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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during November 2012;

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exploit the relatively ignorant creating an inefficiency in the process the resulting distribution of income may be grossly unequal and widely perceived as intolerably unfair industrial market economies have been vulnerable to excessively long episodes of unemployment and underutilized capacity not accidentally but intrinsically environmental damage is encouraged as a way of reducing private costs the list is long half of angus burgin s book is about the good hayek s attempts to formulate and to propagate a modified version of laissez faire that would work better and meet his standards for a liberal society hayek and his friends were never able to settle on a name for this kind of society liberal in the european tradition was associated with bad old manchester liberalism and neither neo liberal nor libertarian seemed to be satisfactory the bad hayek emerged when he aimed to convert a wider public then as often happens he tended to overreach and to suggest more than he had legitimately argued the road to serfdom was a popular success but was not a good book leaving aside the irrelevant extremes or even including them it would be perverse to read the history as of 1944 or as of now as suggesting that the standard regulatory interventions in the economy have any inherent tendency to snowball into serfdom the correlations often run the other way sixty five years later hayek s implicit prediction is a failure rather like marx s forecast of the coming immiserization of the working class robert solow four horsemen on the fundamental flaws of our economic system 24 nov 2012 at 23 35 posted in economics politics society comments off on four horsemen on the fundamental flaws of our economic system mainstream macroeconomics a complete shambles 23 nov 2012 at 16 01 posted in economics 1 comment simon wren lewis has a piece on his blog on how teaching macroeconomics after the crisis looks i was asked the other day how macroeconomics teaching at oxford had changed as a result of the great recession of 2008 9 a lthough the crisis has added material nothing has really been thrown away as a consequence of what has happened we have not either individually or collectively decided that the great recession implies that some chunk of what we used to teach is clearly wrong and should be jettisoned as a result as paul krugman has pointed out many times recent developments have in many ways been a vindication of the basic keynesian model that lies at the heart of any undergraduate macro course the mess we are currently in is due in part to policy makers ignoring this basic macroeconomic analysis this is really gobsmacking first of all because i find this rather self congratulatory and complacent attitude unwarranted but also re krugman because it at least to my reading seems to be in bad accordance with what krugman has repeatedly said after the finance crisis e g in his speach at the eastern economic association one can make excuses for the failure of the economics profession to foresee that the 2008 financial crisis would happen it s much harder to make such excuses for much of the profession s failure to realize that such a thing could happen t o argue or even to think about the possibility that the old evils could manifest themselves in new forms would have been to question the whole basis of decades of policy not to mention the foundations of a very lucrative industry we ve entered a dark age of macroeconomics in which much of the profession has lost its former knowledge just as barbarian europe had lost the knowledge of the greeks and romans how did all this knowledge get lost first success in academic economics came from publishing hard papers meaning papers that used rigorous and preferably difficult mathematics successive cohorts of students were trained only in the newly rigorous version of macro which had lost touch with the field s previous intellectual achievements some economists are pushing forward with new macroeconomic models but as i ve said our big problem was not lack of models the biggest problem we had as a profession wasn t failure to keep up with a changing world it was failure to remember what our fathers learned and re the policymakers ignorance i would rather say like keynes practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences are usually the slaves of some defunct economist as an appendage i can t restrain myself having a ph d in both economics and economic history from citing brad delong s complaint about economists obviously not being able or wanting to learn from history we economists who are steeped in economic and financial history and aware of the history of economic thought concerning financial crises and their effects have reason to be proud of our analyses over the past five years we understood where we were heading because we knew where we had been those who said that there would be no downturn or that recovery would be rapid or that the economy s real problems were structural or that supporting the economy would produce inflation or high short term interest rates or that immediate fiscal austerity would be expansionary were wrong not just a little wrong completely wrong of course we historically minded economists are not surprised that they were wrong we are however surprised at how few of them have marked their beliefs to market in any sense on the contrary many of them their reputations under water have doubled down on those beliefs apparently in the hope that events will for once break their way and that people might thus be induced to forget their abysmal forecasting track record occasional links has some similar thoughts on the subject it is extraordinary to sit here in the midst of the crisis and read the self satisfied pronouncements of economists about the state of the discipline at the level of teaching where is the history of the theories and debates that have taken place in macroeconomics since at least the publication of john maynard keynes s general theory and what about the theories other than the neoclassical and keynesian versions of is lm where do they fit into the curriculum as far as the theory is concerned what role does uncertainty play in their models and how do crises occur endogenously rather than as the result of some exogenous disturbance in either the real or financial side and what about the role of inequality in determining the level and rates of growth of prices output and employment not to mention the external sector and finally what s the explanation of how alternative economic policies are adopted and implemented other than as irrational mistakes n either macroeconomics nor microeconomics is in good shape they weren t before the crisis began and they re not now in the midst of the second great depression both areas need to be fundamentally rethought economics in the crisis remains in crisis the line of repentant mainstream neoclassical economists ought to be long and it s abolutely outrageous that we haven t seen even one single prominent economist who has had the courage and integrity to admit that he or she got things completely wrong share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky keynes vs hayek on bbc radio 4 22 nov 2012 at 17 58 posted in economics 3 comments john maynard keynes and friedrich hayek are regarded as two of the twentieth century s greatest economists modern day followers came together at lse to debate the ideas of their intellectual heroes the event was chaired by paul mason teflon econometrics 22 nov 2012 at 14 25 posted in statistics econometrics 1 comment at least since the time of keynes s famous critique of tinbergen s econometric methods those of us in the social science community who have been unpolite enough to dare questioning the preferred methods and models applied in quantitive research in general and econometrics more specifically are as a rule met with disapproval although people seem to get very agitated and upset by the critique just read the commentaries on this blog if you don t believe me defenders of received theory always say that the critique is nothing new that they have always been well aware of the problems and so on and so on so for the benefit of all mindless practitioners of econometrics and statistics who don t want to be disturbed in their doings eminent mathematical statistician david freedman has put together a very practical list of vacuous responses to criticism that can be freely used to save one s peace of mind we know all that nothing is perfect the assumptions are reasonable the assumptions don t matter the assumptios are conservative you can t prove the assumptions are wrong the biases will cancel we can model the biases we re only doing what evereybody else does now we use more sophisticated techniques if we don t do it someone else will what would you do the decision maker has to be better off with us than without us the models aren t totally useless you have to do the best you can with the data you have to make assumptions in order to make progress you have to give the models the benefit of the doubt where s the harm share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky utvärderingseländet snart på ett universitet nära dig 21 nov 2012 at 20 48 posted in education school comments off on utvärderingseländet snart på ett universitet nära dig jan björklund har rätt då han varnar för alltför ryckig finansiering kortsiktighet osäkra anställningsvillkor och alltför stor byråkrati farsoter som idag i alltför hög grad plågar svenska forskare förutom byråkratisk tidsspillan leder det i många fall till att vi forskare duckar för de riktigt svåra riskfyllda och långsiktiga utmaningarna vad vill då björklund göra åt detta problem som han så insiktsfullt identifierat svaret är minst sagt överraskande han vill utsätta oss forskare för ännu fler och större utvärderingar utöver alla de utvärderingar i samband med anslagsansökningar och liknande som redan idag tillhör en forskares vardag vill björklund utsätta oss för ännu en där dessutom de enskilda lärosätenas framtid ska stå på spel han skriver att forskningen ska granskas med fyra eller femårsintervall och att resultatet sedan ska ligga till grund för resursfördelningen mellan lärosätena för att främja kvalitet förutom att ha motsatt verkan på forskningen jämfört med den som björklund i sin retorik säger sig eftersträva så kommer hans reform att resultera i byråkratisering och resursslöseri det är bara att kika på hur det har gått i storbritannien där det system han föreslår redan är genomfört det har resulterat i en jättelik byråkratisk apparat inte bara på central nivå utan även på de enskilda universiteten som startat hela avdelningar av administratörer avsatta att förse centralmakten med de uppgifter som begärts in så rosaskimrande framställda som möjligt svenska universitetsledningar tenderar numera att prioritera lärosätets intäkter högre än allt annat inklusive klassiska akademiska ideal som bildning och fri forskning därför fruktar vi att ett genomförande av jan björklunds planer kommer att leda till samma slags vansinne i sverige som vi nu ser i storbritannien när ska vi få en utbildningsminister som förstår att långsiktig forskning med sikte på stora genombrott kräver ett visst mått av arbetsro olle häggström m fl next page recent posts arbetslöshetsiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what 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