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ellisblog skip to main skip to sidebar ellisblog do your job bill belichick you can reach me at jellis41 gmail com sunday november 11 2012 lessons learned after it became clear that president obama would win the electoral college vote handily and garner a bare majority of the national popular vote i started writing down notes on the lessons learned from campaign 2012 those notes then became this piece for buzzfeed posted by john at 11 11 2012 04 15 00 pm sunday november 04 2012 the electoral college vote the presidential election boils down to three questions 1 can romney win every southern state i think the answer to that question is yes the trickiest state for romney is probably virginia north carolina and florida seem settled in his favor at least to me 2 can romney win colorado and new hampshire i think colorado is done i think he wins new hampshire by a point 3 can romney poach two of the three midwestern firewall states from obama which is to say can romney win iowa and wisconsin i think he wins both by a slim but no recount margin which means he wins the election we ll see i think it s possible that romney also wins ohio and pennsylvania comes very close in minnesota and michigan and runs surprisingly well in oregon illinois and new mexico but that presumes a more republican leaning electorate than most of the state polls are anticipating one thing i do know is that the early exit polls will skew democratic and that viewers wiil be well advised to disregard much of what they hear about early exits the number to watch is president obama s percentage of the white vote nationally if it s near 40 then he probably wins the electoral college and the popular vote if it s in the 36 37 range romney will be our next president in between obviously things get dicey whatever happens it is going to be a very late night note because i am working off an i pad i can t figure out how to post my map to blogger ordinarily i would take a screen shot of the map and post it that way but failure anyway you can access the map by going to 41jellis on twitter posted by john at 11 04 2012 08 35 00 pm monday october 29 2012 great swami predicts part one so there are two predictions one must make with regard to the presidential contest number one is the popular vote number two is the electoral college tally here s my math on the popular vote mitt romney will get 63 of the non latino white vote which will comprise 75 of the total electorate this will bring his total to 47 25 mitt romney will get 17 of the other non white vote which will add 4 25 to his column he will win the popular vote with 51 5 of the total later this week electoral college tally no toss ups posted by john at 10 29 2012 05 17 00 pm tuesday october 23 2012 the map here s my take on what the electoral college looks like now when i posted this on twitter there was some disagreement as you might expect here s my reasoning analysis 1 the great story of this election is obama s collapsing support among non latino whites nowhere is this collapse more complete than in the southern states that downdraft has taken north carolina off the table and i think dooms obama s efforts in virginia and in gold coast and i 4 florida those three states all lean romney in my view 2 i do think that romney can win pennsylvania if he made a major investment there but it appears that he will not do so if he doesn t then i think obama hangs on to win it ditto michigan although i think pennsylvania is slightly better for romney than michigan for a number of complicated reasons that are too lengthy to get into here 3 polls indicate that colorado is close and that nevada is lean obama i was tempted to put nevada in obama s total based largely on mr ralston s view that the president will win the state but i m a week away from doing that the mormon vote there strikes me as a significant x factor i am reasonably certain that romney will win colorado based on a lot of input from friends in the state and pollsters whose judgement i trust 4 wisconsin has had two major statewide elections in the last two years one for state supreme court justice and one for the recall of governor scott walker the republicans won the state supreme court justice election by a whisker they won the gubernatorial recall election by a relative landslide things haven t much changed there except that the 2012 presidential election features paul ryan as the gop s vice presidential candidate it s truly too close to call 5 president obama is slightly ahead in ohio but the race there seems destined to be decided by 25 000 votes or so so i left it toss up 6 iowa and new hampshire are stone toss ups 7 i haven t seen any data on maine s 2nd congressional district but i assume it goes obama and thus all 4 electoral college votes go into his total 8 the omaha ne congressional district went obama in 2008 it won t this time my somewhat larger view of the election is that romney will win the popular vote i m assuming that obama runs at 36 37 among non latino white voters 75 of the total vote in all likelihood that puts him at 27 28 of the total vote if he does exactly as well as he did last time among non white voters he adds 21 to his national vote total and he falls short of a majority so it may be that we end up with a romney win nationally and an obama win in the electoral college as a reader correctly pointed out to me the wisconsin state supreme court election was not a recall election the text on wisconsin has been corrected posted by john at 10 23 2012 11 26 00 am friday october 19 2012 closing time the race is close after the last debate closing arguments will be made here s my take on how the candidates might close posted by john at 10 19 2012 08 11 00 pm monday august 27 2012 muni blues the crisis in state and municipal finance edges ever closer when warren buffet decided to get out while he still could it was front page news he won t be the last to head for the exits my column on berkshire hathaway s adios to the state and muni market is here posted by john at 8 27 2012 10 47 00 am friday august 17 2012 the absence of leadership it s a big issue at cnn which is floundering badly here in the united states it s doing very well thank you internationally i wrote about this for walter mead s blog today posted by john at 8 17 2012 03 30 00 pm tuesday august 14 2012 the wall of shame my most recent post for via meadia calls for the building of a national wall of shame among those proposed for inclusion james johnson posted by john at 8 14 2012 02 48 00 pm friday august 10 2012 posts okay one post my friend walter mead is on one of his periodic state department informational exchange boondoggles missions this time in india in the interim he s asked a few of his pals to provide content for his most excellent blog v ia meadia this is my first contribution to the vm site it looks at the future of the new york times company posted by john at 8 10 2012 12 03 00 pm monday june 11 2012 obama and the 43 forty three percent of all white voters cast their lot with sen barack obama in 2008 how many white voters vote for him this time will determine whether he wins re election or not my take is here at real clear politics posted by john at 6 11 2012 09 33 00 am older posts home subscribe to posts atom the home team sharethis my blog list nyt trump administration pressures california with expanded voter fraud investigation 2 hours ago financial times uk homepage intel stock falls 20 as weak sales outlook dents turnaround 4 hours ago realclearpolitics homepage inside democrats secret effort to stack alaska s ballot 7 hours ago walter russell mead s blog a letter to tai s subscribers and readers 6 years ago wsj com what s news us hbo ceo resigning amid at t restructuring 7 years ago blog archive blog archive 11 11 11 18 1 11 04 11 11 1 10 28 11 04 1 10 21 10 28 1 10 14 10 21 1 08 26 09 02 1 08 12 08 19 2 08 05 08 12 1 06 10 06 17 1 06 03 06 10 1 05 27 06 03 1 05 20 05 27 1 05 13 05 20 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