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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during September 2023;

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t test any hypothesis nor do they measure the significance of results or the confidence we should have in them the sense otherwise is an ongoing cultural error perpetuated by large segments of the statistical and research community via evocative terminology such as statistical significance and confidence interval for what are only dichotomous p value summaries p values and cis can only become contextually interpretable when derived explicitly from causal stories about the real data generator such as randomization and can only become reliable when those stories are based on valid and public documentation of the physical mechanisms that generated the data absent these assurances traditional interpretations of inferential statistics become pernicious fictions that need to be replaced by far more circumspect descriptions of data and model relations sander greenland share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky bostadsbubblan på väg att spricka 25 sep 2023 at 19 10 posted in economics 1 comment svenska hushåll är idag högt skuldsatta och på senare år har hushållens skulder ökat snabbare än både bnp och de disponibla inkomsterna orsakerna är främst en lång period med historiskt låga räntor och stigande bostadspriser hushållens skulder består till övervägande delen av bolån det genomsnittliga kvadratmeterpriset på bostadsrätter i sverige har under de senaste 25 åren stigit med mer än 800 procent villapriserna med mer än 400 procent på så vis har hushållen dragit på sig mer än 1000 miljarder i bolån prisuppgången på bostäder i sverige dessa 25 år varit nästintill unik i världen detta till trots är det bara några få av oss nationalekonomer som på allvar försökt lyfta den här frågan och pekat på farorna för det mesta har vi mötts med den vanliga dryga etablissemangstystnaden de svenska hushållen har under flera år trott på en fortsatt uppgång för bostadspriserna det har alla boprisindikator kontinuerligt visat under flera år nu detta innebär också att svenskarna har fortsatt att låna mer och mer för att köpa bostäder och ytterligare spä på en redan astronomiskt hög skuldvolym varje sansad bedömare inser att detta är problem som måste lösas innan bostadsbubblan spricker i annat fall är det hög risk för att låt gå politiken kommer att gå igen som svinhugg och då är det de arbetslösa bostadslösa och skuldsatta som får ta smällarna hushållens skuldsättning bottnar främst i den ökning av tillgångsvärden som letts av ökad långivning till hushållen och den därav uppkomna bostadsbubblan på lång sikt är det självklart inte möjligt att bibehålla denna trend tillgångspriserna avspeglar i grunden förväntningar om framtida avkastning på investeringar om tillgångspriserna fortsätter öka snabbare än inkomsterna blir effekten ökad inflation med vidhängande nedjustering av tillgångarnas realvärde anta att du har en summa pengar a som du vill investera du kan antingen sätta in pengarna på banken och få en årlig ränta r på pengarna om vi för enkelhetens skull bortser från eventuella risker tillgångsdepreciering och transaktionskostnader ska ra motsvara den inkomst jag alternativt skulle kunna erhålla om jag istället köper ett hus med en insats på a och hyr ut mitt hus under ett år till en hyra på h plus förändringen i huspriset dhp dvs 1 ra h dhp dividerar vi båda sidor med huspriset hp får vi 2 hp h r a hp dhp hp om du förväntar dig att huspriserna hp ska stiga så kommer priset på huset att stiga den här typen av självgenererande kumulativ process är kärnan i själva bobubblan till skillnad från vanliga varumarknader där efterfrågekurvan i regel är nedåtlutande har vi på tillgångsmarknader ofta en efterfrågekurva som är uppåtlutande och därigenom ger upphov till den här typen av icke stabilitet notera också att ju större hävstångseffekter vi har ju lägre a hp ju större blir prisstegringen med en egeninsats på 20 kan du köpa ett hus som är värt 100 hävstången är 5 och om priset på bostaden stiger 10 ökar dina tillgångar med 50 men om priset på bostaden sjunker med 10 minskar å andra sidan dina tillgångar med 50 när tillgångspriser väl börjar sjunka ger de höga hävstängerna upphov till en kumulativ prissänkningsprocess där ökad osäkerhet och volatilitet snabbt leder till ökade krav på säkerheter och egeninsatser bostadsbubblan spricker och krisen står för dörren vad bör göras den amerikanske riksbankschefen under 1950 och 1960 talen william mcchesney martin lär skämtsamt ha sagt att en centralbanks främsta uppgift är att se till att ta bort bålskålen när festen börjar komma igång festen har pågått alldeles för länge redan för att undvika en bokrasch motsvarande den i usa för tio år sedan krävs krafttag av riksbank och regering att som vissa mäklare och banker med vested interests bagatellisera bobubblan förvärrar bara smällen när den väl kommer det är djupt bekymmersamt att svenska hushåll med bankernas goda minne fått ta på sig så stora lån som man gjort de senaste 25 åren med den skuldkvot vi ser hushållen tagit på sig riskerar vi få en skulddeflationskris som kommer att slå oerhört hårt mot svenska hushåll med de nu kraftigt stigande räntorna kommer flera hushåll tvingas att sälja sin bostäder eftersom de helt enkelt inte har råd att bo kvar detta i sin tur skapar ett utbudsöverskott på marknaden vilket leder prisras sämre framtidsförväntningar och med tiden ännu större press nedåt på bostadspriserna bobubblan spricker och kraschen är ett faktum share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky better than diff in diff 24 sep 2023 at 11 11 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on better than diff in diff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky jazz på svenska 23 sep 2023 at 17 42 posted in varia comments off on jazz på svenska anders och jens johansson är söner till legendaren jan johansson för några år sedan bestämde sig bröderna för att ge sig ut på turné där de tolkar jans låtar från jazz på svenska i torsdags kom de till malmö och gav en oförglömlig konsert på palladium share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how to avoid pernicious fictional statistics 21 sep 2023 at 11 03 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on how to avoid pernicious fictional statistics mathematics is a limited component of solutions to real world problems as it expresses only what is expected to be true if all our assumptions are correct including implicit assumptions that are omnipresent and often incorrect statistical methods are rife with implicit assumptions whose violation can be life threatening when results from them are used to set policy among them are that there is human equipoise or unbiasedness in data generation management analysis and reporting these assumptions correspond to levels of cooperation competence neutrality and integrity that are absent more often than we would like to believe given this harsh reality we should ask what meaning if any we can assign to the p values statistical significance declarations confidence intervals and posterior probabilities that are used to decide what and how to present or spin discussions of analyzed data by themselves p values and ci do not test any hypothesis nor do they measure the significance of results or the confidence we should have in them the sense otherwise is an ongoing cultural error perpetuated by large segments of the statistical and research community via misleading terminology so called inferential statistics can only become contextually interpretable when derived explicitly from causal stories about the real data generator such as randomization and can only become reliable when those stories are based on valid and public documentation of the physical mechanisms that generated the data absent these assurances traditional interpretations of statistical results become pernicious fictions that need to be replaced by far more circumspect descriptions of data and model relations sander greenland all science entails human judgment and using statistical models does not relieve us of that necessity working with misspecified models the scientific value of significance testing is actually zero even though you re making valid statistical inferences statistical models and concomitant significance tests are no substitutes for doing real science in its standard form a significance test is not the kind of severe test that we are looking for in our search for being able to confirm or disconfirm empirical scientific hypotheses this is problematic for many reasons one being that there is a strong tendency to accept the null hypothesis since it can t be rejected at the standard 5 significance level and as shown over and over again when it is applied people have a tendency to read not disconfirmed as probably confirmed the excessive reliance on significance testing in science is disturbing and should be fought but it is also important to put significance testing abuse in perspective the real problem in today s social sciences is not significance testing per se no the real problem has to do with the often unqualified and mechanistic application of statistical methods to real world phenomena without having even the slightest idea of how the assumptions behind the statistical models condition and severely limit the value of the inferences made share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky econometrics a mixture of metaphors metaphysics and a pinch of bluff 19 sep 2023 at 16 17 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on econometrics a mixture of metaphors metaphysics and a pinch of bluff this effort to create foundations for the probability approach in econometrics finally results in an inconsistent set of claims in its defence first there are vast amounts of experience which warrant a frequency interpretation this is supported by repetitive discussions of experimental design but the inability to experiment inspires an epistemological interpretation then haavelmo mentions the futility of bothering with these issues because the probability approach is most of all a useful tool this would be an instrumentalistic justification for its use if haavelmo gave supportive evidence for his claim there is not one example which attempts to do so in practice econometricians mostly have to do without experiments from the early days on they tried to provide stand ins for real experimentation first it was argued that economic models themselves could substitute as alternatives to experiments however this was not intended so much as to justify probabilistic inference but as primarily to level economics with the experimental sciences then haavelmo introduced his version of experimental design in order to make economic theories statistically operational again this could not provide the justification for using the probabilistic framework the founders of econometrics tried to adapt the sampling approach to a non experimental small sample domain they tried to justify this with a priori and analytical arguments however the ultimate argument for a probability approach in econometrics consists of a mixture of metaphors metaphysics and a pinch of bluff as always if people do not give justifications for the validity of the assumptions they make well then those assumptions are nothing but assumptions just talking about as did haavelmo experimental design hoping that nature takes care of the necessary ceteris paribus conditions and believing it fruitful to treat economic data as if they were a set of truly random data does not take us very far treating observational data as if they were experimental is nothing but wishful thinking based on a totally unwarranted assumption bridging from econometric and statistical models to real world target systems demands much more most of all you have to not just rhetorically search for the real data generating mechanisms the assumptions of imaginary super populations or hypothetical infinite populations are some of the many dubious assumptions used in modern econometrics as social scientists and economists we have to confront the all important question of how to handle uncertainty and randomness should we define randomness with probability if we do we have to accept that to speak of randomness we also have to presuppose the existence of nomological probability machines since probabilities cannot be spoken of and actually to be strict do not at all exist without specifying such system contexts accepting a domain of probability theory and sample space of infinite populations also implies that judgments are made on the basis of observations that are actually never made infinitely repeated trials or samplings never take place in the real world so that cannot be a sound inductive basis for a science with aspirations of explaining real world socio economic processes structures or events it s not tenable and as if this wasn t enough one could as argued also seriously wonder what kind of populations these statistical and econometric models ultimately are based on why should we as social scientists and not as pure mathematicians working with formal axiomatic systems without the urge to confront our models with real target systems unquestioningly accept models based on concepts like the infinite superpopulations used in e g the potential outcome framework that has become so popular lately in social sciences of course one could treat observational or experimental data as random samples from real populations i have no problem with that at least not as long as one remembers that usually the random sampling assumptions do not apply to the kind of convenience samples that economic data standardly constitute and that the usual statistical inferences therefore can not be made however probabilistic econometrics does not content itself with that kind of population instead it creates imaginary populations of parallel universes and assumes that our data are random samples from that kind of infinite superpopulations but this is actually nothing else but hand waving and it is inadequate for real science in social sciences including economics it s always wise to ponder c s peirce s remark that universes are not as common as peanuts nowadays it has almost become a self evident truism among economists that you cannot expect people to take your arguments seriously unless they are based on or backed up by advanced econometric modelling so legions of mathematical statistical theorems are proved and heaps of fiction are being produced masquerading as science the rigour of the econometric modelling and the far reaching assumptions they are built on are frequently not supported by data modelling assumptions made in stati...