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john h cochrane 0 skip to content home research overview books notes articles talks comments data programs news op eds overview general asset markets crisis and regulation monetary policy fiscal policy health insurance europe media teaching asset pricing blog substack old blog about about me short bio vita disclosures soaring contact open menu close menu home research overview books notes articles talks comments data programs news op eds overview general asset markets crisis and regulation monetary policy fiscal policy health insurance europe media teaching asset pricing blog substack old blog about about me short bio vita disclosures soaring contact open menu close menu home folder research back overview books notes articles talks comments data programs folder news op eds back overview general asset markets crisis and regulation monetary policy fiscal policy health insurance europe media teaching asset pricing folder blog back substack old blog folder about back about me short bio vita disclosures soaring contact john h cochrane senior fellow hoover institution stanford university no results found a bit about me i am an economist specializing in financial economics and macroeconomics i am the rose marie and jack anderson senior fellow at the hoover institution previously i was a professor of finance at the university of chicago booth school of business and before that at the department of economics i also write the grumpy economist blog all about john the complete archive of publications by john h cochrane research this page covers all my academic writing including published books papers working papers and comments it includes comments and talks given at academic conferences it also has information about my textbook asset pricing all research news and op eds this page includes op eds blog posts links to media coverage slides and videos of talks and other items of interest to the average non academic i usually post slides of any talk i ve given so if there was some delicious graph you saw at a talk you re likely to find it in the research for academic talks or news for other talks links all commentary teaching this takes you to class web pages students these are the right web pages booth sometimes echoes old and out of date information to other sites visitors you are welcome to use any of my materials that you find useful so long as you cite their source all yes the problem set answer links don t lead anywhere when i m not teaching all teaching my most recent work at a glance recent research featured june 29 2026 research macro money fiscal theory books 2020s inflation june 29 2026 research macro money fiscal theory books 2020s june 29 2026 big update this is a short 80 page booklet resulting from the karl brunner lecture it leans heavily on historical episodes and pushes all the equations to footnotes it summarizes fiscal theory interpreting many episodes and my subsequent efforts to find a theory in which higher interest rates lower inflation read the book june 29 2026 research macro money fiscal theory books 2020s april 19 2026 articles research macro money fiscal theory new keynesian inflation control is equilibrium selection april 19 2026 articles research macro money fiscal theory april 19 2026 the standard new keynesian model does not embody the usual policy intuition higher rates lower demand lower output and employment and then push inflation down via the phillips cure in the standard model interest rates on their own raise inflation and the entire force for disinflation is an equilibrium selection jump unrelated to higher interest rates the standard taylor rule hides that assumption but it s there there are many taylor rule disturbances that produce the same interest rate but different inflation read the paper matlab program april 19 2026 articles research macro money fiscal theory april 19 2026 macro money fiscal theory articles 2020s inflation dynamics with a generalized lucas phillips curve april 19 2026 macro money fiscal theory articles 2020s april 19 2026 revision i add lagged expectations to a lucas phillips curve in the style of mankiw and reis the resulting model is initially unstable so that inflation builds over time in response to a shock in the long run though inflation is stable this change solves the puzzle that in the standard textbook model inflation and output both rise in response to higher interest rates allowing at most a single initial downward jump the half of the last draft dealing with the standard model is now split off into new keynesian inflation control is equilibrium selection read the paper computer program april 19 2026 macro money fiscal theory articles 2020s january 10 2026 articles research macro money fiscal theory central bank independence january 10 2026 articles research macro money fiscal theory this is an essay based on my presentation at the peterson institute conference central bank independence in practice oct 31 2025 independence is not an absolute virtue it must come with accountability and a limited mandate and tools we need stronger limitations not just independence a shorter but better edited version of the essay appears in national affairs 67 spring 2026 january 10 2026 articles research macro money fiscal theory november 26 2025 articles research macro money fiscal theory the taylor rule in macroeconomic theory november 26 2025 articles research macro money fiscal theory november 26 2025 this is an essay prepared for the upcoming hoover press volume a celebration honoring john b taylor s contributions to economics and monetary policy the taylor rule is key to a theory of inflation under interest rate targets it stabilizes inflation in islm models it destabilizes inflation to counter multiple equilibria in new keynesian models and it smooths inflation in fiscal theory new keynesian models this is a profound illustration of the general finding that the taylor rule does robustly well in very different models the essay november 26 2025 articles research macro money fiscal theory view all research recent news op eds featured june 11 2026 crisis and regulation asset markets warsh s challenges financial regulation june 11 2026 crisis and regulation asset markets june 11 2026 an oped at the washington post with amit seru this time we outline the challenge to fix financial regulation before the next blowup and bailout we hope june 11 2026 crisis and regulation asset markets may 20 2026 monetary policy warsh s challenges may 20 2026 monetary policy may 20 2026 oped at washington post their title is how to protect the economy from trump and the ghosts of 1979 but this has nothing to do with the president must everything be trump derangement lower rates because ai is coming or fight oil and tariff inflation how should the fed react to fiscal pressure what to do about broken models and forecsasts may 20 2026 monetary policy april 1 2026 general monetary policy the iran war doesn t have to be a rerun of that 70s show april 1 2026 general monetary policy april 1 2026 wall street journal oil shocks only cause inflation and recession if bad policies follow in particular subsidies to pay higher prices price caps rationing export controls windfall profits taxes and sleepy central banks april 1 2026 general monetary policy view all news op eds other links google citations family webpage elizabethfama com contact copyright notice materials provided are for educational use only published articles are the copyright of their respective publishers all other material is copyright john h cochrane you re welcome to use any of my material for educational or non commercial use provided it is in its original form and i am recognized as its author please post links rather than post copies of the files so that your users get any updates which i post here 2020 john h cochrane all rights reserved