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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during January 2019;

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Text of the page (random words):
atch their deductive axiomatic methods with their subject it is sad to say as relevant today as it was twenty years ago it is still a fact that within mainstream economics internal validity is everything and external validity nothing why anyone should be interested in that kind of theories and models is beyond imagination as long as mainstream economists do not come up with any export licenses for their theories and models to the real world in which we live they really should not be surprised if people say that this is not science but autism studying mathematics and logic is interesting and fun it sharpens the mind in pure mathematics and logic we do not have to worry about external validity but economics is not pure mathematics or logic it s about society the real world economics and reality was a great inspiration to yours truly twenty years ago it still is share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky why science is not a game of chance 29 jan 2019 at 15 54 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on why science is not a game of chance if human scientists could be supposed to play a system of analogous games of chance the evidential support available for successful scientific hypotheses could be measured by a pascalian probability function but unfortunately the analogy breaks down at several points the number of co ordinate alternative outcomes that are possible in any one trial of the issue investigated may be infinite indeterminate or at least unknowable and even more importantly the trial outcomes may not be independent of one another in short science is not a game of chance with nature and we can grade enumerative induction by an indifference type pascalian probability only when we are generalizing about outcomes over a selected finite set of trials in a supposedly genuine game of chance hur kan eu återfå medborgarnas förtroende 28 jan 2019 at 11 16 posted in politics society comments off on hur kan eu återfå medborgarnas förtroende efter finanskrisen 2008 har antalet miljardärer nästan fördubblats i världen enligt oxfam sveriges miljardärer sitter idag på förmögenheter som motsvarar ungefär halva sveriges bnp samtidigt har fattigdomen ökat till och med i eu s kärnländer och i sverige ökar den relativa fattigdomen skillnaderna mellan människor blir allt större sedan finanskrisen har regeringarna i samtliga eu länder satt sin budget på svältkur det är både en konsekvens av den nyliberala dogm som råder och att skattebetalare i eu fick hosta upp tusentals miljarder för att rädda bankerna och det finansiella systemet alltfler varnar nu för att en ny finanskris är på väg vem ska ta ansvaret för den staterna är hårt skuldsatta och medborgarnas tålamod är redan hårt prövat efter finanskrisen 2008 ökade möjligheterna för en ny politik i eu eu kommissionen presenterade ett förslag till en skatt på finansiella transaktioner en variant av attacrörelsens tobinskatt en skatt på handeln med aktier derivat och obligationer på 0 01 0 1 procent beräknas kunna ge intäkter på nära 600 miljarder kronor per år ett tiotal eu länder var intresserade men det räckte inte ett sätt att öka intresset för en sådan skatt skulle kunna vara att låta huvuddelen av intäkterna gå till att förstärka medlemsländernas nationella budget medan en del skulle kunna öronmärkas för flyktingmottagning och klimatsatsningar om eu ska kunna återfå medborgarnas förtroende krävs politiker som sätter medborgarnas bästa först inte storföretagen gunilla andersson lars p syll sydsvenska dagbladet beware of health scare stories 27 jan 2019 at 18 56 posted in politics society comments off on beware of health scare stories spiked what is your take on the recent lancet study that claims there is no safe level of alcohol consumption david spiegelhalter this is a huge study that brings together published evidence from nearly 700 other studies it is really about how much people are drinking around the world in this study the claim that there s no safe level of drinking is the weakest part what i do blame the authors for is that they only communicated relative risk lancet guidelines say that the results of risk analyses should always be communicated in terms of absolute risk in other words what does it mean for 1 000 people who drink x amount or don t drink at all the authors didn t do this and there was clearly poor refereeing by the lancet but the lancet s press office bless them did manage to get this data from the authors which has allowed me to do my own calculations using this study s own figures i calculated that 25 000 people would have to consume one drink per day in order for one of them to have a serious alcohol related condition that s the equivalent of consuming 400 000 bottles of gin between them so an extra drink or two is not very dangerous spiked share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky tag der mahnung 27 jan 2019 at 16 10 posted in politics society comments off on tag der mahnung we remember 27 jan 2019 at 12 12 posted in politics society comments off on we remember det svenska skattesystemet 27 jan 2019 at 09 58 posted in politics society 1 comment och så undrar folk hur det kan komma sig att sverige är ett av de länder där inkomst och förmögenhetsskillnader ökar snabbast i världen share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky mervärde i skolan 26 jan 2019 at 17 36 posted in education school comments off on mervärde i skolan hur ska man avgöra hur bra en skola egentligen är att bedöma en skola vars samtliga elever är studiebegåvade studiemotiverade och har starkt föräldrastöd efter samma mall som en skola vars elever kännetecknas av motsatsen är både missvisande och orättvist ett vanligt sätt att hantera denna problematik är att undersöka vilket mervärde en skola ger även om detta är konceptuellt enkelt så finns det stora problem med sådana mätningar en skolas mervärde tas fram genom att undersöka något utfall exempelvis resultat på nationella prov samtidigt som man tar hänsyn till någon typ av ingångsvärde exempelvis resultat på tidigare nationella prov skolans mervärde är den genomsnittliga förändringen av elevernas provresultat ett uppenbart problem med denna ansats är att skolor lärare och elever kan ha incitament att på olika sätt visa sig bättre än vad de egentligen är detta kan ske genom generös provbedömning fusk genom att drilla eleverna på exakt den typ av uppgifter som proven brukar innehålla osv mervärdesmått baserade på prov kan vara värdefulla för att finna problem och styrkor hos lärare skolor och undervisningssätt men det går inte att bortse från att de går att manipulera och att de är långt ifrån ett sammanfattande kvalitetsmått hur allvarliga dessa problem är beror emellertid på hur mervärdesmåtten används och problemen kan antas bli större när starka incitament som knyts till dem hur frustrerande det än må vara så finns det därför anledning att vara försiktig med att styra verksamheter med hjälp av mervärdesanalyser risken är annars att man får vad man betalar för medan man inte får det man inte betalar för jonas vlachos ekonomistas share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky critical rationalism 26 jan 2019 at 16 24 posted in theory of science methodology 3 comments for realists the name of the scientific game is explaining phenomena not just saving them realists typically invoke inference to the best explanation ibe what exactly is the inference in ibe what are the premises and what the conclusion the intellectual ancestor of ibe is peirce s abduction the surprising fact c is observed but if a were true c would be a matter of course hence a is true here the second premise is a fancy way of saying a explains c notice that the explanatory hypothesis a figures in this second premise as well as in the conclusion the argument as a whole does not generate the explanans out of the explanandum rather it seeks to justify the explanatory hypothesis abduction is deductively invalid but there is a way to rescue abduction and ibe what results with the missing premise spelled out is it is reasonable to believe that the best available explanation of any fact is true f is a fact hypothesis h explains f no available competing hypothesis explains f as well as h does therefore it is reasonable to believe that h is true this scheme is valid and instances of it might well be sound inferences of this kind are employed in the common affairs of life in detective stories and in the sciences people object that the best available explanation might be false quite so and so what it goes without saying that any explanation might be false in the sense that it is not necessarily true it is absurd to suppose that the only things we can reasonably believe are necessary truths people object that being the best available explanation of a fact does not prove something to be true or even probable quite so and again so what the explanationist principle it is reasonable to believe that the best available explanation of any fact is true means that it is reasonable to believe or think true things that have not been shown to be true or probable more likely true than not alan musgrave political correctness eroding academic freedom in sweden 26 jan 2019 at 14 11 posted in politics society 1 comment professor emerita inger enkvist of lund university writing in göteborgs posten on 23 september said two trends are challenging open debate at universities these are the trend to protect students against thoughts that question their beliefs or feelings and the tendency to treat gender perspectives as being above science in her article enkvist said that all professors in sweden now are aware that they might be accused of sexism or racism male teachers have to have their doors open when talking to a woman student and counselling rooms at universities are now built with large glass windows so that everybody can observe what is going on for enkvist the concern has been fuelled by a much publicised report by academic rights watch a foundation for monitoring academic freedom in sweden of a student at the medical faculty at lund university criticising a professor of neurophysiology germund hesslow for allegedly saying in a lecture that there might be biological differences between men and women hesslow was called to a meeting of the medical degree programme board at lund university the chair of the board christer larsson requested him to modify two of the statements from the lectures that homosexual women had a male sexual inclination and with regard to transsexualisation whether this is a sexual orientation is a question of definition it is a misunderstanding that this is an exposition of a political agenda hesslow wrote my agenda if it can be characterised as such is to defend the scientific approach that i think has to dominate all work at a university university world news det var en gång en familj 26 jan 2019 at 10 47 posted in politics society comments off on det var en gång en familj frihet är något som många av oss lärt oss ta för givet därför är det desto viktigare att radions p1 dokumentär visar hur fel vi har hedersförtryck tvingar dagligen döttrar och söner att avstå från sin oförytterliga rätt att själva bestämma över sina liv frihet är något vi måste återerövra dag efter dag år efter år är det värt att ta den kampen ja alltid mot dem som i vårt samhälle vill tvinga andra att leva efter deras egna religiösa eller kulturella trosföreställningar och tabun ska samhället vara intolerant mot dem som vill tvinga samhället att anpassa lagar och regler till den egna religionens eller kulturens tolkningar ska samhället vara intolerant mot dem som i handling är intoleranta ska vi inte vara toleranta i ett modernt demokratiskt samhälle måste rule of law gälla alltid och alla share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky is money really neutral in the long run 22 jan 2019 at 22 27 posted in economics 9 comments paul krugman has repeatedly over the years argued that we should continue to use neoclassical hobby horses like is lm and aggregate supply aggregate demand models here s one example so why do as ad we do want somewhere along the way to get across the notion of the self correcting economy the notion that in the long run we may all be dead but that we also have a tendency to return to full employment via price flexibility or to put it differently you do want somehow to make clear the notion which even fairly keynesian guys like me share that money is neutral in the long run i doubt that keynes would have been impressed by having his theory being characterized by catchwords like tendency to return to full employment and money is neutral in the long run one of keynes s central tenets in clear contradistinction to the beliefs of mainstream economists is that there is no strong automatic tendency for economies to move toward full employment levels in monetary economies money doesn t matter in mainstream macroeconomic models but in the real world in which we happen to live money does certainly matter money is not neutral and money matters in both the short run and the long run the theory which i desiderate would deal with an economy in which money plays a part of its own and affects motives and decisions and is in short one of the operative factors in the situation so that the course of events cannot be predicted in either the long period or in the short without a knowledge of the behaviour of money between the first state and the last and it is this which we ought to mean when we speak of a monetary economy j m keynes a monetary theory of production 1933 hidden markov models and bayes theorem for dummies 22 jan 2019 at 15 57 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on hidden markov models and bayes theorem for dummies next page recent posts arbetslöshetssiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant links will not be posted and please remember being a 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