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edge on semiconductors and artificial intelligence from leaking to china escalating tensions with the u s are one reason for the decline in foreign investment in a survey taken last fall by the american chamber of commerce in the people s republic of china 66 of member respondents cited rising bilateral tensions as a business challenge in china in august the u s announced tighter restrictions on chip and artificial intelligence investment in china washington is coordinating with beijing ahead of a summit meeting between presidents joe biden and xi jinping in november but the u s remains committed to technology restrictions in the name of economic security looking at foreign investment in the semiconductor field by destination china s share has already shrunk from 48 in 2018 to 1 in 2022 according to u s research firm rhodium group in contrast the u s share rose from zero to 37 the combined share of india singapore and malaysia grew from 10 to 38 however american chip and ai concerns obviously do not make up all potential sources of fdi to china it is here where a decidedly unfriendly foreign investment policy climate factors in you name it from corporate espionage to various forms of harassment of overseas businesses under dubious pretenses today s prc leadership does not think much of how others perceive these actions meant to promote domestic industry at the expense of foreign concerns europeans for instance cite only cosmetic efforts to improve prospects for fdi beijing has been seeking to reverse capital outflows in the face of mounting economic challenges but such efforts appear to have failed to assure investors the china international import expo ciie an annual event launched by president xi jinping in 2018 to portray china as an open market and improve its trade ties kicked off on sunday but the european union chamber of commerce in china criticized the event last week as a showcase european businesses are becoming disillusioned as symbolic gestures take the place of tangible results needed to restore business confidence the chamber said in a friday statement the ciie was originally intended as a showcase of china s opening up and reform agenda but it has proven to be largely smoke and mirrors so far carlo d andrea vice president of the chamber said in the statement having done nearly everything possible to discourage fdi is it any wonder it s leaving china read more chinese migrants at us border prc s dire straits posted by emmanuel in china migration at 10 30 2023 02 00 00 pm the blog s first ai image c o bing draw a chinese person walking through a panamanian jungle a usually good indicator of an underwhelming economy is of a country s citizens departing it for greener pastures the year is 2023 not 1882 when the us passed the chinese exclusion act to stop a massive influx of chinese immigrants moreover isn t the 21st century supposed to have been the asian century according to some prognosticators my belief is that policy missteps by xi jinping have greatly dented the forward momentum of china in recent decades recently exacerbated by endless lockdowns during the covid 19 pandemic at any rate you may be surprised that the prc not some latin american country now ranks fourth in sending folks across the darién gap linking south and central america with hopes of entering the united states from the associated press chinese people were the fourth highest nationality after venezuelans ecuadorians and haitians crossing the darién gap during the first nine months of this year according to panamanian immigration authorities chinese asylum seekers who spoke to the associated press as well as observers say they are seeking to escape an increasingly repressive political climate and bleak economic prospects they also reflect a broader presence of migrants at the u s mexico border asians south americans and africans who made september the second highest month of illegal crossings and the u s government s 2023 budget year the second highest on record as bad as things may be stateside let s say they are decidedly worse in china where you certainly aren t free in a conventional sense the pandemic and china s covid 19 policies which included tight border controls temporarily stemmed the exodus that rose dramatically in 2018 when president xi jinping amended the constitution to scrap the presidential term limit now emigration has resumed with china s economy struggling to rebound and youth unemployment high the united nations has projected china will lose 310 000 people through emigration this year compared with 120 000 in 2012 this wave of emigration reflects despair toward china cai xia editor in chief of the online commentary site of yibao and a former professor at the central party school of the chinese communist party in beijing they ve lost hope for the future of the country said cai who now lives in the u s you see among them the educated and the uneducated white collar workers as well as small business owners and those from well off families those who can t get a visa are finding other ways to flee the world s most populous nation many are showing up at the u s mexico border to seek asylum the border patrol made 22 187 arrests of chinese for crossing the border illegally from mexico from january through september nearly 13 times the same period in 2022 arrests peaked at 4 010 in september up 70 from august the vast majority were single adults a common route involves landing in ecuador and then continuing northward to reach the border the popular route to the u s is through ecuador which has no visa requirements for chinese nationals migrants from china join latin americans there to trek north through the once impenetrable darién and across several central american countries before reaching the u s border the journey is well known enough it has its own name in chinese walk the line or zouxian the monthly number of chinese migrants crossing the darién has been rising gradually from 913 in january to 2 588 in september for the first nine months of this year panamanian immigration authorities registered 15 567 chinese citizens crossing the darién by comparison 2 005 chinese people trekked through the rainforest in 2022 and just 376 in total from 2010 to 2021 if there is something that will shame the prc into adopting sensible economic policies that benefit its general population then its citizens fleeing china for distant america en masse during its supposed renaissance should be it in the final analysis the folks who ve made china uninvestable are the prc s leaders and not some malign foreign influence these leaders like to blame the fruits of xi jinpingism are plain to see at the us mexico border read more germans brand thee usa an esg disaster posted by emmanuel in americana at 6 06 2023 11 43 00 am just one flagrant american esg violation among countless others this news story from bloomberg had me laffing so hard it hurt despite the action being rather novel banning investment in us treasuries over environmental social and governance esg grounds it is undoubtedly true that america is an esg disaster offhand we can cite endless esg offenses that the us has perpetuated on its citizens and the rest of the world among others environmental being the world s second largest carbon emitter and historically speaking by far the world s largest social maintaining a persistent racial underclass of nearly half of blacks who have experienced inter generational poverty despite accounting for less than 15 of the overall population governance inflicting far more gun deaths annually than any other country by allowing largely unfettered sale and ownership of military style weapons now it is not news to anyone that the us is a super polluting racialized and hyper violent nation however it is news when others like the german state of baden württemberg start calling a spade a spade and put their money where their mouth is at that s because the new environmental social and good governance filters have resulted in us treasuries ending up on an investing blacklist due to america s failure to ratify a number of treaties in areas including women s rights and controversial weapons the bulk of baden württemberg s exclusions impact its equity and corporate bond portfolios the law establishes the united nations sustainable development goals the european union s taxonomy regulation and the paris agreement on climate change as the basis for future investment decisions lest you think it s just one german state objecting to america inc there are others back in germany meanwhile other states have taken similar steps baden württemberg the only one of germany s 16 states with a coalition government led by the greens was inspired by a similar law in the smaller state of schleswig holstein where bans apply to us treasuries as well as to fossil fuel companies and the pension funds of brandenburg hesse and germany s richest state north rhine westphalia are this year allocating as much as 11 billion to paris aligned stock indexes that exclude esg laggards alongside baden württemberg while i do not doubt the sincerity of these actions i am not convinced that what international esg related treaties a country has ratified should constitute the basis for assigning esg ratings to sovereign debt solability for instance has a global sustainable competitiveness index gsci that takes into account a number of indicators similar to conventional bond credit ratings ah well i guess it s the thought that counts for these germans read more a problem of unstressful us bank stress tests posted by emmanuel in americana europe at 5 04 2023 04 35 00 pm each day brings news of a distressed us bank about to take leave for the great central bank in the sky aren t us banks supposed to be safer now with the advent of greater macroprudential regulation a common way to gauge the soundness of banks is through the use of stress tests that simulate how these financial institutions would fare in the wake of financial well stress while americans bicker about whether the 2019 loophole exempting midsize banks holding between 100 to 250 billion in assets from stress testing led to their currently precarious situation even that may not have saved them comparatively speaking stress tests conducted stateside may not be sufficiently rigorous in simulating scenarios that are detrimental to financial sustainability it is fairly obvious that the higher rates we have these days are causing mismatches between what banks earn and what they must pay out oddly however recent us stress tests have not involved rising but rather falling interest rates see the illustration above and commentary from the peterson institute but it s not only for 2023 that this feature appears indeed every severely adverse scenario used by the fed since 2015 has the 3 month treasury bill rate ending up at 0 1 percent many historic episodes of severe economic downturn have indeed been accompanied by low interest rates as the fed used its policy tools to support aggregate demand but it is a bit strange that not since 2015 has a stress test involved rising interest rates one of the advantages of stress testing the banks every year is that their robustness to a variety of contrasting stresses can be assessed just repeating a broadly similar scenario year after year misses the opportunity to provide supervisors with potentially important information on vulnerabilities it can also result in policymakers assuming that the banks are robust to more types of shock than is really the case yet pointlessly repeating a broadly similar scenario each year is exactly what the fed has been doing as we can show here have other regulatory authorities been administering stress tests as lax and unrealistic as american ones thankfully for the rest of the world the answer is no the european central bank and remember that switzerland is not an ecb member for those thinking of a certain defunct bank has done its homework by simulating interest rate rises just as we are experiencing now overall our ecb analysis shows that the euro area banking sector would remain broadly resilient to a variety of interest rate shocks that would hold also under a baseline scenario of an economic slowdown in 2023 with the risk of a shallow recession such as the scenario included in the december 2022 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections profitability would increase overall driven by higher net interest income however provisions would also increase reflecting potential difficulties for borrowers results for the overall impact on solvency remain on average fairly muted with great heterogeneity across banks within and across different business models the same hold true for australian banks down under their stress tests have likewise gamed out the implications of higher interest rates higher inflation and higher interest rates could lead to larger credit losses despite continued albeit slower economic growth the stress testing model can provide insights into the magnitude of potential credit losses and how important they could be for the capital positions of large and mid sized banks the model applies two principal stresses to examine the resilience of the banking system to higher inflation and interest rates higher inflation and higher interest rates on mortgages squeeze households real incomes making it more difficult to service debt which could lead to more defaults and larger credit losses for banks similarly higher input costs and higher interest rates passed onto business loans can make it more difficult for businesses to service their debts potentially leading to higher default rates see chapter 2 household and business finances in australia higher interest rates typically reduce the prices of housing and commercial property that are held as collateral by banks against their loans which increases lgds as well as pds on loans having conducted these sorts of tests well before 2023 australian banks look to be on firming footing while we hope that contagion does not spread to the eurozone and the land down under it certainly bears questioning why us stress tests did not involve scenarios involving deteriorating financial conditions due to sustained central bank rate rises in the face of persistently elevated inflation while the subject matter can come across as esoteric such things do impact joe average since taxpayers will ultimately foot the bill for cleaning up the mess caused by unstressful stress tests giving false comfort to financial authorities about the soundness of banks they regulate update 1 also see krishna guha s commentary in the ft he warns that while the ecb did conduct asset side stress tests e g holding low yielding securities it did not test how vulnerable eurozone banks were to depositor flight like what has happened stateside that said european depositors tend not to move their money around update 2 former federal deposit insurance corporatio...