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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2012;

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and, macroeconomics, the, krugman, reading, list, det, uncertainty, modern, economics, recent, comments, lars, syll, suggestion, for, är, dags, att, skrota, stabiliseringspolitiska, ramverket, ergodicity, important, difference, between, keynes, knight, has, delivered, keen, answers, neoclassical, visionless, escaping, responsibility, centerpartiet, och, lärarlönerna, sänkta, löner, löser, ingenting, austerity, in, depressed, economies, new, keynesian, involuntary, unemployment, reality, dansklektion, ii, state, of, microfoundations, robert, solow, says, it, all, ask, mountains, posts, policy, categories, archives,

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ekonomisk (5), also (5), universe (5), concept (5), past (5), lower (5), asset (5), subscribe (4), syll (4), already (4), statistics (4), econometrics (4), school (4), fred (4), especially (4), irrelevant (4), ask (4), well (4), ago (4), mathematical (4), explain (4), macroeconomists (4), least (4), point (4), individuals (4), give (4), rules (4), trying (4), problem (4), your (4), microfounded (4), don (4), believe (4), mean (4), perhaps (4), able (4), special (4), possible (4), seem (4), does (4), forward (4), looking (4), information (4), behavior (4), perfectly (4), too (4), based (4), these (4), want (4), decisions (4), says (4), thing (4), chance (4), instead (4), decision (4), calculate (4), markets (4), generating (4), drawn (4), functions (4), assume (4), hit (4), most (4), great (4), theories (4), target (4), above (4), free (4), while (4), money (4), austerity (4), fiscal (4), rate (4), måste (4), bnp (4), blir (4), lönesänkningar (4), eftersom (4), jobb (4), politik (4), 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äggelser och galopperande arbetslöshet för det är ju självklart inte så att lönesänkningar räddar jobb i en situation där krisen som började kring 2007 08 långt ifrån är över varken globalt eller här hemma har vi mer än något annat behov av stimulansåtgärder och en ekonomisk politik som leder till ökad effektiv efterfrågan på samhällsnivå ökar lönesänkningar bara risken för att ännu fler kommer att stå utan jobb att tro sig kunna lösa kriser på detta sätt är en tillbakagång till den förfelade ekonomiska teori och politik som john maynard keynes slutgiltigt gjorde upp med redan på 1930 talet det var en politik som gjorde miljontals människor världen över arbetslösa trettiotalsdepressionen åtföljdes av deflation som visserligen kunde innebära höjda reallöner men bara för dem som lyckades behålla sina jobb visst kan det kortsiktigt fungera för enskilda företag och fackföreningar att satsa på frysta eller sänkta löner men det är ett atomistiskt felslut att tro att en generell lönesänkningspolitik skulle främja ekonomin tvärtom som keynes visade blir den aggregerade effekten av lönesänkningar katastrofal de sätter igång en kumulativ prissänknings spiral som får företags och enskildas skulder att realt öka eftersom skulderna nominellt inte påverkas av den allmänna pris och löneutvecklingen i en ekonomi som alltmer kommit att bygga på ökat låntagande och skuldsättning blir detta inkörsporten till en deflationskris detta i sin tur leder till att ingen vill låna pengar och kapital eftersom betalningsbördan över tiden blir för betungande företag blir insolventa investeringarna minskar arbetslösheten ökar och depressionen står för dörren låt oss tala och tala tydligt risken för skulddeflation kan aldrig bagatelliseras ser vi på svenska data över inflationsförändring och bnp för åren 1980 2008 kan vi konstatera att för varje punkt som den reala bnp understiger den potentiella bnp så tenderar inflationstakten att minska med en halv punkt detta måste tas på fullt allvar om gapet mellan real och potentiell bnp ökar de närmsta åren innebär detta att deflationen snart riskerar bli ett faktum det överhängande problemet för svensk ekonomi är att vi inte får fart på konsumtion och kreditgivning förtroende och effektiv efterfrågan måste återupprättas vi kan självklart inte bara sitta med armarna i kors och vänta på att ovädret drar vidare men att föreslå krislösning byggd på sänkta löner är att skriva ut recept på än värre katastrofer vill regering och arbetsgivare ta samhällsansvar och inte låta enfald få ersätta analysförmåga och besinning måste de klart och tydligt ta avstånd från allehanda kortsiktiga och kontraproduktiva lönesänkningsstrategier skall man ta sig ur djupa ekonomiska svackor krävs vassare bättre och effektivare instrument som exempelvis en aktiv och offensiv finanspolitik share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky austerity in depressed economies 23 mar 2012 at 11 44 posted in economics comments off on austerity in depressed economies paul krugman has a niece piece today on his blog commenting on the recently published paper by brad delong and larry summers on fiscal policy in a depressed economy even though the long run effects of austerity policies may be minimal they certainly impose large costs here and now self evident conclusion stop cutting and start stimulate at least as long as we are stilled trapped in a liquidity trap i ve been posting various versions of a scatterplot showing the relationship between one indicator of fiscal policy and growth since the crisis began here s a version restricted to eurozone countries and countries maintaining a fixed exchange rate against the euro with many of the countries labeled all data from eurostat still is this the kind of outcome you would have expected if you believed what the austerians were saying or is it what you would have expected if you d been reading those of us horrified by the turn to austerity what gets me about all of this is the incredible unwarrented arrogance of the austerians they decided that they knew better than textbook macroeconomics even though none of them had predicted the crisis or even seen the possibility of such a crisis and the wreckage now lies all around us share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky new keynesian macroeconomics and involuntary unemployment 21 mar 2012 at 16 25 posted in economics 7 comments people calling themselves new keynesians a gross misnomer ought to be rather embarrassed by the fact that the kind of microfounded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models they use cannot incorporate such a basic fact of reality as involuntary unemployment of course working with representative agent models this should come as no surprise if one representative agent is employed all representative agents are the kind of unemployment that occurs is voluntary since it is only adjustments of the hours of work that these optimizing agents make to maximize their utility being a new keynesian it ought to be of interest to know what keynes had to say on the issue in general theory 1937 chapter 2 he writes the classical school maintains that while the demand for labour at the existing money wage may be satisfied before everyone willing to work at this wage is employed this situation is due to an open or tacit agreement amongst workers not to work for less and that if labour as a whole would agree to a reduction of money wages more employment would be forthcoming if this is the case such unemployment though apparently involuntary is not strictly so and ought to be included under the above category of voluntary unemployment due to the effects of collective bargaining etc the classical theory is best regarded as a theory of distribution in conditions of full employment so long as the classical postulates hold good unemployment which is in the above sense involuntary cannot occur apparent unemployment must therefore be the result either of temporary loss of work of the between jobs type or of intermittent demand for highly specialised resources or of the effect of a trade union closed shop on the employment of free labour thus writers in the classical tradition overlooking the special assumption underlying their theory have been driven inevitably to the conclusion perfectly logical on their assumption that apparent unemployment apart from the admitted exceptions must be due at bottom to a refusal by the unemployed factors to accept a reward which corresponds to their marginal productivity obviously however if the classical theory is only applicable to the case of full employment it is fallacious to apply it to the problems of involuntary unemployment if there be such a thing and who will deny it the classical theorists resemble euclidean geometers in a non euclidean world who discovering that in experience straight lines apparently parallel often meet rebuke the lines for not keeping straight as the only remedy for the unfortunate collisions which are occurring yet in truth there is no remedy except to throw over the axiom of parallels and to work out a non euclidean geometry something similar is required to day in economics we need to throw over the second postulate of the classical doctrine and to work out the behaviour of a system in which involuntary unemployment in the strict sense is possible the final court of appeal for macroeconomic models is the real world and as long as no convincing justification is put forward for how the inferential bridging de facto is made macroeconomic modelbuilding is little more than hand waving that give us rather little warrant for making inductive inferences from models to real world target systems if substantive questions about the real world are being posed it is the formalistic mathematical representations utilized to analyze them that have to match reality not the other way around share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky economics and reality 19 mar 2012 at 20 23 posted in economics theory of science methodology comments off on economics and reality modern economics has become increasingly irrelevant to the understanding of the real world in his seminal book economics and reality 1997 tony lawson traced this irrelevance to the failure of economists to match their deductive axiomatic methods with their subject it is sad to say as relevant today as it was fifteen years ago it is still a fact that within mainstream economics internal validity is everything and external validity nothing why anyone should be interested in that kind of theories and models is beyond my imagination as long as mainstream economists do not come up with any export licenses for their theories and models to the real world in which we live they really should not be surprised if people say that this is not science but autism studying mathematics and logics is interesting and fun it sharpens the mind in pure mathematics and logics we do not have to worry about external validity but economics is not pure mathematics or logics it s about society the real world forgetting that economics is really in dire straits economics and reality was a great inspiration to me fifteen years ago it still is share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky dansklektion ii 18 mar 2012 at 19 44 posted in varia comments off on dansklektion ii share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky modern macroeconomics and uncertainty 17 mar 2012 at 16 26 posted in economics statistics econometrics theory of science methodology 1 comment the financial crisis of 2007 08 hit most laymen and economists with surprise what was it that went wrong with our macroeconomic models since they obviously did not foresee the collapse or even make it conceivable there are many who have ventured to answer this question and they have come up with a variety of answers ranging from the exaggerated mathematization of economics to irrational and corrupt politicians but the root of our problem goes much deeper it ultimately goes back to how we look upon the data we are handling in modern macroeconomics dynamic stochastic general equilibrium new synthesis new classical and new keynesian variables are treated as if drawn from a known data generating process that unfolds over time and on which we therefore have access to heaps of historical time series if we do not assume that we know the data generating process if we do not have the true model the whole edifice collapses and of course it has to i mean who really honestly believes that we should have access to this mythical holy grail the data generating process modern macroeconomics obviously did not anticipate the enormity of the problems that unregulated efficient financial markets created why because it builds on the myth of us knowing the data generating process and that we can describe the variables of our evolving economies as drawn from an urn containing stochastic probability functions with known means and variances this is like saying that you are going on a holiday trip and that you know that the chance the weather being sunny is at least 30 and that this is enough for you to decide on bringing along your sunglasses or not you are supposed to be able to calculate the expected utility based on the given probability of sunny weather and make a simple decision of either or uncertainty is reduced to risk but as keynes convincingly argued in his monumental treatise on probability 1921 this is no always possible often we simply do not know according to one model the chance of sunny weather is perhaps somewhere around 10 and according to another equally good model the chance is perhaps somewhere around 40 we cannot put exact numbers on these assessments we cannot calculate means and variances there are no given probability distributions that we can appeal to in the end this is what it all boils down to we all know that many activities relations processes and events are of the keynesian uncertainty type the data do not unequivocally single out one decision as the only rational one neither the economist nor the deciding individual can fully pre specify how people will decide when facing uncertainties and ambiguities that are ontological facts of the way the world works some macroeconomists however still want to be able to use their hammer so they decide to pretend that the world looks like a nail and pretend that uncertainty can be reduced to risk so they construct their mathematical models on that assumption the result financial crises and economic havoc how much better how much bigger chance that we do not lull us into the comforting thought that we know everything and that everything is measurable and we have everything under control if instead we could just admit that we often simply do not know and that we have to live with that uncertainty as well as it goes fooling people into believing that one can cope with an unknown economic future in a way similar to playing at the roulette wheels is a sure recipe for only one thing economic catastrophy share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the state of microfoundations and macroeconomics robert solow says it all 16 mar 2012 at 15 15 posted in economics theory of science methodology 3 comments the purported strength of new classical and new keynesian macroeconomics is that they have firm anchorage in preference based microeconomics and especially the decisions taken by inter temporal utility maximizing forward loooking individuals to some of us however this has come at too high a price the almost quasi religious insistence that macroeconomics has to have microfoundations without ever presenting neither ontological nor epistemological justifications for this claim has put a blind eye to the weakness of the whole enterprise of trying to depict a complex economy based on an all embracing representative actor equipped with superhuman knowledge forecasting abilities and forward looking rational expectations it is as if after having swallowed the sour grapes of the sonnenschein mantel debreu theorem these economists want to resurrect the omniscient walrasian auctioneer in the form of all knowing representative actors equipped with rational expectations and assumed to somehow know the true structure of our model of the world how that could even be conceivable is beyond my imagination given that the ongoing debate on microfoundations if anything shows that not even we the economists can come to agreement on a common model following the greatest economic depression since the 1930s the grand old man of modern economic...