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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during September 2013;

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on, and, from, chicago, of, inequality, theory, recent, comments, lars, syll, does, free, trade, really, make, us, richer, robert, lucas, debt, unbelievable, stupidity, even, to, come, alfred, marshall, mathematics, in, economics, lol, esbjörn, svensson, round, midnight, metamorphosis, eugene, fama, outstanding, mumbo, jumbo, songs, hard, times, judea, pearl, regression, causation, thinking, about, sweden, the, united, states, well, being, mogens, buxtehude, en, dansklektion, articulate, silences, ricardo, comparative, advantage, is, not, relevant, anymore, testing, game, real, people, posts, policy, reading, list, categories, archives,

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sep 2013 lars p syll lars p syll blog lps cv downloadable publications gretl does free trade really make us richer 30 sep 2013 at 23 09 posted in economics comments off on does free trade really make us richer robert lucas on debt unbelievable stupidity even to come from chicago 30 sep 2013 at 18 33 posted in economics 5 comments interviewed in this television documentary on the the economic crisis nobel laureate robert lucas answered a question wind to 19 40 in the programme if the level of debt was a problem by telling us that the high level of debt is not an interesting problem since for a country as a whole debt and credit always cancel out unbelievable stupidity even to come from a chicago economist fortunately dirk bezemer and steve keen were also interviewed and could sort things out and give a more sensible view on the increasing indebtedness of modern economies alfred marshall on mathematics in economics 30 sep 2013 at 17 36 posted in economics comments off on alfred marshall on mathematics in economics balliol croft cambridge 27 ii 06 my dear bowley i have not been able to lay my hands on any notes as to mathematico economics that would be of any use to you and i have very indistinct memories of what i used to think on the subject i never read mathematics now in fact i have forgotten even how to integrate a good many things but i know i had a growing feeling in the later years of my work at the subject that a good mathematical theorem dealing with economic hypotheses was very unlikely to be good economics and i went more and more on the rules 1 use mathematics as a short hand language rather than as an engine of inquiry 2 keep to them till you have done 3 translate into english 4 then illustrate by examples that are important in real life 5 burn the mathematics 6 if you can t succeed in 4 burn 3 this last i did often i believe in newton s principia methods because they carry so much of the ordinary mind with them mathematics used in a fellowship thesis by a man who is not a mathematician by nature and i have come across a good deal of that seems to me an unmixed evil and i think you should do all you can to prevent people from using mathematics in cases in which the english language is as short as the mathematical your emptyhandedly alfred marshall h t jan milch lol 30 sep 2013 at 09 19 posted in varia comments off on lol esbjörn svensson round midnight 29 sep 2013 at 19 13 posted in varia comments off on esbjörn svensson round midnight it breaks my heart every time i play your music and i m reminded you re no longer with us thank goodness your music lives on esbjörn metamorphosis 29 sep 2013 at 17 30 posted in varia comments off on metamorphosis eugene fama outstanding mumbo jumbo from chicago 28 sep 2013 at 19 51 posted in economics 1 comment i met eugene fama in his office at the booth school of business i began by pointing out that the efficient markets hypothesis which he promulgated in the nineteen sixties and nineteen seventies had come in for a lot of criticism since the financial crisis began in 1987 and i asked fama how he thought the theory which says prices of financial assets accurately reflect all of the available information about economic fundamentals had fared eugene fama i think it did quite well in this episode stock prices typically decline prior to and in a state of recession this was a particularly severe recession prices started to decline in advance of when people recognized that it was a recession and then continued to decline there was nothing unusual about that that was exactly what you would expect if markets were efficient many people would argue that in this case the inefficiency was primarily in the credit markets not the stock market that there was a credit bubble that inflated and ultimately burst i don t even know what that means people who get credit have to get it from somewhere does a credit bubble mean that people save too much during that period i don t know what a credit bubble means i don t even know what a bubble means these words have become popular i don t think they have any meaning i guess most people would define a bubble as an extended period during which asset prices depart quite significantly from economic fundamentals that s what i would think it is but that means that somebody must have made a lot of money betting on that if you could identify it it s easy to say prices went down it must have been a bubble after the fact i think most bubbles are twenty twenty hindsight now after the fact you always find people who said before the fact that prices are too high people are always saying that prices are too high when they turn out to be right we anoint them when they turn out to be wrong we ignore them they are typically right and wrong about half the time are you saying that bubbles can t exist they have to be predictable phenomena i don t think any of this was particularly predictable john cassidy songs of hard times 28 sep 2013 at 17 47 posted in varia comments off on songs of hard times what a fabulously majestic voice and if you have access to spotify you can enjoy that absolutely incredible voice even more in this superb recording of sviridov s masterpiece and don t forget to turn up the volume judea pearl on regression and causation 28 sep 2013 at 11 35 posted in statistics econometrics 6 comments judea pearl was kind enough to send yours truly his article co authored with bryant chen regression and causation a critical examination of six econometrics textbooks a while ago it has now been published in real world economics review issue no 65 the article addresses two very important questions in the teaching of modern econometrics and its different textbooks how is causality treated in general and more specifically to what extent they use a distinct causal notation the authors have for years been part of an extended effort of advancing explicit causal modeling especially graphical models in applied sciences and this is a first examination of to what extent these endeavours have found their way into econometrics textbooks although the text partly is of a rather demanding technical nature i would definitely recommend it for reading especially for social scientists with an interest in these issues pearl s seminal contribution to this research field is well known and indisputable but on the taming and resolve of the issues i however have to admit that under the influence of especially david freedman and nancy cartwright i still have some doubts on the reach especially in terms of realism and relevance of these solutions for social sciences in general and economics in specific see here here here and here and with regards to the present article i think that since the distinction between the interventionist e y do x and the more traditional conditional expectationist e y x is so crucial for the subsequent argumentation a more elaborated presentation had been of value not the least because then the authors could also more fully explain why the first is so important and if why this in my freedman s and cartwright s view can be exported from engineer contexts where it arguably easily and universally apply to socio economic contexts where manipulativity and modularity are not perhaps so universally at hand share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky thinking about inequality sweden and the united states 28 sep 2013 at 10 03 posted in economics comments off on thinking about inequality sweden and the united states inequality and well being 28 sep 2013 at 09 50 posted in economics politics society comments off on inequality and well being sometimes a picture says more than a thousand words source mogens buxtehude en dansklektion 28 sep 2013 at 09 00 posted in varia 1 comment articulate silences 27 sep 2013 at 21 19 posted in varia comments off on articulate silences ricardo s theory of comparative advantage is not relevant anymore 27 sep 2013 at 08 43 posted in economics 8 comments testing game theory on real people 25 sep 2013 at 19 19 posted in economics comments off on testing game theory on real people the prisoner s dilemma is a familiar concept to just about everyone who took econ 101 yet no one s ever actually run the experiment on real prisoners before until two university of hamburg economists tried it out in a recent study comparing the behavior of inmates and students surprisingly for the classic version of the game prisoners were far more cooperative than expected menusch khadjavi and andreas lange put the famous game to the test for the first time ever putting a group of prisoners in lower saxony s primary women s prison as well as students through both simultaneous and sequential versions of the game they expected building off of game theory and behavioral economic research that show humans are more cooperative than the purely rational model that economists traditionally use that there would be a fair amount of first mover cooperation even in the simultaneous simulation where there s no way to react to the other player s decisions and even in the sequential game where you get a higher payoff for betraying a cooperative first mover a fair amount will still reciprocate as for the difference between student and prisoner behavior you d expect that a prison population might be more jaded and distrustful and therefore more likely to defect the results went exactly the other way the paper demonstrates that prisoners aren t necessarily as calculating self interested and untrusting as you might expect and as behavioral economists have argued for years as mathematically interesting as nash equilibrium might be they don t line up with real behavior all that well business insider h t geoff kennedy next page recent posts arbetslöshetsiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant links will not be posted and please remember being a full time professor leaves only limited time to respond to comments recent comments jan wiklund on arbetslösheten inte st lars on lönebildning och arbetslöshet lars on lönebildning och arbetslöshet fred on lönebildning och arbetslöshet lars on lönebildning och arbetslöshet lars on lönebildning och 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