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ury debt to infinity by lending they stand to make the interest owed them by the treasury still this process of monetizing the debt has already driven away foreign purchasers of our debt how soon before they demand more interest to lend to us maybe the plan is to let the federal reserve replace other purchasers of our debt this might keep treasury prices higher than they d otherwise be yet as the total amount of federal debt mounts the credit quality we can offer and the value of our money itself will decline a sovereign debt downgrade may offer us the impetus to change our ways yet if borrowing gets more expensive a contraction of spending will occur the economy will tank as government spending shrinks in response to much needed austerity measures not too different from what we re now seeing in greece i saw one estimate that put the total amount of government spending cut by the greeks if it were an economy the size of ours at some 800bn already with an additional austerity package up for debate which would cut some 400 billion more could we stomach such a cut tackling our fiscal irresponsibility now involves understanding the impact of so much debt on our currency the value of our money itself this link is vital because it will become increasingly difficult to protect our assets denominated in dollars they will decline in true worth even if they look better on paper few americans are really capable of understanding this impact the suffering will fall disporportionally on the poor and working classes wealthier people meanwhile will enjoy the benefit of higher interest rates which will try to stem the inflationary tide unfortunately cutting wages or even spending won t do enough to keep inflation in check as it is we re suffering an unemployment rate that s probably cut average salaries dramatically if the government is willing to count these things accurately we do know average wages are flat since 1980 and we also know the vast majority of increases in income since the last acknowledged recession have gone to the corporations and wealthy speaking of predictions i called the market top a few months ago and the performance of the dow has been sideways excepting the last week or so s performance which saw the major indexes going higher i don t give investment advice in this blog so i can t brag about my silver advocacy a few years ago or my more recent fairly accurate sideways prediction on the stock market there are valid reasons not to advise people about their wealth that go beyond misleading them i do my best to bury anything remotely considered giving advice for two reasons first i m wise enough to know i don t know enough to make highly accurate predictions second making big bets on specific investments violates the doctrine of diversification better the tortoise than the hare better a balanced approach to one that bets too heavily on one truism whatever its validity for instance if one were to think that the very expensive process of unifying germany in 1990 1 would have been sufficient to devalue the german currency the deutschemark one would have guessed wrong the deutschemark rose in anticipation of the medium term trend towards a much bigger and stronger germany personal experience matters those of us who experienced the dotcom boom and bust around 2000 2001 have since gained the benefit of experience in controlling impulsive stock buying urges like lemmings humans tend to imitate each other and chase hot stocks and high returns then just as eagerly panic sell into the inevitable correction for a private client i tracked mutual fund sales through that period and saw that investors got out about six weeks to nine months after fund performance declined the time difference was attributable to the delay in reporting results typically expressed in quarterly statements once a sector tanks the funds are forced to sell to meet redemptions a deep seated structural problem for mutual funds that can add to whatever losses the fund is experiencing not to predict or anything i m anticipating a major market correction one we know will be coming it s not if but rather when the correction comes that is the question regrettably i can t say to get out now because the opportunities of the market lie to some degree in weathering these storms the secret we can t predict when and therefore can t shun the market so i guess rather than serve to warn my advice services the crucial need to keep your money working as hard as possible with interest rates on savings at zero there s no way to come out ahead of inflation inflation i d read could be calculated as high as 10 if the same measuring criteria were used now as were used under fed chairman volcker in the seventies and early eighties it doesn t take a genius to know an inflation rate of 4 give or take where we could easily be today requires a rate of return of 4 to stay even one important caveat to take into consideration with governmental statistics is its propensity to avoid paying out as much as it has to recipients of social security benefits the so called cola cost of living adjustment similarly one wonders if fedgov would acknowledge inflation if it meant it had to pay out more on its tips treasury inflation protected security bonds which pay a rate of return determined by the government s statistics correction i d previously estimated the cost of servicing our nation s national debt at 300 billion in previous post i just learned that the total cost was over 400 billion in 2010 that number is based on a rate of return of about 3 on holders of our government s debt future interest payments on our debt means a bigger percentage of our spending pie must go to service the debt now if inflation infiltrates the system governmental tax receipts will grow then again everything i mean everything that government spends money on will grow more costly rising labor costs have been a large component of inflation and so government would be expected to pay more to attract and retain workers already the average federal employee makes twice as much as the average private sector employee according to the usa today link below i doubt federal expenditures could shrink in that environment the nastiest impact of inflation is of course the impact of rising costs try as it might to doctor the stats fedgov can t deny the epic increases in the cost of medical care for instance there is one advantage to higher outlays the cost of servicing the debt might grow in nominal terms but not as a percentage of total spending if fedgov can increase its tax receipts it could glaze over inflation s nasty impact on the cost of borrowing a consequence of interest rates rising in an effort to combat inflation increases in medicare and medicaid expenses will be compounded by demographics one of those hard limits i talk about here no matter how self important washington may think itself it can t hide from the demographic trend therefore budget realists have turned to ways to shrink the cost of health care outlays there a mostly gop led effort to cut spending has been met by inevitable political resistance i d hesitate to call the democratic resistance to cuts in entitlement spending a hard limit as the gop has been able to push through controversial legislation despite democratic resistance particularly under terror war doctrines and the effort to purge america of certain inalienable rights like that to privacy and against unreasonable searches and seizures first diminished by the drug war as george carlin said they ain t rights if they can be taken away wherever the legal reality sits the direction of the fedgov is towards more not less intervention in the lives of its citizens alongside the accumulation of too much debt we re in an where perception is reality though which makes it easy for politicians to play on the general sense of denial among americans political reality is shaped not by these budget realities but rather the idea of self interest the classic tea party poster saying government hands off my medicare comes to mind political parties can be compromised we saw it with the tea party as i said when they went under the gop tent apparently to change it they ended up being compromised by hardcore social conservatives long the bane of the free thinking libertarian left gingrich bauchman and palin began speaking to tea party rallies claiming to be one of them real reform minded headed for the door relegated to chat rooms and lonely blogs far outside the mainstream so political movements are bound to compromise and even if they experience some levelof success they are bound to be co opted as i predicted once those who claimed to being tea partiers made it to washington the capital would corrupt them nonetheless the speed of mark rubio of florida s conversion from tea partier to establishment insider astounded me then again he had a glowing example of pre post election duplicity in our president so politics can t be a real hard limit to the expansion of american empire laws can be but we saw that laws can be perverted by legislative bodies who either offer loopholes in exchange for the right campaign contributor or spew so many laws governing so many aspects of our lives that their enforceability comes into question the law is only as good as its ability to be followed which is a function of its utility and viability it s not the laws themselves that pose the threat to freedom but rather the corrupt politicians who service the interest groups pacs and corporate lobbyists who dominate the washington establishment as teh obama and rubio examples show most politicians aspire to join the clique permanently and enshroud themselves in the many benefits of a system of cronyism and exclusivity in a system largely devoid of any sense of moral virtue capitals are always the centers of empires and reflect the attitudes of the empire s elite our empire is no different from others in history despite the rabid exceptionalism that haunts our nation typically manifesting itself in extremist views on militarism and patriotism all empires believed themselves immune from hard limits it s of course the hard limits that doom them in our case we ve been borrowing too much a hard limit and we have a rapidly aging demographic and the most politically active one demanding government services the absence of integrity in the capital and the lack of turnover has let the legal limits on imperial authority wane without new politicians able to keep their campaign promises our leadership serves itself its time horizon never exceeds ore than two four or six years the amount of time before the incumbent has to face their next election the republicans have been holding the budget hostage using the august deadline to force accountability on a system that they created during the bush years spending exploded yet now we re to believe the republicans are the party of fiscal discipline if there s a hard limit in the ultra tolerant receptivity of the generally naive american public surely it must be tested by claims of fiscal responsibility by those responsible for the greatest overspending of any empire in history perhaps the unreality of all these wars and gross mismanagement of the public s finances has spawned other non realities other anomalies in time and reason under the harsh light of fiscal limits these minor indiscretions have morphed into outright lies so entrenched and thick they ve formed the underpinning of the relationship of fedgov to those it governs the new fabric of lies advances the fringe of fiscal lunacy as sound reason fiscal brinkmanship threatens our ability to pay our bills but our money has been under attack for some time the establishment has concluded it can create its own money machine in the form of quantitative easing which is really a process wherein the government s debt is purchased in growing quantities by financial entities who know the original principal lent will never be repaid in entirety what i called a de facto interest only loan in my last post diary i advanced the hypothesis that hyperinflation could come here if the american people remain as ignorant about financial issues and as uninvolved politically as they ve been the fiscal deterioration will be utter and irrevocable rather than see the coming financial crisis as a single event an isolated spot on a timeline like history class i d look at it more like a slow motion train wreck damage will not be uniform across all sectors of the economy some may recover and grow while other languish indefinitely manufacturing springs to mind i saw a good special on cnbc about china and its predominant role in exports and the future of global manufacturing the indication is that china will continue to take jobs away from developed economies absent any turn away from free trade the manufacturing sector here will be decimated much to the glee of the anti union neoliberals who run economic policies in washington already we see the financial sector and service economies being promoted as replacements we all know service economy jobs aren t enough to pay the bills and if you believe they are please pleeeaaasse get out more here in the fly over reaches of the heartland we re still in a severe recession to the point people come by looking for work just to meet their bills many of these people held factory jobs and were displaced by a lack of forethought as to the impact of nafta which did eliminate most of the american manufacturing sector many libertarians are advocates of free trade but i don t think they know walmart is owned chiefly by the chinese government not exactly a poster child for individual rights and liberty they claim to be protecting likewise i don t think 200 month sweat shop labor can be considered a victory in the advancement of individual economic success instead we now see in america a crass consumerist lifestyle one which depends not on hard work and saving but on borrowing the mantra of spend more has led to an entitlement culture one in which people demand that government provide for them an unsustainable nanny state hardly the model independent minded people should endeavor to attain the ideals of the founders are gone forever the idea that we can have our own space and freedom at the same time is no longer viable under the current government we can see the impact of rampant consumerism on our climate from fossil fuels burning in combustion engines too much co2 is being released into our atmosphere we don t know definitively what portion of climate change is attributable to man made emissions but it s undeniable our climate is changing storms are stronger droughts persist hurricanes worsen the libertarian paradise has become a paradox one where the rights of the individual need to be subordinated to those of the collective if people aren t willing to learn more about how they can prosper and assume all responsibility for their future there s no o...