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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during July 2020;

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senaste åren är det den eminente eric schüldt som får mig att hitta nya ljudintryck i dessa tider när ljudrummet dränks i den kommersiella radions tyckmyckentrutade ordbajseri och pubertalflamsande tjafs har man nästan gett upp om att få lyssna på riktig musik i radion men det finns ljus i mörkret i programmet text och musik med eric schüldt som sänds på söndagsförmiddagarna i p2 mellan klockan 11 och 12 kan man lyssna på seriös musik och en programledare som har något att säga och inte bara låter foderluckan glappa att få höra någon med intelligens och känsla tala om saker som vi alla går och bär på djupt inom oss men nästan aldrig vågar prata om är en lisa för själen i en tid många kallar den modern då alla förväntar sig omedelbar behovstillfredsställelse här och nu njuter jag av att få gå och längta efter nästa söndags musikupplevelse och betraktelser över tillvarons mystik tack eric the limited value of economic theory 31 jul 2020 at 11 08 posted in economics 2 comments submission to observed or experimental data is the golden rule which dominates any scientific discipline any theory whatever if it is not verified by empirical evidence has no scientific value and should be rejected maurice allais formalistic deductive glasperlenspiel can be very impressive and seductive but in the realm of science it ought to be considered of little or no value to simply make claims about a model and lose sight of reality in mainstream economics empirical evidence still only plays a minor role and models largely function as a substitute for empirical evidence to have valid evidence is not enough what economics needs is sound evidence the premises of a valid argument do not have to be true but a sound argument on the other hand is not only valid but builds on premises that are true aiming only for validity without soundness is setting the economics aspiration level too low for developing a realist and relevant science the dangers of calling your pet cat a dog 31 jul 2020 at 00 12 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on the dangers of calling your pet cat a dog the assumption of additivity and linearity means that the outcome variable is in reality linearly related to any predictors and that if you have several predictors then their combined effect is best described by adding their effects together this assumption is the most important because if it is not true then even if all other assumptions are met your model is invalid because you have described it incorrectly it s a bit like calling your pet cat a dog you can try to get it to go in a kennel or to fetch sticks or to sit when you tell it to but don t be surprised when its behaviour isn t what you expect because even though you ve called it a dog it is in fact a cat similarly if you have described your statistical model inaccurately it won t behave itself and there s no point in interpreting its parameter estimates or worrying about significance tests of confidence intervals the model is wrong andy field econometrics fails miserably over and over again and not only because of the additivity and linearity assumption another reason why it does is that the error term in the regression models used is thought of as representing the effect of the variables that were omitted from the models the error term is somehow thought to be a cover all term representing omitted content in the model and necessary to include to save the assumed deterministic relation between the other random variables included in the model error terms are usually assumed to be orthogonal uncorrelated to the explanatory variables but since they are unobservable they are also impossible to empirically test and without justification of the orthogonality assumption there is as a rule nothing to ensure identifiability nowadays it has almost become a self evident truism among economists that you cannot expect people to take your arguments seriously unless they are based on or backed up by advanced econometric modelling so legions of mathematical statistical theorems are proved and heaps of fiction are being produced masquerading as science the rigour of the econometric modelling and the far reaching assumptions they are built on is frequently not supported by data man s best friend personal 28 jul 2020 at 18 52 posted in varia comments off on man s best friend personal the youngest member of the meyer syll family hedda and yes ibsen is one of yours truly s favorite dramatists why economics is an impossible science 28 jul 2020 at 10 32 posted in economics 14 comments in a word economics is an impossible science because by its own definition the determining conditions of the economy are not economic they are exogenous supposedly a science of things it is by definition without substance being rather a mode of behavior the application of scarce means to alternative ends so as to achieve the greatest possible satisfaction neither means ends nor satisfaction substantially specified exogenous however is the culture all those meanings values institutions and structures from gender roles race relations food preferences and ethnicities to technical inventions legal regulations political parties etc etc the effect is a never ending series of new theoretical breakthroughs each an economics du jour worthy of a nobel prize consisting of the discovery that some relevant little bit of the culture has something to do with it only to be soon superseded and forgotten since the continuous development and transformation of the culture hence of the economy leaves the science in its wake an impossible science by its own premises marshall sahlins the increasing mathematization of economics has made mainstream economists more or less obsessed with formal deductive axiomatic models confronted with the critique that they do not solve real problems they often react as saint exupéry s great geographer who in response to the questions posed by the little prince says that he is too occupied with his scientific work to be able to say anything about reality confronting economic theory s lack of relevance and ability to tackle real problems one retreats into the wonderful world of economic models one goes into the shack of tools as my old mentor erik dahmén used to say and stays there while the economic problems in the world around us steadily increase one is rather happily playing along with the latest toys in the mathematical toolbox modern mainstream economics is sure very rigorous but if it s rigorously wrong who cares instead of making formal logical argumentation based on deductive axiomatic models the message we are better served by economists who more than anything else try to contribute to solving real problems the motto of john maynard keynes is as valid as ever it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the good the bad and the ugly 27 jul 2020 at 20 02 posted in varia 2 comments ennio morricone 1928 2020 in memoriam halcyon days 27 jul 2020 at 14 26 posted in varia 2 comments spending most of my time nowadays in the shadow of the pandemic at my summer residence in the karlskrona archipelago yours truly has plenty of time enjoying nature s wonders pure energy for the soul economics the new astrology 27 jul 2020 at 08 48 posted in economics comments off on economics the new astrology john weeks 1941 2020 27 jul 2020 at 00 12 posted in economics 2 comments a great economist has passed away r i p it s said that a star falls from heaven each time someone dies 26 jul 2020 at 15 19 posted in varia 2 comments in loving memory of my mother lisbeth lissmark pålsson 1937 1989 nils ferlin was her favorite poet those whom the gods love die young clearly through nights coldness straying with winds music frozen anew dogs in the dark i heard baying as dogs around corpses can do widows i heard wailing wildly and children sobbing for bread stars do not care even mildly if someone is born or is dead piketty and the need for validating assumptions 26 jul 2020 at 13 32 posted in economics 3 comments say we have a diehard neoclassical model assuming the production function is homogeneous of degree one and unlimited substitutability such as the standard cobb douglas production function with a a given productivity parameter and k the ratio of capital stock to labor k l y ak α with a constant investment λ out of output y and a constant depreciation rate δ of the capital per worker k where the rate of accumulation of k δ k λ y δ k equals δ k λ ak α δ k in steady state we have λ ak α δ k giving λ δ k y and k λ a δ 1 1 α putting this value of k into the production function gives us the steady state output per worker level y ak α a 1 1 α λ δ α 1 α assuming we have an exogenous harrod neutral technological progress that increases y with a growth rate g assuming a zero labor growth rate and with y and k a fortiori now being refined as y a and k a respectively giving the production function as y k α we get dk dt λy g δ k which in the cobb douglas case gives dk dt λk α g δ k with steady state value k λ g δ 1 1 α and capital output ratio k y k k α λ g δ if using piketty s preferred model with output and capital given net of depreciation we have to change the final expression into k y k k α λ g λδ now what piketty does in capital in the twenty first century is to predict that g will fall and that this will increase the capital output ratio let s say we have δ 0 03 λ 0 1 and g 0 03 initially this gives a capital output ratio of around 3 if g falls to 0 01 it rises to around 7 7 we reach analogous results if we use a basic ces production function with an elasticity of substitution σ 1 with σ 1 5 the capital share rises from 0 2 to 0 36 if the wealth income ratio goes from 2 5 to 5 which according to piketty is what actually has happened in rich countries during the last forty years being able to show that you can get these results using one or another of the available standard neoclassical growth models and piketty s two crucial assumptions β k y and σ 1 is of course from a realist point of view of rather limited value as usual the really interesting thing is how in accord with reality are the assumptions you make and the numerical values you put into the model specification professor piketty chose a theoretical framework that simultaneously allowed him to produce catchy numerical predictions in tune with his empirical findings while soaring like an eagle above the messy debates of political economists shunned by their own profession s mainstream and condemned diligently to inquire in pristine isolation into capitalism s radical indeterminacy the fact that to do this he had to adopt axioms that are both grossly unrealistic and logically incoherent must have seemed to him a small price to pay yanis varoufakis share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky my friend the forest 26 jul 2020 at 10 00 posted in economics comments off on my friend the forest this one is for you jan milch a friend non plus ultra wayfaring stranger 26 jul 2020 at 09 48 posted in varia comments off on wayfaring stranger la cancel culture aux etats unis 25 jul 2020 at 19 24 posted in politics society 2 comments aux etats unis la nouvelle gauche née des mouvements metoo et black lives matter serait à l origine d un phénomène qui inquiète de nombreux intellectuels américains la cancel culture autrement dit une tendance à vouloir faire taire des voix jugées dissonantes dangereuses ou haineuses né sur les réseaux sociaux ce phénomène se traduit par des mobilisations qui ont fini par provoquer des démissions renvois annulations de conférence etc cinq des auteurs de la tribune que nous publions mark lilla thomas chatterton williams george packer david greenberg et robert worth sont des intellectuels engagés dans la défense de la liberté d expression avec les 150 personnalités qui se sont jointes à leur appel ils estiment qu une frange de la gauche radicale américaine pratiquerait ainsi une forme de censure publié sur le site du mensuel américain harper s ce texte devrait l être également en allemagne en espagne et au japon stéphanie le bars le monde il est vraiment temps de réclamer moins de dogmatisme et plus de débat dans la gauche radicale qui a une tendance de pourchasser ceux qui ne pensent pas comme elle pour yours truly la cancel culture est une nouvelle censure inacceptable why the euro has to be abandoned if europe is to be saved 23 jul 2020 at 10 14 posted in economics politics society 3 comments the euro has taken away the possibility for national governments to manage their economies in a meaningful way and the people have had to pay the true costs of its concomitant misguided austerity policies the unfolding of the repeated economic crises in euroland during the last decade has shown beyond any doubts that the euro is not only an economic project but just as much a political one what the neoliberal revolution during the 1980s and 1990s didn t manage to accomplish the euro shall now force on us but do the peoples of europe really want to deprive themselves of economic autonomy enforce lower wages and slash social welfare at the slightest sign of economic distress are increasing income inequality and a federal überstate really the stuff that our dreams are made of yours truly doubts it history ought to act as a deterrent during the 1930s our economies didn t come out of the depression until the folly of that time the gold standard was thrown on the dustbin of history the euro will hopefully soon join it economists have a tendency to get enthralled by their theories and model and forget that behind the figures and abstractions there is a real world with real people real people that have to pay dearly for fundamentally flawed doctrines and recommendations now more than ever there is a grotesque gap between capitalism s intensifying reproduction problems and the collective energy needed to resolve them this may mean that there is no guarantee that the people who have been so kind as to present us with the euro will be able to protect us from its consequences or will even make a serious attempt to do so the sorcerer s apprentices will be unable to let go of the broom with which they aimed to cleanse europe of its pre modern social and anti capitalist foibles for the sake of a neoliberal transformation of its capitalism the most plausible scenario for the europe of the near and not so near future is one of growing economic disparities and of increasing political and cultural hostility between its peoples as they find themselves flanked by technocratic attempts to undermine democracy on the one side and the rise of new nationalist parties on the other these will seize the opportunity to declare themselves the authentic champions of the growing number of so called losers of moderni...