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d coal fired power station closures and increasing demand will lead to shortages from 2025 in nsw victoria in 2028 queensland in 2029 and south australia early next decade of course this is seen as a wake up call that we need more renewables more storage and more transmission lines sceptics will say we told you so in fact readers may remember my post from 18 june titled the gap with this figure i have crunched the numbers for daily electricity consumption in the eastern states for the 12 months from 1 september 2021 to 31 august 2022 here s that gap again in gigawatthours the wobbles in the total show the weekend drops and the christmas new year silly season the summer and winter demand peaks and the spring and autumn goldilocks periods the gap is currently at the very least 307 gigawatthours the average over 365 days is 418 gwhr and we are supposed to be converting most of our transport to electric or hydrogen in the next few years hydro produced a maximum of 99 gwhr snowy 2 0 will only produce another 48 gwhr and you can forget about batteries minuscule good luck with filling that gap how did fossil fuels compare with renewables over the past year the next figure shows the percentage of total consumption supplied by coal gas and wind plus solar coal had a short period where supply dropped to 52 3 but averaged 59 9 over the year rising to 68 9 on wednesday this week the plotted trendline shows a decrease of 0 9 over the year renewables decreased by a whopping 6 24 so much for the renewable transition gas filled the gap with an increase of 6 just so that you are clear that the crisis we narrowly avoided early this winter was not caused by unreliable coal fired stations here is a plot of renewable supply expressed as daily deviation from the 12 month average anomalies if you like wind and solar were producing much below expected and erratically from mid march to mid july finally the next figure shows seven day averages of the major energy suppliers and the total overlaid with price per megawatt the high prices coincide with gas and hydro increasing generation when renewables were unable to meet their average supply let alone the increase in demand mind the gap source opennem tags australia energy nem posted in aemo electricity energy use nem comments off on power gaps blackouts cheap reliable and renewable july 2022 august 2 2022 some more plots from the national electricity market nem for the month of july to illustrate the problems we continue to face figures 1 and 2 are updates of similar figures from june but figures 3 and 4 are new and hopefully show the problem even more clearly figure 1 july consumption all sources gigawatts note the dip in consumption every weekend is even more marked than in june figure 2 shows the relative contribution of all major sources but including battery if you can see it figure 2 july consumption as a percentage of total all sources coal usage increased mid month to provide over 60 of all electricity the contrast with all other sources is obvious for the next plot i calculated anomalies from the monthly means of all energy sources i have calculated totals for renewables wind and solar and for coal gas and hydro the main sources we rely on to keep our electricity system stable to allow for days when total consumption was up or down i subtracted total energy anomalies from coal gas and hydro figure 3 july consumption anomalies renewables and non renewables figure 4 shows how non renewables are controlled by renewables figure 4 coal gas and hydro as a function of renewables wind and solar can sell to the market as much energy as they produce so on days and hours when they can supply more coal gas and hydro must cut back however at those times when the sun doesn t shine and the wind is not as strong the shortfall has to be made up by non renewables and with gas in short supply that means higher costs the average daily price in july was 376 73 p s hydro is normally included as a renewable but really it isn t in drought years there s not enough water to power the turbines and in wet years like 2022 water release through the turbines causes downstream flooding so needs to be curtailed tags australia energy nem posted in electricity energy use comments off on cheap reliable and renewable july 2022 the cost of electricity july 7 2022 what drives changes in the wholesale price of electricity in the national electricity market nem here are some plots that may help understand the problem figure 1 shows electricity generation and wholesale price for the 12 months to 3 july figure 1 total generation and price the price had nearly doubled from august 2021 with no great increase in demand but began to rise more and more sharply since the invasion of ukraine on 24 february figure 2 shows the percentage contribution to total generation of various sources since then i have included batteries for entertainment value figure 2 percentage contribution to total generation since the start of the ukraine war on 12 june the aemo intervened in the market and set a cap on prices prices were claimed to have risen because of the shortage of gas and coal and the failure of coal generating sets certainly coal s contribution had fallen from around 60 of total generation to the low 50s over the three week period leading up to the intervention in this post i analyse how the price of electricity varied with changes in the energy mix during the period of rapid rise as both price and generation was changing it is necessary to remove the trend in price to get an accurate analysis figure 3 shows the price of electricity from the day after the ukraine invasion to the day after the aemo price cap fitted with a 2 nd order polynomial trend line figure 3 nem wholesale price figure 4 shows the detrended price timeseries figure 4 nem wholesale price detrended this shows that the price was becoming more volatile now i look at the contribution of each main generation source in relation to the average wholesale price of all electricity detrended in each the line at zero represents the actual trend figure 5 price and percentage contribution of solar generation as solar generation increased by one percent the price decreased by 1 63 per megawatt that would be excellent news if the sun shone 24 hours a day figure 6 price and percentage contribution of wind generation again we see the cost decreasing with more renewable generation 4 23 less for each extra percent of total generation however the plot also shows the converse when there is little wind the cost is much greater figure 7 price and percentage contribution of hydro generation great faith has been placed in the necessity of having pumped hydro as a store of renewable energy but figure 7 shows that the cost increases by 7 77 for each extra percentage point of total need that hydro back up provides well above trend figure 8 price and percentage contribution of gas generation gas is in short supply and very expensive so the cost of providing each additional percentage point of the total generation is 11 08 figure 9 price and percentage contribution of coal generation here s something the renewables industry and the abc won t tell you the wholesale price of electricity actually decreases as the proportion of coal generation increases as well price volatility decreases above 62 the average price across the network is relatively stable varying by 100 per megawatt below 62 the price becomes more and more volatile as more and more renewables come on line coal usage will drop to apparently near universal acclaim figure 10 shows how wind pushes out coal figure 10 percentage contribution of wind and coal but there was no new additional wind capacity during this period and figure 9 above shows cost and price volatility will increase as reliability decreases how should we keep prices down and maintain reliability coal is your friend tags australia energy nem posted in electricity energy use 3 comments cheap reliable and renewable july 4 2022 or how not to run an electricity grid here are some plots from the national electricity market nem for the month of june which may illustrate the problems we will continue to face figure 1 june consumption all sources gigawatts note the dip in consumption every weekend figure 2 shows the relative contribution of all major sources but including battery if you can see it figure 2 june consumption as a percentage of total all sources you may note that coal stepped up mid june to produce 60 of all electricity the contrast with all other sources is obvious the next plots show june monthly average maximum and minimum for all major sources figure 3 june consumption average maximum minimum note that while coal ranged from about 300 to 350 gw wind ranged from almost half coal s minimum to very little figure 4 june consumption average maximum minimum as percentages coal stands out for its consistency and with all the rooftop solar and solar farm expansion solar cannot produce 10 of our power needs the next figures compare coal with renewables to show the daily fluctuation that is how much the electricity generated and consumed each day compares with the one before figure 5 percentage daily change in electricity consumption coal and total the close match between coal and total consumption is obvious coal s daily percentage changes above that of the total on the 2 nd 13 th 16th 17th 18 th 21 st and 30 th june correspond to the fall in renewable generation especially wind on those dates as figure 6 shows for coal and wind figure 6 daily change in coal and wind consumption gigawatts the contrast is even starker when expressed as a percentage figure 7 daily percentage change in coal wind and solar consumption coal can change on a day to day basis by 20 to 30 percent wind can decrease by 76 percent or increase by 326 percent from one day to the next what a way to run an electricity grid one thing you can say about renewables they can be relied on to be unreliable tags australia energy nem posted in electricity energy use 3 comments blowin in the wind june 22 2022 the energy crisis seems to be ongoing the new normal apparently is it the fault of old rundown coal fired power stations with breakdowns is it the fault of greedy profit hungry energy suppliers gaming the system is it the fault of the ukraine war pushing up coal and gas prices is it the fault of the previous coalition government for not having the correct climate policy resulting in not enough investment in renewables or all of the above nope breakdowns last week in under funded power stations didn t help nor a shortage of high priced coal and gas and you can t blame companies wanting to keep their income above their costs but no amount of climate ambition and no possible amount of renewable capacity could have averted the problems we ve had last week and are likely to continue to have figure 1 shows our electricity consumption for the two weeks from 3 rd to 17 th june figure 1 all nem electricity consumption 3 17 june coal is the heavy lifter figure 2 shows the main energy sources as a percentage of the total usage figure 2 all sources as a percentage of nem electricity consumption 3 17 june note again it is coal followed by daylight and i don t mean solar note also that coal s relative contribution increased despite breakdowns and supply difficulties the next plot shows the percentage contribution of fossil fuels and all non fossil sources batteries hydro wind and solar i ve also included the negative contribution of pumped hydro when dams are refilled using excess electricity except on 13 th and 14 th when it was too expensive figure 3 fossil and non fossil generation as a percentage of consumption renewable energy advocates like averages they hide a multitude of sins here are the averages of all sources for each 30 minutes of the day for the last two weeks figure 4 average 30 minute nem electricity consumption 3 17 june coal varies between 12 000 and 16 000 mw per half hour as it responds to the twice daily peaks in demand and the daily peak in solar output solar is useless for meeting baseload around 4 00 a m or either of the daily peaks wind averages a touch over 4 000 mw all day so is also no help with extra demand battery discharge at peak times can barely be seen gas and hydro vary at similar rates to meet demand when needed though gas output remains higher throughout the night how reliable was wind generation which averaged over 4 000 mw per half hour here is a plot of actual wind generation at 30 minute intervals from 3 june to 17 june figure 5 actual wind generation 3 17 june for each half hour fickle is not an adequate description of course renewables can provide 18 000 mw at maximum capacity but at the wrong time of the day when the need was greatest they could provide only 6 880 mw and 90 of that was hydro our entire electricity generation including fossil generation depends on the reliability or otherwise of renewable generation our energy crisis last week was not caused by breakdowns fossil fuel prices greedy power companies coalition governments or lack of investment in renewables it was caused by a lack of wind figure 6 actual wind generation 3 17 june we are hostages to the weather bob dylan was right the answer is blowin in the wind source opennem tags australia energy nem posted in electricity energy use 3 comments the gap june 18 2022 here is a simple plot to demonstrate the challenge facing our new government and all future governments if they want to transition to a zero carbon economy this is the gap between all non fossil fuel generated electricity solar wind and hydro and total consumption in eastern australia over the past two weeks 3 rd to 17 th of june for every 30 minutes of the day that gap 12 000 to 16 000 mw for base load and 16 000 to 30 000 mw for peak load is now filled by gas and coal snowy 2 0 will only provide an extra 2 000 mw of storage that s just for electricity don t forget electric vehicles and hydrogen source opennem tags australia energy nem posted in electricity energy use 2 comments the real cost of renewables june 13 2022 electricity prices are increasing we know here is a plot of electricity prices across the eastern states in the national electricity market fig 1 nem prices 2009 2022 there is a shortage of available coal and gas generation resulting in record prices fig 2 nem coal gas prices 2009 2022 of course wind and solar are much cheaper fig 3 nem wind solar prices 2009 2022 see renewables are cheaper not so fast figure 4 shows electricity consumption for the eastern states last week friday 3 june to friday 10 june fig 4 nem total consumption 3 june 10 june note the daily cycle between baseload and peak load figure 5 is a plot of consumption for each 30 minutes of the day fig 5 nem total consumption by time of day the baseload the minimum amount of electricity to meet the needs of streetlights hospitals smelters and households occurs every day betw...