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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during September 2020;

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theory, of, to, the, syll, game, why, economic, models, recent, comments, lars, rocker, ohne, amputiertes, gehirn, severe, case, model, platonism, fails, live, up, its, promise, je, schlechter, es, deutschland, geht, desto, besser, für, die, afd, rites, what, use, mmt, and, need, for, tax, reforms, evidence, based, policies, argent, sale, how, cope, with, inflation, expected, utility, an, ex, parrot, erik, in, memoriam, personal, do, not, explain, value, economics, cost, benefit, analysis, kriminalitet, och, forskning, posts, policy, reading, list, categories, archives,

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the (291), and (164), that (124), not (79), are (78), och (55), models (55), real (51), for (48), world (48), new (47), share (46), opens (45), window (45), they (44), may (42), assumptions (38), #theory (35), but (33), game (33), have (32), model (32), sep (31), you (31), with (30), bluesky (30), facebook (30), 2020 (29), att (29), economic (29), this (27), economics (25), som (25), when (25), their (23), comments (21), causal (21), what (20), from (20), would (19), make (19), our (19), one (18), experiments (18), economists (17), all (17), can (17), there (17), mar (16), apr (16), jun (16), jan (16), posted (16), only (16), theories (16), any (16), randomization (16), jul (15), aug (15), oct (15), nov (15), dec (15), feb (15), lönebildning (15), arbetslöshet (15), problem (15), more (15), which (15), about (15), such (15), theoretical (15), will (14), mainstream (14), its (14), off (14), way (14), should (14), systems (14), lars (13), 2015 (13), inte (13), like (13), why (13), för (13), made (13), social (13), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2016 (12), 2017 (12), 2018 (12), 2019 (12), 2021 (12), 2022 (12), 2023 (12), 2024 (12), 2025 (12), does (12), rational (12), then (12), most (12), those (12), even (12), other (11), being (11), man (11), rather (11), has (11), value (11), simply (11), explain (11), know (11), 2011 (10), how (10), det (10), detta (10), than (10), much (10), effect (10), cannot (10), possible (10), out (10), find (10), many (10), science (9), under (9), just (9), often (9), theorists (9), system (9), use (9), could (9), based (9), them (9), deductive (9), knowledge (9), expected (9), utility (9), since (9), nothing (8), also (8), claims (8), still (8), die (8), empirical (8), axiomatic (8), heavy (8), kind (8), able (8), law (8), case (8), work (8), both (8), les (8), des (8), true (8), target (8), tax (8), set (8), view (7), syll (7), ett (7), precision (7), den (7), kan (7), till (7), etc (7), without (7), evidence (7), want (7), get (7), auxiliary (7), false (7), these (7), actually (7), between (7), thought (7), relevant (7), although (7), der (7), 2026 (6), econometrics (6), especially (6), guarantee (6), ekonomiska (6), information (6), med (6), socio (6), makes (6), far (6), better (6), making (6), building (6), structural (6), non (6), hold (6), conditions (6), effects (6), apply (6), build (6), balls (6), economies (6), factors (6), usually (6), unrealistic (6), wrong (6), important (6), rates (6), average (6), give (6), income (6), explanations (6), reality (6), afd (6), content (5), society (5), time (5), limited (5), fakta (5), har (5), faktorer (5), down (5), anything (5), given (5), standard (5), logic (5), open (5), possibility (5), cases (5), take (5), choice (5), physics (5), least (5), necessary (5), idealizations (5), long (5), explanatory (5), into (5), supposed (5), different (5), sale (5), galilean (5), core (5), come (5), conclusions (5), pure (5), very (5), laws (5), little (5), really (5), variables (5), air (5), some (5), reach (5), probably (5), parrot (5), 100 (5), argue (5), always (5), inflation (5), help (5), argent (5), best (5), method (5), randomized (5), highly (5), course (5), useful (5), approximations (5), simple (5), applied (5), now (4), varia (4), fred (4), policy (4), sverige (4), mer (4), kunna (4), etnicitet (4), skulle (4), även (4), forskning (4), expectations (4), modelling (4), modern (4), truth (4), instead (4), establish (4), analogue (4), few (4), having (4), logically (4), away (4), show (4), analysis (4), entities (4), sciences (4), predictions (4), were (4), example (4), say (4), deliver (4), something (4), machines (4), phenomena (4), known (4), feathers (4), fact (4), circumstances (4), hard (4), perform (4), galileo (4), nomological (4), beliefs (4), negligible (4), resistance (4), see (4), question (4), sample (4), obviously (4), rigour (4), describe (4), predict (4), taking (4), difficult (4), life (4), right (4), behaviour (4), considered (4), money (4), bank (4), dilemma (4), well (4), here (4), over (4), banques (4), valid (4), never (4), bias (4), inferences (4), who (4), however (4), live (4), policies (4), similar (4), simplicity (4), mechanisms (4), sense (4), result (4), pfleiderer (4), heuristic (4), lüth (4), das (4), wir (4), deductivist (4), successive (4), platonism (4), required (3), bar (3), politics (3), cartwright (3), same (3), credible (3), personal (3), våld (3), måste (3), viktiga (3), andra (3), från (3), minst (3), sarnecki (3), dock (3), men (3), forskare (3), stor (3), när (3), sig (3), värderingar (3), nätverk (3), demand (3), efficient (3), rule (3), things (3), assumption (3), mathematical (3), sure (3), keep (3), hands (3), kinds (3), absurd (3), mathematics (3), facts (3), business (3), believe (3), responsibility (3), impossible (3), contribution (3), don (3), almost (3), cost (3), bodies (3), results (3), alexandrova (3), northcott (3), agents (3), point (3), empirically (3), 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us continuing down its barren paths since individuals obviously do not comply with or are guided by game theory apart from a few notable exceptions it is difficult to find really successful applications of game theory why to a large extent simply because the boundary conditions of game theoretical models are false and baseless from a real world perspective and perhaps even more importantly since they are not even close to being good approximations of real life game theory is lacking predictive power this should come as no surprise as long as game theory sticks to its rational choice foundations there is not much to be hoped for game theorists can of course marginally modify their tool box and fiddle with the auxiliary assumptions to get whatever outcome they want but as long as the rational choice core assumptions are left intact it seems a pointless effort of hampering with an already excessive deductive axiomatic formalism if you do believe in a real world relevance of game theoretical science fiction assumptions such as expected utility common knowledge backward induction correct and consistent beliefs etc etc then adding things like framing cognitive bias and different kinds of heuristics do not solve any problem if we want to construct a theory that can provide us with explanations of individual cognition decisions and social interaction we have to look for something else as noted by northcott and alexandrova applications of game theory have on the whole resulted in massive predictive failures people simply do not act according to the theory they do not know or possess the assumed probabilities utilities beliefs or information to calculate the different subgame tremblinghand perfect nash equilibria they may be reasonable and make use of their given cognitive faculties as well as they can but they are obviously not those perfect and costless hyper rational expected utility maximizing calculators game theory posits and fortunately so being reasonable make them avoid all those made up rationality traps that game theory would have put them in if they had tried to act as consistent players in a game theoretical sense share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky je schlechter es deutschland geht desto besser für die afd 28 sep 2020 at 09 32 posted in politics society comments off on je schlechter es deutschland geht desto besser für die afd dass sich der pressesprecher einer bundestagsfraktion mit einer journalistin in einer bar verabredet um ein offenes und vertrauliches gespräch zu führen ist alltag im berliner regierungsviertel aber das abendessen zu dem sich christian lüth der damalige sprecher der afd fraktion und die rechtslastige youtuberin lisa licentia am 23 februar 2020 in der newton bar in berlin mitte treffen ist alles andere als alltäglich man müsse dafür sorgen sagt lüth dass es der bundesrepublik noch schlechter gehe denn das würde der afd politisch in die hände spielen wenn jetzt alles gut laufen würde dann wäre die afd bei drei prozent wollen wir nicht deshalb müssen wir uns eine taktik überlegen zwischen wie schlimm kann es deutschland gehen und wie viel können wir provozieren zuletzt ergeht lüth sich sogar in gewaltfantasien lisa licentia fragt ihn vor allem klingt das so als ob es in deinem interesse wäre dass noch mehr migranten kommen darauf lüth ja weil dann geht es der afd besser wir können die nachher immer noch alle erschießen das ist überhaupt kein thema oder vergasen oder wie du willst mir egal die zeit share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky rites 26 sep 2020 at 17 23 posted in varia comments off on rites share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky what s the use of economic models 26 sep 2020 at 14 06 posted in economics comments off on what s the use of economic models one can generally develop a theoretical model to produce any result within a wide range do you want a model that produces the result that banks should be 100 funded by deposits here is a set of assumptions and an argument that will give you that result that such a model exists tells us very little being logically correct may earn a place for a theoretical model on the bookshelf but when a theoretical model is taken off the shelf and applied to the real world it is important to question whether the model s assumptions are in accord with what we know about the world to be taken seriously models should pass through the real world filter chameleons are models that are offered up as saying something significant about the real world even though they do not pass through the filter when the assumptions of a chameleon are challenged various defenses are made in many cases the chameleon will change colors as necessary taking on the colors of a bookshelf model when challenged but reverting back to the colors of a model that claims to apply the real world when not challenged paul pfleiderer pfleiderer s absolute gem of an article reminds me of what h l mencken once famously said there is always an easy solution to every problem neat plausible and wrong pfleiderer s perspective may be applied to many of the issues involved when modelling complex and dynamic economic phenomena let me take just one example simplicity simple macroeconom etr ic models may of course be an informative heuristic tool for research but if practitioners of modern macroeconom etr ics do not investigate and make an effort of providing a justification for the credibility of the simplicity assumptions on which they erect their building it will not fullfil its tasks maintaining that economics is a science in the true knowledge business yours truly remains a skeptic of the pretences and aspirations of simple macroeconom etr ic models and theories so far i can t really see that e g simple microfounded models have yielded very much in terms of realistic and relevant economic knowledge all empirical sciences use simplifying or unrealistic assumptions in their modelling activities that is not the issue as long as the assumptions made are not unrealistic in the wrong way or for the wrong reasons being able to model a credible world a world that somehow could be considered real or similar to the real world is not the same as investigating the real world even though as pfleiderer acknowledges all theories are false since they simplify they may still possibly serve our pursuit of truth but then they cannot be unrealistic or false in any way the falsehood or unrealisticness has to be qualified if we cannot show that the mechanisms or causes we isolate and handle in our models are stable in the sense that what when we export them from are models to our target systems they do not change from one situation to another then they considered simple or not only hold under ceteris paribus conditions and a fortiori are of limited value for our understanding explanation and prediction of our real world target system the obvious ontological shortcoming of a basically epistemic rather than ontological approach is that similarity or resemblance tout court do not guarantee that the correspondence between model and target is interesting relevant revealing or somehow adequate in terms of mechanisms causal powers capacities or tendencies if the simplifications made do not result in models similar to reality in the appropriate respects such as structure isomorphism etc the surrogate system becomes a substitute system that does not bridge to the world but rather misses its target many of the model assumptions standardly made in mainstream macroeconomics simplicity being one of them are restrictive rather than harmless and could a fortiori anyway not in any sensible meaning be considered approximations at all if economists aren t able to show that the mechanisms or causes that they isolate and handle in their simple models are stable in the sense that they do not change when exported to their target systems they do only hold under ceteris paribus conditions and are a fortiori of limited value to our understanding explanations or predictions of real economic systems that newton s theory in most regards is simpler than einstein s is of no avail today einstein has replaced newton the ultimate arbiter of the scientific value of models cannot be simplicity share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky mmt and the need for tax reforms 24 sep 2020 at 17 20 posted in economics 3 comments the analytical steps taken in this contribution point to a potential tax reform agenda which would achieve useful macroeconomic and social policy objectives the thumbnail sketch we have provided is intended to provoke others to further consider how tax reforms can serve a dual macroeconomic and social policy purpose for example taxing capital gains at the same rates as in the 1980s and similar moves to restore corporation tax to pre 2010 levels would discourage the diversion of income into company structures which undermines both income tax and potentially the cancellation or withdrawal function of the tax system as a whole generous capital gains tax allowances on buy to let properties that potentially fuel asset inflation and reduce access to affordable homes could be substantially reduced the proceeds from reduced allowances could then be invested in social housing the fact that national insurance charges in the uk apply only to income from work but not investment income also make it a potential target for reform based on the application of similar mmt logics at present those who work for a living pay considerably more tax on identical levels of income than those who receive income as a return on investments of a variety of forms when the saving process is not required to drive investment the socially regressive nature of such policies becomes much clearer andrew baker richard murphy share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky evidence based policies 23 sep 2020 at 17 09 posted in economics comments off on evidence based policies evidence based theories and policies are highly valued nowadays randomization is supposed to control for bias from unknown confounders the received opinion is that evidence based on randomized experiments therefore is the best more and more economists have also lately come to advocate randomization as the principal method for ensuring being able to make valid causal inferences yours truly would however rather argue that randomization just as econometrics promises more than it can deliver basically because it requires assumptions that in practice are not possible to maintain just as econometrics randomization is basically a deductive method given the assumptions such as manipulability transitivity separability additivity linearity etc these methods deliver deductive inferences the problem of course is that we will never completely know when the assumptions are right and although randomization may contribute to controlling for confounding it does not guarantee it since genuine randomness presupposes infinite experimentation and we know all real experimentation is finite and even if randomization may help to establish average causal effects it says nothing of individual effects unless homogeneity is added to the list of assumptions real target systems are seldom epistemically isomorphic to our axiomatic deductive models systems and even if they were we still have to argue for the external validity of the conclusions reached from within these epistemically convenient models systems causal evidence generated by randomization procedures may be valid in closed models but what we usually are interested in is causal evidence in the real target system we happen to live in the point of making a randomized experiment is often said to be that it ensures that any correlation between a supposed cause and effect indicates a causal relation this is believed to hold since randomization allegedly ensures that a supposed causal variable does not correlate with other variables that may influence the effect the problem with that simplistic view on randomization is that the claims made are both exaggerated and false even if you manage to do the assignment to treatment and control groups ideally random the sample selection certainly is except in extremely rare cases not random even if we make a proper randomized assignment if we apply the results to a biased sample there is always the risk that the experimental findings will not apply what works there does not work here randomization hence does not guarantee or ensure making the right causal claim although randomization may help us rule out certain possible causal claims randomization per se does not guarantee anything even if both sampling and assignment are made in an ideal random way performing standard randomized experiments only give you averages the problem here is that although we may get an estimate of the true average causal effect this may mask important heterogeneous effects of a causal nature although we get the right answer of the average causal effect being 0 those who are treated may have causal effects equal to 100 and those not treated may have causal effects equal to 100 contemplating being treated or not most people would probably be interested in knowing about this underlying heterogeneity and would not consider the average effect particularly enlightening there is almost always a trade off between bias and precision in real world settings a little bias often does not overtrump greater precision and most importantly in case we have a population with sizeable heterogeneity the average treatment effect of the sample may differ substantially from the average treatment effect in the population if so the value of any extrapolating inferences made from trial samples to other populations is highly questionable since most real world experiments and trials build on performing one single randomization what would happen if you kept on randomizing forever does not help you to ensure or guarantee that you do not make false causal conclusions in the one particular randomized experiment you actually do perform it is indeed difficult to see why thinking about what you know you will never do would make you happy about what you actually do randomization is not a panacea it is not the best method for all questions and circumstances proponents of randomization make claims about its ability to deliver causal knowledge that is simply wrong there are good reasons to be skeptical of the now popular and ill informed view that randomization is the only valid and best method on the market it is not share on facebook opens in new 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