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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during August 2018;

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financial and economic instability which was even weaker for more distinguished journals these observations signify a key difference in terms of the lessons learned from past crises when compared to the great depression which gave rise to a broad consensus that capitalist economies are not self sustaining a consensus that eventually helped to forge the mixed economies dominating the richer parts of the planet e aigler m aistleitner f glötzl j kapeller when did you last hear an economist say something like this 30 aug 2018 at 22 22 posted in economics 1 comment if the observations of the red shift in the spectra of massive stars don t come out quantitatively in accordance with the principles of general relativity then my theory will be dust and ashes albert einstein 1920 the gambler s ruin wonkish 30 aug 2018 at 16 22 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on the gambler s ruin wonkish in case you re curious what happens if you start out with 25 but we change the probabilities from 0 50 0 50 into e g 0 49 0 51 you can check this out easily with e g gretl matrix b 1 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 49 0 0 0 51 0 0 49 0 0 0 1 matrix v25 0 1 0 0 matrix x v25 b 50 x which gives x 0 68 0 00 0 00 0 32 vad har vi för glädje av ekonomer 30 aug 2018 at 14 29 posted in varia comments off on vad har vi för glädje av ekonomer die risikogesellschaft 30 aug 2018 at 13 06 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on die risikogesellschaft schlechte wissenschaft 30 aug 2018 at 08 33 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on schlechte wissenschaft wenn wissenschaftler etwas herausgefunden haben wann kann man sich auch tatsächlich darauf verlassen eine antwort lautet wenn fachkollegen die studie überprüft haben eine andere wenn sie in einer renommierten fachzeitschrift veröffentlicht wurde doch manchmal reicht auch beides zusammen nicht aus wie forscher jetzt gezeigt haben und zwar auf die beste und aufwendigste art sie haben die zugrundeliegenden experimente wiederholt und geschaut ob noch einmal dasselbe dabei herauskommt es ging um 21 sozialwissenschaftliche studien aus den journalen nature und science mehr renommee geht nicht und natürlich werden dort eingereichte arbeiten von experten geprüft peer review trotzdem kam in fast 40 prozent der fälle nicht noch einmal dasselbe heraus sondern meistens gar nichts selbst wenn bei wiederholung der experimente ähnliche effekte auftraten waren diese merklich kleiner als im original durchschnittlich nur dreiviertel so groß wenn man die nicht replizierbaren studien einrechnet schrumpft der durchschnittliche effekt aller wiederholungen sogar auf die hälfte deshalb sagt forschungskritiker john ioannidis wenn man einen artikel über ein sozialwissenschaftliches experiment in nature oder science liest muss man den effekt gleich halbieren die zeit vem fan äger vad 29 aug 2018 at 20 05 posted in varia comments off on vem fan äger vad tillägnad maggan i horn min och barnens östgötska kioskfavorit jimmie åkesson bekräftar vad vi länge anat 29 aug 2018 at 15 59 posted in politics society comments off on jimmie åkesson bekräftar vad vi länge anat när jimmie åkesson tidigare idag intervjuades av p3 s morgonpasset inledde han med att såga hela kanalen hade jag varit chef här hade jag lagt ner p3 direkt jag tycker det är vänsterliberal smörja sade åkesson att p3 är en skitkanal kan nog många av oss hålla med om en massa tyckmyckentrutade ordbajsare som mellan ordkaskader spelar skvalmusik att detta skulle vara vänsterliberalt är nog dock lite svårare att svälja men intervjun var intressant så tillvida att den bekräftade vad vi länge anat åkesson är i likhet med med den amerikanske fake news presidenten donald trump beredd att använd politisk makt för att likt diktatorer stänga ner medier han inte gillar påminner faktikt också lite grand om vad en tysk snubbe höll på med på 1930 talet och snart är det val the calibration hoax 29 aug 2018 at 08 34 posted in economics 4 comments there are many kinds of useless economics held in high regard within mainstream economics establishment today few if any are less deserved than the macroeconomic theory method mostly connected with nobel laureates finn kydland robert lucas edward prescott and thomas sargent called calibration in physics it may possibly not be straining credulity too much to model processes as ergodic where time and history do not really matter but in social and historical sciences it is obviously ridiculous if societies and economies were ergodic worlds why do econometricians fervently discuss things such as structural breaks and regime shifts that they do is an indication of the unrealisticness of treating open systems as analyzable with ergodic concepts the future is not reducible to a known set of prospects it is not like sitting at the roulette table and calculating what the future outcomes of spinning the wheel will be reading sargent and other calibrationists one comes to think of robert clower s apt remark that much economics is so far removed from anything that remotely resembles the real world that it s often difficult for economists to take their own subject seriously instead of just assuming calibration and rational expectations to be right one ought to confront the hypothesis with the available evidence it is not enough to construct models anyone can construct models to be seriously interesting models have to come with an aim they have to have an intended use if the intention of calibration and rational expectations is to help us explain real economies it has to be evaluated from that perspective a model or hypothesis without a specific applicability is not really deserving of our interest to say as edward prescott that one can only test if some theory whether it incorporates rational expectations or for that matter irrational expectations is or is not consistent with observations is not enough without strong evidence all kinds of absurd claims and nonsense may pretend to be science we have to demand more of a justification than this rather watered down version of anything goes when it comes to rationality postulates if one proposes rational expectations one also has to support its underlying assumptions none is given which makes it rather puzzling how rational expectations has become the standard modelling assumption made in much of modern macroeconomics perhaps the reason is as paul krugman has it that economists often mistake beauty clad in impressive looking mathematics for truth but i think prescott s view is also the reason why calibration economists are not particularly interested in empirical examinations of how real choices and decisions are made in real economies in the hands of lucas prescott and sargent rational expectations has been transformed from an in principle testable hypothesis to an irrefutable proposition irrefutable propositions may be comfortable like religious convictions or ideological dogmas but it is not science share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky when you are old personal 28 aug 2018 at 19 45 posted in varia 1 comment deutschland ungleichland 28 aug 2018 at 17 05 posted in politics society comments off on deutschland ungleichland some common misunderstandings about randomization 28 aug 2018 at 14 22 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on some common misunderstandings about randomization randomization is an alternative when we do not know enough to control but is generally inferior to good control when we do we suspect that at least some of the popular and professional enthusiasm for rcts as well as the belief that they are precise by construction comes from misunderstandings about random or realized confounding on the one hand and confounding in expectation on the other the rct strategy is only successful if we are happy with estimates that are arbitrarily far from the truth just so long as the errors cancel out over a series of imaginary experiments in reality the causality that is being attributed to the treatment might in fact be coming from an imbalance in some other cause in our particular trial limiting this requires serious thought about possible covariates angus deaton nancy cartwright the point of making a randomized experiment is often said to be that it ensures that any correlation between a supposed cause and effect indicates a causal relation this is believed to hold since randomization allegedly ensures that a supposed causal variable does not correlate with other variables that may influence the effect the problem with that simplistic view on randomization is that the claims made are both exaggerated and false even if you manage to do the assignment to treatment and control groups ideally random the sample selection certainly is except in extremely rare cases not random even if we make a proper randomized assignment if we apply the results to a biased sample there is always the risk that the experimental findings will not apply what works there does not work here randomization hence does not guarantee or ensure making the right causal claim although randomization may help us rule out certain possible causal claims randomization per se does not guarantee anything even if both sampling and assignment are made in an ideal random way performing standard randomized experiments only give you averages the problem here is that although we may get an estimate of the true average causal effect this may mask important heterogeneous effects of a causal nature although we get the right answer of the average causal effect being 0 those who are treated may have causal effects equal to 100 and those not treated may have causal effects equal to 100 contemplating being treated or not most people would probably be interested in knowing about this underlying heterogeneity and would not consider the average effect particularly enlightening there is almost always a trade off between bias and precision in real world settings a little bias often does not overtrump greater precision and most importantly in case we have a population with sizeable heterogeneity the average treatment effect of the sample may differ substantially from the average treatment effect in the population if so the value of any extrapolating inferences made from trial samples to other populations is highly questionable since most real world experiments and trials build on performing a single randomization what would happen if you kept on randomizing forever does not help you to ensure or guarantee that you do not make false causal conclusions in the one particular randomized experiment you actually do perform it is indeed difficult to see why thinking about what you know you will never do would make you happy about what you actually do randomization is not a panacea it is not the best method for all questions and circumstances proponents of randomization make claims about its ability to deliver causal knowledge that are simply wrong there are good reasons to be sceptical of the now popular and ill informed view that randomization is the only valid and best method on the market it is not share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky modern economics a severe case of model platonism 28 aug 2018 at 09 24 posted in economics 1 comment that is the great thing about abstraction working with what can be called flex price models does not imply that you think price rigidity is unimportant but instead that it can often be ignored if you want to focus on other processes simon wren lewis when applying deductivist thinking to economics mainstream economists like wren lewis usually set up as if models based on a set of tight axiomatic assumptions from which consistent and precise inferences are made the beauty of this procedure is of course that if the axiomatic premises are true the conclusions necessarily follow the snag is that if the models are to be relevant we also have to argue that their precision and rigour still holds when they are applied to real world situations they often do not when addressing real economies the idealizations necessary for the deductivist machinery to work as e g flex price models simply do not hold if the real world is fuzzy vague and indeterminate then why should our models build upon a desire to describe it as precise and predictable the logic of idealization is a marvellous tool in mathematics and axiomatic deductivist systems but a poor guide for action in real world systems in which concepts and entities are without clear boundaries and continually interact and overlap the neoclassical style of thought with its emphasis on thought experiments reflection on the basis of illustrative examples and logically possible extreme cases its use of model construction as the basis of plausible assumptions as well as its tendency to decrease the level of abstraction and similar procedures appears to have had such a strong influence on economic methodology that even theoreticians who strongly value experience can only free themselves from this methodology with difficulty clearly it is possible to interpret the presuppositions of a theoretical system not as hypotheses but simply as limitations to the area of application of the system in question since a relationship to reality is usually ensured by the language used in economic statements in this case the impression is generated that a content laden statement about reality is being made although the system is fully immunized and thus without content in my view that is often a source of self deception in pure economic thought a further possibility for immunizing theories consists in simply leaving open the area of application of the constructed model so that it is impossible to refute it with counter examples this of course is usually done without a complete knowledge of the fatal consequences of such methodological strategies for the usefulness of the theoretical conception in question but with the view that this is a characteristic of especially highly developed economic procedures the thinking in models which however among those theoreticians who cultivate neoclassical thought in essence amounts to a new form of platonism hans albert share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky bad sweden good sweden 26 aug 2018 at 23 36 posted in politics society 3 comments next page recent posts arbetslöshetsiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartw...