for example candidate lists are needed to determine whether all shiite parties are joining a common sectarian ticket in places like salahaddin and nineveh or whether just a few take part instead ongoing developments in the iraqi parliamentary debate may perhaps provide some clues firstly the recent announcements of new provinces in nineveh and salahaddin catering at least to some extent to shiite turkmen audiences could be a suggestion about a move towards a more sectarian electoral climate on the other hand attempts to create a parliamentary oversight committee to supervise the election commission itself have been spearheaded by sadrists and kurds with muwatin and state of law resisting and successfully defeating the motion whether the hakim maliki relationship is still salvageable remains to be seen but given the amount of fragmentation seen today it seems fairly clear that these elections are unlikely to produce a clear single winner we are thus left with a situation in which post election coalition building and maneuvering may prove as important for the final outcome as the elections themselves posted in iraq parliamentary elections 2014 uncategorized comments off on the iraq elections commission assigns electoral ticket numbers more on the new iraqi provinces election stunt or a strategic vision of local government posted by reidar visser on monday 27 january 2014 4 49 the surprise decision by the iraqi government last week to announce plans for altogether four new provinces has been met with mostly predictable reactions among iraqi politicians kurds are angry as are sunni arabs and particularly those of nineveh who will get most directly affected by the central government s plans to parcel out some of their territory to create new governorates conversely there has been jubilation in some of the minority communities affected by the plans turkmens shabak christians few know what the people of falluja the last area to become a projected province may think about the plans their problems are of a more immediate nature with dramatic estimates of the number of refugees having left the city because of the recent flare up in the conflict between the iraqi government and sympathizers of the islamic state of iraq and the levant at first it was tempting to assume that the reason behind the sudden declaration of new provinces related to the upcoming 30 april parliamentary elections with prime minister nuri al maliki possibly trying to win votes among shiite minorities and christians outside the shiite majority areas however interestingly a more elaborate justification for the scheme has now been presented suggesting there could be an attempt at grander strategic thinking behind the initiative after all tareq harb a close legal adviser to maliki has maintained that the move is aimed at pre empting the creation of more federal regions and the potential split up of iraq according to harb by weakening large governorates like basra and nineveh the prospect of them turning into federal regions lessens since the tiny rump governorate in each case would be a joke of a federal region among the potential new governorates enumerated by harb are rawa anbar balad and dujayl salahaddin both with shiite populations and qurna basra meanwhile the legal framework concerning the creation of such new governorates remains unclear it has not helped matters that the minister of state for the governorates torhan mufti himself a turkmen has declared that the provincial powers law of 2008 does give the central government a right to change provincial boundaries the same claim has been reiterated by a member of the parliament committee for the governorates but neither claim has been buttressed with a reference to a specific article of the provincial powers law it would be helpful if they or anyone else who knows could do so a cursory reading of the amended law of 2008 indicates a right of governorates to change their internal boundaries sub provinces in article 7 11 but where is the alleged corresponding right of parliament to change provincial boundaries one would have thought the us government which was influential in iraq at the time the provinces law was adopted in 2008 had analysed this problem however whereas an annotated version of the provincial powers law by usaid sounds promising it fails to produce the required clarity it seems to agree that there is no power for anyone to change provincial boundaries in the provinces law itself however it does refer to the 1969 law on provincial administration as an alleged basis for parliament to change borders there are several problems here footnote 32 of the american reports refers to a power of parliament to change provincial boundaries in law 159 of 1969 however article 4 of the 1969 law does not mention parliament at all instead it refers to the revolutionary command council even more importantly as the american report itself goes on to mention the 2008 law abrogated the 1969 law and hence took away any specific framework that may have existed in that piece of legislation for the central government to create new administrative entities few believe these...