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Text of the page (random words):
ents may help clarify the picture somewhat 3 month averages of lower troposphere temperature variances and inverted soi while the atmospheric parts per million of co2 have continually increased during recent decades atmospheric temperatures have risen and fallen uninfluenced by any notions that some people may have about the powers of co2 atmospheric temperatures respond to realities not myths as for the amount of the increase of atmospheric co2 from 2002 to 2003 it was approximately two and one half parts per million 2 54 1000000 00 to be more precise here is a graphic summary of the annual increases since 1960 as he did in march miceal o ronain has provided in both tabular and graphical forms nice compilations of year to year differences of monthly and annual averages of mauna loa co2 measurements solar activity and terrestrial climate 28 july 04 updated 30 july 04 on july 6 2004 a bbc article headlined sunspots reaching 1000 year high caught the attention of a number of readers related articles soon appeared in other publications for example suspot activity hits 1000 year high at swissinfo org the truth about global warming it s the sun that s to blame at the london telegraph and hotter burning sun warming the planet at the washington times it seems that at a conference of astronomers in hamburg germany sami solanki and colleagues presented a discussion of possible correlations between solar variability and terrestrial climate the recent articles provide some clues to the content of the presentation but a slightly closer look may be of interest interestingly enough the principal paper on which the presentation was based was published last year and briefly discussed here by john daly at evidence for an unusually active sun an abstract of the paper is available at millennium scale sunspot number reconstruction evidence for an unusually active sun since the 1940s the paper is available in pdf form at i g usoskin s solanki m schuessler k mursula k alanko a millennium scale sunspot number reconstruction evidence for an unusually active sun since the 1940 s phys rev lett 91 21 211101 2003 hereinafter usoskin et al 2003 of several closely related papers i will mention i g usoskin k mursula s solanki m schuessler and k alanko reconstruction of solar activity for the last millennium using 10be data astron astrophys 413 745 751 2004 hereinafter usoskin et al 2004 using records of 10be beryllium 10 concentration in polar ice and some physical models for processes connecting 10be concentration with sunspot numbers the authors attempt to reconstruct average sunspot numbers for the period from the year 850 to the present their reconstruction indicates that the period of high solar activity during the last 60 years is unique throughout the past 1150 years the 10be records they use include annual data from greenland for the years 1424 to 1985 and eight year sampled data from antarctica for the years 850 to 1900 they supplement those data with some 14c carbon 14 data apparently for most of the period of the study and with group sunspot numbers gsn from 1610 on while their methodology has its problems they claim it results in a better correlation of 11 year smoothed reconstructed sunspot numbers with historical gsn than a statistical regression would do and they summarize their results in a graph that includes indicators of mm medieval maximum om oort minimum wm wolf minimum sm spörer minimum mm maunder minimum and dm dalton minimum it also includes estimated corrections of their calculated sunspot numbers in the solid red and green lines figure 2 from usoskin et al 2003 you can readily notice various differences between their greenland and antarctic results as well as between either of those and gsn particularly during the maunder minimum these and some other difficulties are briefly discussed in usoskin et al 2003 of the presentation in hamburg there is available a file of slides solar activity over the last 1150 years does it correlate with climate among those slides is the above graph as well as several other graphs not included in usoskin et al 2003 among the latter are two on a slide labelled comparison sunspot number climate the next slide from the presentation offers i would guess that the trend that correlates at 0 7 0 8 level is somehow related to the very smooth lines that run through each of those two graphs including the sunspot lines that continue climbing right through the maunder minimum if their models cannot get more realistic about a phenomenon such as the maunder minimum they would seem to need much more work before asking people to take their climate correlations seriously i suspect that one can find a variety of statistical trends that appear to correlate incidental aspects of phenomena as displayed in the presentation the proffered trend seems to me to be a distraction from identifying correlations based on physical causation a subsequent slide of the presentation asserts sn runs ahead of climate by 10 years sn presumably being their calculated sunspot numbers i can imagine various lead times between sunspot numbers and various climatic effects but i cannot see a 10 year lead time in either of those two graphs if you can please let me know while usoskin et al 2003 and related papers including their difficulties seem to me to be quite interesting it also seems to me that the attempt in the presentation to portray a correlation with either version of the hockey stick much less with both versions was not conducive to resolving any of the difficulties some incidental comments usoskin et al 2003 and the presentation emphasize the very much higher sunspot numbers in recent years than in earlier years even within the historical series of group sunspot numbers i estimate that the 11 year smoothed gsn of 1959 is about 57 per cent higher than that of 1790 which by my calculations was the highest before 1935 however using wolf sunspot numbers wsn the 11 year smoothed sunspot number for 1959 seems to be only about 20 per cent higher than that of 1790 still higher but not as strikingly so the next two graphs present annual and 11 year smoothed comparisons between numbers based on each of the systems data for these two graphs are from gsn and wsn i am not aware of the relative merits of the two numbering systems one obvious advantage of gsn is that they extend back to 1610 while wsn extend back only to about 1700 and some might suggest only to about 1750 update added 30 july 2004 a recent upi article climate the vanishing solar factor has been added to the mix i will comment briefly on just a couple of parts of it in order for the sun to force the climate to the little ice age observed during the maunder minimum the change in the solar constant had to be about twice what has been observed during modern zero sunspot periods 1 modern zero sunspot periods have been very brief the most recent calendar month with a zero wsn was june 1913 the most recent calendar year with a zero wsn was 1810 a zero sunspot day or week may not tell us much about what the so called solar constant would do during a zero sunspot year or a zero sunspot decade 2 the statement implies an assumption that variations of solar wind and the magnetic heliosphere and variations of the flux of cosmic rays have no climatic effects but without addressing research results indicating that they do raimund muscheler probably could direct the author of the article to some of that research in the 2002 harold jeffreys lecture to the royal astronomical society in london solanki said after 1980 however the earth s temperature exhibits a remarkably steep rise while the sun s irradiance displays at the most a weak secular trend hence the sun cannot be the dominant source of this latest temperature increase with man made greenhouse gases being the likely dominant alternative 1 that statement suggests that solanki had not yet read usoskin et al 2003 which he co authored again solar irradiance is not the only solar variable 2 if the latest temperature increase refers to a globally averaged surface temperature increase which allegedly exceeds lower free troposphere temperature changes then it refutes rather than supports notions of greehouse gases being a plausible much less a likely dominant alternative corrigenda anyone 2 july 04 steven mcintyre and ross mckitrick have posted an update about the process of resolving issues raised by their assertions of errors in the mann et al 1998 paper of hockey stick fame the corrigendum in nature today july 1 2004 by professors mann bradley and hughes is a clear admission that the disclosure of data and methods behind mbh98 was materially inaccurate the text acknowledges extensive errors in the description of the data set even more important is the new online supplementary information si site which reveals for the first time that key steps in the computations behind mbh98 were left out of and indeed conflict with the description of methods in the original paper there are additional comments at ross mckitrick s website scroll down a page to the update those who missed it may find john daly s related article broken hockey stick of interest for previous stop press items click above on the tasmanian devil links to selected articles under construction a list of articles at various websites which may be of interest at this time a very short list last updated 14 apr 04 recent guest papers new enso forecasts based on solar model by dr theodor landscheidt germany 22 dec 2003 the latest forecast from dr landscheidt s solar model for predicting enso events the next el niño should emerge around july 2006 and last at least until may 2007 with a probability of 80 cyclonic storms over western europe by max beran britain 15 dec 03 max beran analyses claims by the hadley centre that a significant trend in uk storminess over the past half century or so had occurred he finds that a faulty treatment of the north atlantic oscillation resulted in the claimed effect being a statistical artefact not actually real variations in co2 growth rate associated with solar activity by dr theodor landscheidt germany 21 sept 03 solar activity and solar motion variations are found to explain much of the variability of co 2 growth over the last several decades the average annual increase over the last 10 years was 1 66 ppmv yr which is less than half that assumed by climate models weather station s of the week this week click the name colombia stations this week stations are bogota the capital of colombia and three other stations neiva calipuerto and las gaviotas there would appear to be little or no hope that climate change might impact adversely on the illicit coca crop very little change is evident one station showing cooling bogota showing slight warming most likely the result of urban heating and the other two with neutral trends click below for other mostly rural weather station records from around the world also in español latest weather climate information latest satellite image of australia from james cook university time is in gmt latest msl synoptic chart of australia from australian bureau of meteorology time is in gmt daily global sea surface temperature from university of wisconsin madison usa sea surface temperatures also sea surface temperature variances from average from fnmoc usn usa links updated dec 8 2004 monthly sunspot data cycle 23 from data published by ips australia latest u s temperatures time in gmt temp in ºf global mean sea level see critique of topex poseidon latest arctic sea ice and snow cover from university of illinois northern hemisphere sea ice and southern hemisphere sea ice from fnmoc usn usa links updated dec 8 2004 el niño la niña southern oscillation click on the image below for the latest on the el niño la niña southern oscillation for recent news media stories some climate related others not a web site which may be of interest is www junkscience com special reports on major climate issues the peer review system is climate science politically corrupt testing the peer review process and finding it wanting john l daly s last paper published 22 feb 04 also of interest a previously published but quite apropos john brignell article sea level at hobart tasmania a failure to authenticate the authors of the sea level rise at port arthur scenario are shown to have failed to authenticate a vital claim they made about sea levels at hobart tasmania 11 jun 03 tasmanian sea levels the isle of the dead revisited a detailed report on the 160 year old sea level benchmark at port arthur tasmania which some scientists think is evidence of sea level rise but which actually shows no such thing 2 feb 03 quality control cru style 15 aug 2001 the full story on cru s lack of quality control suzuki s home town london ontario canada david suzuki says winter comes later now in his boyhood home town but the weather records from there and nearby show his claim is false 26 apr 03 greens sue u s government 31 aug 02 greenpeace and friends of the earth have mounted a lawsuit against the us government but why has the city of boulder colorado joined them find out here australia ratifies the kyoto protocol and implements it how exactly 21 aug 02 a discussion on the economic impact kyoto would have on australia badwater 19 jul 02 a world record in the making topex poseidon radar altimetry averaging the averages 5 dec 2001 just how accurate is sea level monitoring from satellites making the news the sunday times and british climate 20 nov 2001 how the london sunday times has distorted climatic data for britain without so much as a murmur from the originators of that data the nenana ice classic betting on warming 28 oct 2001 alaskans have been betting on the date and time of river ice breakup at nenana every spring now the greenhouse industry is in on the act with some sloppy science in science a day in the life of the scientific republic of australia a dark fable for christmas dec 2003 the hockey stick a new low in climate science 12 nov 2000 the new dogma by both the ipcc and us national assessment is that the medieval warm period and the little ice age during the last millennium never happened their claim is false and politically inspired a clap of thunder 12 may 2001 the saga of the barrow thunderstorm of 19th june 2000 in alaska the return of moby dick 17 april 2001 two papers in science about the deep oceans which make lots of questionable assumptions a smoking pea shooter 19 march 2001 human influence on the greenhouse effect has now been measured in a british study of two sets of satellite data 27 years apart this report reveals some surprising facts about the study not reported in the media the top of the world is the north pole turning to water 2 feb 2001 water at the north pole was big news in august 2000 was it just another media scare story or is the arctic sea ice really disappearing this report details the whole issue of arctic sea ice also see thi...