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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during October 2021;

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krisstöd, gjorde, vinst, miljarder, volvos, carl, henrik, svanberg, försökte, häromdagen, förklara, varför, volvo, vill, betala, tillbaka, permitteringsstöd, företaget, tagit, emot, pandemin, näringslivstopparnas, arrogans, interesting, presents, explains, randomized, controlled, trials, gold, lately, often, portrayed, repeatedly, argued, usually, exportable, religious, belief, portray, hide, granted, generalizable, something, warranty, generally, somewhere, pufendorf, lectures, vaguely, right, precisely, making, message, served, else, try, contribute, solving, motto, john, maynard, keynes, valid, logical, crucial, factual, showing, warrantedly, arguing, premises, true, aren, playing, games, glasperlenspiel, impressive, seductive, realm, ought, little, simply, claims, sight, reality, effectiveness, weakest, arrive, heroic, dramatically, weaken, degree, confidence, final, rigor, contagious, relatively, coming, careful, each, premise, justified, workable, microfoundations, 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ow that the mechanisms or causes that we isolate and handle in our models are stable in the sense that they do not change when we export them to our target systems we have to be able to show that they do not only hold under ceteris paribus conditions and a fortiori only are of limited value to our understanding explanations or predictions of real economic systems real world social systems are not governed by stable causal mechanisms or capacities the kinds of laws and relations that econometrics has established are laws and relations about entities in models that presuppose causal mechanisms being atomistic and additive when causal mechanisms operate in real world social target systems they only do it in ever changing and unstable combinations where the whole is more than a mechanical sum of parts if economic regularities obtain they do it as a rule only because we engineered them for that purpose outside man made nomological machines they are rare or even non existent taking assumptions like utility maximization or market equilibrium as a matter of course leads to the standing presumption in economics that if an empirical statement is deduced from standard assumptions then that statement is reliable the ongoing importance of these assumptions is especially evident in those areas of economic research where empirical results are challenging standard views on economic behaviour like experimental economics or behavioural finance from the perspective of model platonism these research areas are still framed by the superior insights associated with early 20th century concepts essentially because almost all of their results are framed in terms of rational individuals who engage in optimizing behaviour and thereby attain equilibrium for instance the attitude to explain cooperation or fair behaviour in experiments by assuming an inequality aversion integrated in a fraction of the subjects preferences is strictly in accordance with the assumption of rational individuals a feature which the authors are keen to report so while the mere emergence of research areas like experimental economics is sometimes deemed a clear sign for the advent of a new era a closer look at these fields allows us to illustrate the enduring relevance of the model platonism topos and thereby shows the pervasion of these fields with a traditional neoclassical style of thought jakob kapeller contrary to coyle s optimism i would argue that although different empirical approaches have been more or less integrated into mainstream economics there is still a long way to go before economics has become a truly empirical science almost all the change and diversity that takes place in mainstream economics today only takes place within the analytic formalistic modeling strategy that makes up the core of mainstream economics all the flowers that do not live up to the precepts of the mainstream methodological canon are pruned you re free to take your analytical formalist models and apply them to whatever you want as long as you do it using a modeling methodology acceptable to the mainstream if you do not follow this particular mathematical deductive analytical formalism you re not even considered doing economics if it isn t modelled it isn t economics this isn t pluralism it s a methodological reductionist straightjacket no matter how many thousands of models mainstream economists come up with as long as they are just axiomatic variations of the same old mathematical deductive ilk they will not take us one single inch closer to giving us relevant and usable means to further our understanding and explanation of real economies so in conclusion it is not that heterodox critics haven t noticed the development in mainstream economics that has taken place during the past 20 30 years we have noticed and understood that it still far too much builds on the same old neoclassical straight jacket methodology share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky central park 30 oct 2021 at 10 25 posted in varia comments off on central park share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky modelling dangers 29 oct 2021 at 11 19 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on modelling dangers with models it is easy to lose track of three essential points i results depend on assumptions ii changing the assumptions in apparently innocuous ways can lead to drastic changes in conclusions and iii familiarity with a model s name is no guarantee of the model s truth under the circumstances it may be the assumptions behind the model that provide the leverage not the data fed into the model this is a danger with experiments and even more so with observational studies david freedman share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky why economists should prefer accurate imprecision to inaccurate precision 28 oct 2021 at 18 36 posted in economics comments off on why economists should prefer accurate imprecision to inaccurate precision microfounded dsge models standardly assume rational expectations walrasian market clearing unique equilibria time invariance linear separability and homogeneity of both inputs outputs and technology infinitely lived intertemporally optimizing representative household consumer producer agents with homothetic and identical preferences etc etc at the same time the models standardly ignore complexity diversity uncertainty coordination problems non market clearing prices real aggregation problems emergence expectations formation etc etc behavioural and experimental economics not to speak of psychology show beyond any doubts that deep parameters peoples preferences choices and forecasts are regularly influenced by those of other participants in the economy and how about the homogeneity assumption and if all actors are the same why and with whom do they transact and why does economics have to be exclusively teleological concerned with intentional states of individuals where are the arguments for that ontological reductionism and what about collective intentionality and constitutive background rules these are all justified questions so in what way can one maintain that these models give workable microfoundations for macroeconomics science philosopher nancy cartwright gives a good hint at how to answer that question our assessment of the probability of effectiveness is only as secure as the weakest link in our reasoning to arrive at that probability we may have to ignore some issues to make heroic assumptions about them but that should dramatically weaken our degree of confidence in our final assessment rigor isn t contagious from link to link if you want a relatively secure conclusion coming out you d better be careful that each premise is secure going on avoiding logical inconsistencies is crucial in all science but it is not enough just as important is avoiding factual inconsistencies and without showing or at least warrantedly arguing that the assumptions and premises of their models are in fact true mainstream economists aren t really reasoning but only playing games formalistic deductive glasperlenspiel can be very impressive and seductive but in the realm of science it ought to be considered of little or no value to simply make claims about the model and lose sight of reality instead of making the model the message i think we are better served by economists who more than anything else try to contribute to solving real problems and then the motto of john maynard keynes is more valid than ever it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky of what use are rcts 27 oct 2021 at 16 20 posted in economics comments off on of what use are rcts in her interesting pufendorf lectures nancy cartwright presents a theory of evidence and explains why randomized controlled trials rcts are not at all the gold standard that it has lately often been portrayed as as yours truly has repeatedly argued on this blog e g here and here rcts usually do not provide evidence that their results are exportable to other target systems the almost religious belief with which its advocates portray it cannot hide the fact that rcts cannot be taken for granted to give generalizable results that something works somewhere is no warranty for it to work for us or even that it works generally share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky näringslivstopparnas motbjudande arrogans 24 oct 2021 at 18 16 posted in politics society 1 comment volvos carl henrik svanberg försökte häromdagen förklara varför volvo ab inte vill betala tillbaka det permitteringsstöd företaget tagit emot under pandemin svt företagen som fick mest krisstöd gjorde vinst på 43 miljarder ett av de mest arroganta och ur etisk synpunkt motbjudande uttalanden jag någonsin hört från svenskt näringsliv makt korrumperar och förblindar och som lök på laxen har vi en näringsminister som bara låtsas att det regnar istället för att ryta till och slå näven i bordet herre du min milde och detta grodors plums och ankors plask ska man behöva höra år 2021 man tager sig för pannan share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the late estimator a critique wonkish 24 oct 2021 at 11 58 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on the late estimator a critique wonkish one of the reasons guido imbens and joshua angrist were given this year s nobel prize in economics is their late estimator used in instrumental variables estimation of causal effects another prominent nobel prize winner in economics angus deaton is not overly impressed without explicit prior consideration of the effect of the instrument choice on the parameter being estimated such a procedure is effectively the opposite of standard statistical practice in which a parameter of interest is defined first followed by an estimator that delivers that parameter instead we have a procedure in which the choice of the instrument which is guided by criteria designed for a situation in which there is no heterogeneity is implicitly allowed to determine the parameter of interest this goes beyond the old story of looking for an object where the light is strong enough to see rather we have at least some control over the light but choose to let it fall where it may and then proclaim that whatever it illuminates is what we were looking for all along the late may or may not be a parameter of interest to the world bank or the chinese government and in general there is no reason to suppose that it will be i find it hard to make any sense of the late we are unlikely to learn much about the processes at work if we refuse to say anything about what determines the effect parameter θ heterogeneity is not a technical problem calling for an econometric solution but a reflection of the fact that we have not started on our proper business which is trying to understand what is going on of course if we are as skeptical of the ability of economic theory to deliver useful models as are many applied economists today the ability to avoid modeling can be seen as an advantage though it should not be a surprise when such an approach delivers answers that are hard to interpret share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky jános kornai 1928 2021 24 oct 2021 at 10 10 posted in economics comments off on jános kornai 1928 2021 instead of real maturity we see that general equilibrium theory possesses only pseudo maturity for the description of the economic system mathematical economics has succeeded in constructing a formalized theoretical structure thus giving an impression of maturity but one of the main criteria of maturity namely verification has hardly been satisfied in comparison to the amount of work devoted to the construction of the abstract theory the amount of effort which has been applied up to now in checking the assumptions and statements seems inconsequential share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky milton friedman an intellectually dishonest peddler of neoliberalism 24 oct 2021 at 09 59 posted in economics 23 comments last friday november 9 saw the big milton friedman centennial celebration at the university of chicago s becker friedman institute for research in economics it was a big day for fans of one of the founding fathers of neoliberal libertarian free market ideology one episode in milton friedman s career not celebrated or even acknowledged at last week s centennial took place in 1946 the same year friedman began peddling his pro business free market economics ideology according to congressional hearings on illegal lobbying activities 46 was the year that milton friedman and his u chicago cohort george stigler arranged an under the table deal with a washington lobbying executive to pump out covert propaganda for the national real estate lobby in exchange for a hefty payout the terms of which were never meant to be released to the public the arrangement between friedman and stigler with the washington real estate lobbyist was finally revealed during he buchanan committee hearings on illegal lobbying activities in 1950 but then it was almost entirely forgotten including apparently by those celebrating the milton friedman centennial last week in chicago mark ames share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the last resort 23 oct 2021 at 14 49 posted in varia 1 comment one of the most brilliantly beautiful songs ever written in loving memory of my brother peter uncas pålsson share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky all by myself 23 oct 2021 at 14 33 posted in varia comments off on all by myself share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how to achieve exchangeability student stuff 21 oct 2021 at 16 53 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on how to achieve exchangeability student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky pourquoi toutes les marques de luxe sont elles françaises 21 oct 2021 at 14 47 posted in varia 1 comment my favourite french teacher share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky economics non ideological and valu...