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these roads there are bridges that cross various rivers and streams a number of these bridges can only support small loads and thus are likely to break if one drives a lot of vehicles over them in a short amount of time if you start driving on one of these roads you find yourself stuck for hours behind traffic a single motor vehicle accident or landslide or bridge collapse can shut down the road for hours or even days it is a very shaky picture as road transportation goes the pakistani army relies on air mobility to supplement critical road transport but it still has to transport the bulk of its supply by truck and that is quite expensive a liter of petrol costs way more in pakistani kashmir than it does in karachi neither azad kashmir nor gilgit baltistan are really known for possessing great mineral wealth there is a small robust tourism industry in these parts and small amounts of mining there are too few people there to really exploit this economic potential and a large fraction of the population is made up of expats from pakistani punjab sindh and khyber pakhtunwa the economy of pakistani kashmir is largely held in place by shipments of oil to pakistani military installations which create the necessary infrastructural pull to make it economically feasible to supply local populations there is a great ongoing discussion in pakistan that this region can be used to create massive hydroelectric power resources for the rest of pakistan but that has yet to make the huge impact it should sadly normally invading a mountainous region like this is senseless look at europe no one ever invades switzerland for the same reason but over the last thirty years there has been a slow and steady improvement in the regional infrastructure in part because of the saltoro war and the kargil war and this has enhanced the ability to do certain things so is an indian invasion of pok possible yes but there is more to think about lots more it is reasonable to ask why would india attack pok i can see only two likely reasons for india doing this 1 to punish the people of azad kashmir most of the people in pakistani kashmir live in the southern part from muzaffarabad down a number of these people are refugees from the indian side having been most affected by the ongoing tragedy of kashmir these populations have a deep hostility towards india and form a perennial source of manpower of groups like jaish e mohammed and lashkar e tayyaba those groups have killed a lot of indians any move to punish the people of azad kashmir to impose 10 000 kia hr death rates on them and end their will to fight india is likely to be extremely popular among modi worshipers 2 to snap the karakorum highway if there is anything modi haters and modi worshipers both dislike it is the manner in which china exploits pakistan s fight with india the karakorum highway kkh links pakistan to china and is a vital part of the china reach for the arabian sea most senior members of the indian national security establishment openly take a negative view of the kkh and the debt obligations imposed on pakistan by the china pakistan economic cooperation agreement cpec they seem to think that pakistan will never repay this debt and india will have to indirectly pay it so they would much prefer it if this kkh and cpec were brought to an abrupt end in the next blog post i will discuss the technical challenges associated with proceeding towards the aforementioned objectives with military options no surprise that i am a huge supporter of that idea i have always supported the idea of a prosperous and confident pakistan and this is a much better use of pakistani kashmir than the previous use popular in the last thirty years i e a laboratory for crazy jihadi ideas posted by maverick 5 07 am 0 comments monday june 17 2019 climate change and security i have decided to speak to this issue in the broadest possible sense scientists barring a tiny minority are pretty certain that anthropogenic climate change is happening while many the carbon energy mafia intends to resist a shift away from using fossil fuels we the people of earth will eventually pay the price of this phenomenal stupidity long before we drown in the rising waters from molten polar ice caps or burn up as global temperatures spike a myriad variety of security threats will emerge a peculiar aspect of anthropogenic climate change is that it is not reversible on the scale we might think it has taken us a hundred years to get here and even if we were to stop fossil fuel utilization today it would not mean that warming would stop 1 cutting fossil fuel use helps but not as much as one would think 2 and the mere act of curtailing fossil fuel use is fraught with complications there is no clarity on whether the debt created in the changeover is serviceable at all with that in the background we need to accept that certain realities and restructure our national security frameworks to accommodate these realities the realities i refer to above are as follows 0 we may not be able to reduce emissions enough by 2030 to keep the global temperatures below 1 5c and the excursions from the mean temperature will likely grow in the foreseeable future 1 abrupt climate change may not be avoidable this contrasts with the latest ipcc assessment that it is not presently considered a low likelihood event this kind of event represents a catastrophic risk no amount of resources set aside for mitigation will be enough there is no response modality that is sufficient an abrupt climate change situation will most likely be an extinction level event 2 climate change driven dynamics will present itself in unpredictable ways there is a relatively small fraction weather patterns where we have some predictive power where possible we may be able to leverage this into a real world prediction of where to deploy mitigation resources but in all probability the prediction will be crap we will be hit by extreme climate events in places we are least prepared to cope with in the face of these realities there will be certain social and political consequences a there has always been a class divide in human society this will unfortunately hold true for climate information as well a social ordering will develop based on the foreknowledge of imminent climate events the haves will possess the knowledge and be better positioned to handle the consequences than the have nots who will essentially pay for their ignorance with their lives b among the haves there will always be too factions the first that seeks to preserve the exclusivity of their club and the second that seeks to spread the knowledge and expand the club c the have nots will also have two factions one which accepts the massive reduction in their life expectancy and the second which does not and fights to establish a more equitable distribution of knowledge no prizes for guessing which faction i belong to having put all that out there we have what it takes to flesh out emergent national security threats or perhaps i should call them what they are global security threats post globalization national security seems like a poor framework to capture events that clearly span the planet i mean even those anti globalization nationalism movements are acting in concert and building a global alliance so yeah a quick list of the major global security threats in order of priority 1 a millenarist cult that seeks to precipitate a climate apocalypse and ensure that only its chosen ones survive 2 a cabal of haves that obsesses about loss of primacy in global affairs and triggers obscure conflicts in the hope of keeping the have nots preoccupied 3 a disorganized have not led resistance which seeks to coerce the haves into sharing information 4 a pervasive apathy by the first faction of the have nots which makes meaningful resolution of climate mitigation issues impossible i hope to discuss each of these four threats in some detail in upcoming posts apologies in advance for the delays and typos it is a lot of thinking and it is difficult to get it all down in a concise text posted by maverick 7 39 am 0 comments wednesday june 05 2019 food insecurity and political stability political systems are often anchored to key economic flows for example in the medieval period feudals earned their keep by ensuring a steady flow of agricultural taxes the extent of food commodities recovered from taxation effectively capped their ability to access strategic metals fabrics and ceramics those caps in turn kept the size of the feudal s army in check and that led to obvious limits on the size of the fief etc if there was a drought and the feudal did not possess enough reserve to keep the famine small i e as situation where commodity prices are extremely unstable or worse still farmers are too hungry to farm the feudal was kicked out of power in this fashion the productivity of the land determined the half life of the local feudal order in our modern world a variant of the same phenomena is at work i say productivity of the land but more correctly it should be the apparent or perceived productivity of the land this is because productivity is at its core a psychological construct i have to believe feel that the effort i am putting into the doing this activity is going to yield a large bounty in the future this is a very big part of agro economics as it takes time for the crops to grow the herds to grow etc there is no instant gratification there is a flip side to this if the land grows things i do not want cannot eat i feel it is not productive if i fear i will not be able to eat my next meal per my choices i become what the us agro economists called food insecure at one extreme food insecurity relates to the physical availability of food but in another extreme it relates to the perception of the loss of a part of my preferred diet and any ensuing loss of status a very good example of this is the attitude of midwestern white men towards beef having grown up in a culture of farming which sarah taber refers to a farming cosplay beef is seen as the ultimate symbol of the productivity of the land to be able to afford beef on the table is a big deal it is correlated the status in society to wealth the number of women you can put in your bed at any given time etc hence trump steaks was a status symbol never meant to be successful as a product but meant to show that trump was a guy who could afford big steaks i am not saying that the thickness of the steak you eat is thickness of you penis but yeah it is just like the thickness of your penis this why mere talk of vegan ideas bring forth a very derisive response from this demographic losing access to beef is losing status in society this is not unique to the us on a global scale it is observed that richer nations eat more meat meat eating correlates with wealth now think about india india does not have enough land to allows free grazing like the us or australia here meat is a luxury even more tied to status populations that live along the peninsula have a diet that emphasizes eggs and seafood this is also india s most productive belt economically having benefited from participation in the sea borne trade the result is a deep sense of economic security tradition and culture surrounding eating meat now you take a population like that and you impose vegetarianism on them either by indirectly taxing the trade in meat eg cow slaughter or by directly imposing dietary bounds on any free meals you supply such as the approach of the akshaya patra foundation what would be the result of this the consequence will be a deep sense of food insecurity this is because food insecurity is a metric that captures the psychological factors associated with the fear of the loss of a food source and how will that be different from a situation in medieval india where a drought has wiped out the land okay there is still food on the plate but when your culture ethnic identification etc are deeply tied to your diet will not food insecurity bleed over into political insecurity and what if the people of these states already fear loss of political representation due to demographic shifts or the linguistic hegemony and what will be the outcome for a political formulation which is already so inefficient where the rs vote is at least 10x higher than it s peer competitor will there be political stability sure the left rules wb with a similar structure in place for decades but is that sustainable at scale or will one see the kind of dynamics one saw in soviet union where brutal subterranean battles raged while the general secretary ruled largely at the pleasure of a highly militarized siloviki they say amit shah will become pm i welcome it i like him more than i like modi or yogi or other incompetents also please forget about art 370 removal it is more important to focus on crafting a new art 370 framework for southern states otherwise when the redistribution of ls seats occurs the peninsular states will simply secede from the republic being a brahmin myself i am extremely reluctant to criticize akshaya patra foundation as it is one of the few brahmin organizations that are actually doing socially productive work but i feel compelled to say something because of the possibility that its efforts may be perceived as negative and the ensuing social opprobrium will derail a vital effort posted by maverick 6 58 am 2 comments monday june 03 2019 shift in national security priorities after reviewing data emerging after the recent election in india i am reasonably convinced that a shift in national security priorities is necessary heretofore national security priorities in india centered on the notion that india was an agrarian economy that needed to transition to an industrial economy that self sufficient in critical resources this transition needed the development of high intensity energy resources i e the kind that could power the machines used in new industrial economy in order to build enough of those energy resources one needed to build a capital reserve and ensure access to fossil and nuclear fuel supplies that could keep the energy conversion machines running to that end whatever was needed was to be done if that meant turning the youth of an entire state into slaves in a foreign land that accepted payment in rupees for oil then so be it if that meant getting in bed with a dictator who wanted rotting rice in exchange for oil then so be it gandhiji needed enough oil for one kerosene lamp lighting a billion lamps would require making realistic compromises or so it was said a critical aspect of that older way of thinking was that the energy resources needed for india s transformation were physically quite large this large estimate captured the inefficient nature of resource utilization a greater portion of the inefficiency was the lack of actionable information if there was a better way to do things the people in charge of making the executive decisions were...