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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during July 2023;

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rigorous results this of course makes exporting to real world target systems problematic since these models as part of a deductivist covering law tradition in economics are thought to deliver general and far reaching conclusions that are externally valid but how can we be sure the lessons learned in these theories and models have external validity when based on highly specific unrealistic assumptions as a rule the more specific and concrete the structures the less generalizable the results admitting that we in principle can move from partial falsehoods in theories and models to truth in real world target systems does not take us very far unless a thorough explication of the relation between theory model and the real world target system is made if models assume representative actors rational expectations market clearing and equilibrium and we know that real people and markets cannot be expected to obey these assumptions the warrants for supposing that conclusions or hypotheses of causally relevant mechanisms or regularities can be bridged are obviously non justifiable to have a deductive warrant for things happening in a closed model is no guarantee for them being preserved when applied to an open real world target system henry louis mencken once wrote that there is always an easy solution to every human problem neat plausible and wrong and mainstream economics has indeed been wrong very wrong its main result so far has been to demonstrate the futility of trying to build a satisfactory bridge between formalistic axiomatic deductivist models and real world d target systems assuming for example perfect knowledge instant market clearing and approximating aggregate behaviour with unrealistically heroic assumptions of representative actors just will not do the assumptions made surreptitiously eliminate the very phenomena we want to study uncertainty disequilibrium structural instability and problems of aggregation and coordination between different individuals and groups the punch line is that most of the problems that mainstream economics is wrestling with emanate from its attempts at formalistic modelling per se of social phenomena reducing microeconomics to refinements of hyper rational bayesian deductivist models is not a viable way forward it will only sentence to irrelevance the most interesting real world economic problems and as someone has so wisely remarked murder is unfortunately the only way to reduce biology to chemistry reducing macroeconomics to walrasian general equilibrium microeconomics basically means committing the same crime if scientific progress in economics as robert lucas and other latter days mainstream economists seem to think lies in our ability to tell better and better stories without considering the realm of imagination and ideas a retreat from real world target systems reality one would of course think our economics journal being filled with articles supporting the stories with empirical evidence however i would argue that the journals still show a striking and embarrassing paucity of empirical studies that try to substantiate these theoretical claims equally amazing is how little one has to say about the relationship between the model and real world target systems it is as though thinking explicit discussion argumentation and justification on the subject is not required mainstream economic theory is obviously navigating in dire straits if the ultimate criteria for the success of a deductivist system is to what extent it predicts and coheres with parts of reality modern mainstream economics seems to be a hopeless misallocation of scientific resources to focus scientific endeavours on proving things in models is a gross misapprehension of what an economic theory ought to be about deductivist models and methods disconnected from reality are not relevant to predict explain or understand real world economic target systems these systems do not conform to the restricted closed system structure the mainstream modelling strategy presupposes the mainstream economic theory still today consists mainly in investigating economic models empirical evidence still only plays a minor role in mainstream economic theory where models largely function as substitutes for empirical evidence what is wrong with mainstream economics is not that it employs models per se but that it employs poor models they are poor because they do not bridge the real world target system in which we live hopefully humbled by the manifest failure of its theoretical pretences the one sided almost religious insistence on mathematical deductivist modelling as the only scientific activity worthy of pursuing in economics will give way to methodological pluralism based on ontological considerations rather than formalistic tractability share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky nothing compares to you 27 jul 2023 at 09 07 posted in varia comments off on nothing compares to you shuhada sadaqat known professionally as sinéad o connor 1966 2023 rip share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky universalism vs woke racism 25 jul 2023 at 15 11 posted in politics society comments off on universalism vs woke racism you may argue that theory is secondary of course woke activists seek solidarity justice and progress their struggles against discrimination are animated by those ideas but they fail to see that the theories they embrace subvert their own goals without universalism there is no argument against racism merely a bunch of tribes jockeying for power and if that s what political history comes to there s no way to maintain a robust idea of justice but without commitments to increasing universal justice we cannot coherently strive for progress most woke activists reject universalism and stand by discourses of power but they re unlikely to deny they seek progress it would be easier to believe them if they were willing to acknowledge what some forms of progress had achieved in the past showing how each previous step forward led to two twisted steps back can be intellectually dazzling there are enough instances of injustice to unmask so that several lifetimes won t suffice to do it but without hope for putting something else in its place such unmasking becomes an empty exercise in showing your savvy you won t get fooled again share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky poverty in britain 24 jul 2023 at 11 10 posted in politics society comments off on poverty in britain 1 in 4 people in the uk live below the poverty line around 15 million people were living in poverty in 2021 2022 according to the government s annual households below average income report that is outrageous share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the difference between logic and science 23 jul 2023 at 12 07 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on the difference between logic and science that logic should have been thus successful is an advantage which it owes entirely to its limitations whereby it is justified in abstracting indeed it is under obligation to do so from all objects of knowledge and their differences leaving the understanding nothing to deal with save itself and its form but for reason to enter on the sure path of science is of course much more difficult since it has to deal not with itself alone but also with objects logic therefore as a propaedeutic forms as it were only the vestibule of the sciences and when we are concerned with specific modes of knowledge while logic is indeed presupposed in any critical estimate of them yet for the actual acquiring of them we have to look to the sciences properly so called that is to the objective sciences in mainstream economics both logic and mathematics are used extensively and most mainstream economists sure look upon themselves as twice blessed is there any scientific ground for that blessedness none whatsoever if scientific progress in economics lies in our ability to tell better and better stories one would of course expect economics journals being filled with articles supporting the stories with empirical evidence confirming the predictions however the journals still show a striking and embarrassing paucity of empirical studies that try to substantiate these predictive claims equally amazing is how little one has to say about the relationship between the model and real world target systems it is as though explicit discussion argumentation and justification on the subject aren t considered to be required in mathematics the deductive axiomatic method has worked just fine but science is not mathematics conflating those two domains of knowledge has been one of the most fundamental mistakes made in modern economics applying it to real world open systems immediately proves it to be excessively narrow and hopelessly irrelevant both the confirmatory and explanatory ilk of hypothetico deductive reasoning fails since there is no way you can relevantly analyse confirmation or explanation as a purely logical relation between hypothesis and evidence or between law like rules and explananda in science we argue and try to substantiate our beliefs and hypotheses with reliable evidence propositional and predicate deductive logic on the other hand is not about reliability but the validity of the conclusions given that the premises are true share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky a night at the roxbury 22 jul 2023 at 23 43 posted in varia comments off on a night at the roxbury share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky la teoría de juegos una nota al pie en la historia de las ciencias sociales 22 jul 2023 at 15 02 posted in economics comments off on la teoría de juegos una nota al pie en la historia de las ciencias sociales siendo en su corazón una subdisciplina dentro de las matemáticas puras los teóricos de juegos no están demasiado preocupados por si la teoría de los juegos representa fenómenos del mundo real bien pero como la mayoría de los científicos sociales tienen una opinión diferente los teóricos de juegos también deben aceptar que para la mayoría de los científicos sociales la teoría de juegos se considera inútil para explicar la interacción entre individuos en el mundo real de acuerdo con morgenstern 1964 8 la teoría de juegos fue diseñada para dar significado a lo que el sentido común llama vagamente comportamiento racional es difícil concordar la teoría de juegos puede ser muy rigurosa pero ciertamente también tiene muchas carencias y defectos evidentes como claramente lo demuestra el famoso dilema del prisionero la teoría de juegos tiene profundos problemas para explicar los hechos sociales con sus modelos de elección racional individualistas y egocéntricos vea luce y raiffa 1957 rapoport y chammah 1965 kreps 1990 axelrod 1984 la interacción social no puede ser descrita exhaustivamente como interacción estratégica las regularidades de comportamiento planteadas no son más que generalizaciones ilegítimas basadas en dar por sentado que una teoría que sea capaz de explicar tiene que ser una teoría universal con un dominio ilimitado siempre y cuando se cumplan los supuestos básicos de racionalidad sin otras formas de interacción la sociedad tal como la conocemos no sería posible quizás esta es la única utilidad real si la hay de la teoría de juegos muestra los severos límites de la elección racional y la interacción estratégica para explicar la interacción social el verdadero desafío en las ciencias sociales es aceptar la incertidumbre y aún tratar de explicar por qué tienen lugar diferentes tipos de transacciones e interacciones sociales simplemente hacer desaparecer los problemas asumiendo cosas claramente irreales y tratar la incertidumbre como si fuera posible reducir a riesgo estocástico es como jugar tenis con la red baja ese no es el tipo de juego que los científicos que trabajan en la construcción de una ciencia relevante y realista quieren jugar hace medio siglo había esperanzas generalizadas de que la teoría de juegos proporcionaría una teoría unificada de las ciencias sociales hoy se ha hecho evidente que esas esperanzas no se materializaron esto no debería ser una sorpresa los modelos reduccionistas y atomistas de interacción social como en los que se basan la economía convencional y la teoría de juegos nunca proporcionarán cimientos sostenibles para una ciencia social realista y relevante esa es también la razón por la cual la teoría de juegos nunca será nada más que una nota al pie en la historia de las ciencias sociales lars syll debate económico share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky on the art of reading and writing 22 jul 2023 at 13 26 posted in varia 1 comment how should one approach reading it s probably a common pondering that everyone has had at some point about our attitude towards literature and reading i myself find reason to contemplate this when my beloved who tirelessly devours new books at a rapid pace once again tries to persuade me to put back august strindberg s röda rummet hjalmar söderberg s martin bircks ungdom or selma lagerlöf s gösta berlings saga in the library and try a new book for once for her it s incomprehensible that anyone would even consider re reading a novel when there is so much undiscovered and new material to delve into in the wonderful world of literature for her and surely many other book enthusiasts it s only fools who wholeheartedly engage in constant re readings but let me still try to defend us fools i ll turn to a book that i yes you guessed it have read over and over again what happens when we read the eye follows black letters on the white paper from left to right again and again and creatures nature or thoughts as another has imagined recently or a thousand years ago come to life in our imagination it is a miracle greater than a grain of wheat from the pharaohs tombs being able to sprout and it happens every moment when we read for the second time it s like reading a biography of death or seeing our life just before we leave it now it becomes clear why that experience in the first chapter made such a strong impression on the heroine it actually determined her life a pattern emerges what was incomprehensible becomes simple and understandable now we can also just as we do when we remember our own lives pause at particularly beautiful and meaningful passages we don t need to rush because we know the continuation no worry about the future prevents us from enjoying the present i have read...