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fe i mean at least as safe and hopefully much safer than if i drove myself in my vision self driving cars are ubiquitous and share the roads with human driven cars now we have the current state of the art in self driving cars and a vision for the future state what s left is projecting how long it will take to get from state a to state b for that we need to do some more work if 16 isn t old enough in equivalent human years for self driving cars to achieve the vision then how old is old enough it is well known that 16 to 19 year olds have the highest rates of accidents where people are injured or killed we should stay out of that age range therefore i say that self driving cars need to get to 19 human equivalent years of maturity that leaves 3 more human equivalent years to go this leaves the question of mapping human equivalent years into self driving car development years we know it is going to be much more than 3 years before self driving cars are unleashed on the general roadways so it is more than 1 to 1 but does 1 human equivalent year equal 3 self driving car development years 5 10 20 fortunately we have a data point in the past to help answer that question that data point is the 2004 darpa grand challenge you can find the rules to that year s challenge online but in summary the cars had to drive over desert roads while following a rudimentary electronic map without human assistance and without traffic on the roads at the time of the 2004 challenge i wrote the task itself seems so simple any human with a 5 000 atv could do it looking back i would say these cars were about as good as a 15 year old human that just got their learner s permit it s been 16 years since that darpa grand challenge and self driving cars have advanced about 1 human year that means a human equivalent year in self driving car development time equals 16 calendar years multiplying this by the three human equivalent years to go gives 48 calendar years before self driving cars will achieve my vision at this point i know you are thinking 42 years is a very long time there is no way it is going to be 42 years before self driving cars are ubiquitous on our roads to that i say not so fast the self driving car folks have already been at it 14 years that s an eternity in technical revolution time google went from a dorm room to world domination in less than 10 years google was founded in 1998 by larry page and sergey brin while they were ph d students at stanford university in california an initial public offering ipo took place on august 19 2004 furthermore the self driving car companies have been riding the wave of ever increasing computing power over the last 14 years unfortunately the semiconductor revolution is getting long in the tooth moore said years ago that moore s law no longer holds true individual microprocessors are not getting much faster any more of course computers are increasingly networked and that increases aggregate computing power by summing over many individual computers unfortunately self driving cars do not have the luxury of going to the cloud when they must make critical decisions these decisions need to be made in tiny fractions of seconds going to the cloud for computing power is not going to do the trick for real time decision making when the vehicle is going sixty miles per hour finally an unfortunate reality putting the brakes on the adoption of self driving cars is that changes in the automobile industry move at a snail s pace the original prius debuted on the market in 2000 that s 18 years ago today just 2 of car sales in the us are hybrids and electric only vehicles are a smaller percentage than that i know the potential to save lives should be pushing the self driving car technology but the potential to save the world isn t pushing the adoption of hybrid or electric cars all that fast feb 12 2020 what is the state of the art in self driving cars to answer this question at least at a macro level i look at two examples of self driving car projects one in industry and one in academia in the self driving car industry there is nothing more state of the art than waymo we ll start there after that we ll look at a recent project conducted by the computer science and artificial intelligence lab massachusetts institute of technology mit and presented at the 2018 international conference on robotics and automation it doesn t get much brighter than that in the research community as is widely known waymo originated as a project at google in 2009 and eventually became its own subsidiary waymo has also made no secret of its plan to roll out an autonomous ride hailing business in phoenix arizona in late 2018 in preparation for the roll out waymo is amassing enormous databases filled with real world experiences recorded during actual driving experiences on the phoenix streets in addition to these recordings the company has also created detailed maps the cars reference while they drive i m sure anyone that has lived in the area can attest that phoenix has almost perpetual clear driving weather it only gets about 8 inches of rain per year and the last time they had measurable snow at the phoenix sky harbor international airport was in the 1930 s i am sure waymo is confident their cars will operate safely but don t forget they have greatly constrained the environment these cars will operate under the cars will be operating in good weather and on roads with which they have a lot of experience driving does that sound familiar it does to me those were the rules when my kids got their driver s licenses at 16 they could only drive on very familiar roads and then only in clear weather why did my wife and i constrain their driving like this because that was what we thought was safe at least from this perspective waymo is about at the driving prowess of a 16 year old with a freshly minted license the next data point comes from the research community specifically mit this group wrote about their project in a paper titled autonomous vehicle navigation in rural environments without detailed prior maps as i mentioned above the waymo cars continuously reference detailed maps while they drive and detailed means detailed these detailed maps know where the stop signs are the traffic signals construction zones etc they are far more detailed than the kinds of maps most of us are familiar with the mit group on the other hand did not use these detailed maps because they do not exist for most roads their goal was to develop technology enabling self driving cars to operate with access only to widely available standard definition electronic maps to that end the mit group used maps from the open map project which are very much like google or apple maps and that s what the mit group demonstrated their research and development demonstrated that self driving cars could drive on rural roads while following standard electronic maps i will also note that this demonstration was in a highly constrained environment the demonstration operated the cars in clear weather on rural roads without much if any other traffic around the cars could operate safely on open rural roads while following electronic maps i would say that too is about at the skill level of a 16 year old when they first get their driver s license i m guessing the self driving car companies would feel this analysis under estimates the prowess of their self driving cars they would tell you that the real problem is the 16 year old human drivers on the road that may be so but it will be many decades 5 before human drivers are off the roads besides i haven t really presented an analysis this is more of an observation it is based on two state of the art data points from the self driving car world my own experiences teaching my kids to drive and framed by the perspective of 30 years in the field of robotics and automation the state of the art in self driving cars reminds me of my kids driving when the first got their licenses at 16 july 11 2019 overselling technology i just rewatched an old ted talk on youtube where a guys talks about google s driverless cars the video is interesting enough the guy does a good job of talking about how hard the problem is unfortunately at the end he makes a completely self serving proclamation that his team s goal is for his son not to need a driver s license in 4 5 years guess when the ted talk was published june 26 2015 does anyone think that people are not going to need driver s licenses within the next half year of course not one of the things i ve learned over the years is the more salesmen oversell their technology the further they are from solving the problem at hand driverless cars are nowhere near ready to make cars with drivers obsolete i m going to write more about this october 11 2018 baxter bites the dust baxter was one of the two original cobot robot manipulators a company called rethink robotics out of mit designed manufactured and sold baxters universal robots is the other original cobot company cobot abbreviates collaborative robots i will agree these were the first cobots since that s when the word was invented but i certainly don t agree these were the first examples of companies making collaborative robots i m going to write a new page about cobots and collaborative robots but for now here is a brief thought on baxter that isn t getting as much press baxter was a piece of junk it was so bad mechanically that it was incapable of all but the most trivial tasks the promotional videos for baxter would show it moving plastic cups from a conveyor belt to a box not because that is impressive but because a plastic cup was all baxter could lift i felt sorry for the thing it shook so badly when it moved that i could barely watch people at trade shows laughed at it when these crummy mechanicals were being designed the computer scientists at rethink thought their control algorithms would take care of the issues this is an arrogant misconception among many engineers in the computing disciplines once crummy mechanicals have been built into a robot that robot is doomed i don t care how fancy the control algorithms are baxter was also promoted as being inherently safe though that is not generally true of cobots this was true of baxter only because it was too weak and too slow to hurt anything which of course also made it unable to do anything except move cups around slowly the notion that a robot has to be weak and slow to be safe is pathetic i m glad baxter is gone good riddance to bad rubbish september 25 2018 are the self driving car companies that concerned about saving lives watch chris urmson s ted talk or listen to just about anything from the self driving car companies and you will hear heart felt attestation of their concern for human safety in his talk chris says if we can just cut the accidents in half with self driving cars it will be all worth it of course that means the public must wait for the roll out of driverless cars to get those safety benefits this is a patently false precondition as i will discuss below we can cut traffic fatalities in half with existing technology furthermore it will be far less expensive and can be deployed much more quickly than driverless cars why aren t the self driving car companies pushing solutions like these if they are so concerned about saving humans from the horrors of car crashes let s look at the top three causes of traffic fatalities based on data from the insurance institute for highway safety and the national highway transportation safety administration 1 speeding 30 6 2 drunk driving 31 1 3 distracted driving 16 i ll now discuss these in order speeding eliminating virtually all accidents associated with speeding is entirely doable with existing technology simply enforce speeding laws automatically most driving in this country and i m going to guess at least 90 now happens in areas that are electronically mapped the speed limits where cars are driving are known cars should be programmed to ignore requests by the driver to exceed the posted speed we could allow drivers to exceed the posted speed briefly for safe passing and the like but that s it as a first step all cars sold in this country should be equipped with a governor that will not allow the car to go faster the 85 mph as i ve written before why on earth will my wife s honda go 120 mph it is not legal to drive that fast in this country anywhere why is it legal to sell a car that will go that fast machine guns are illegal everywhere in this country and it is illegal to sell machines anywhere in this country the same should be true for cars capable of exceeding 85 mph automatic control of speeding is something the self driving car companies should be able to get behind one of the visions behind the self driving car future is that cars will be networked they will know each other s driving paths and intentions and use this information to eliminate accidents and efficiently utilize driving surfaces networking cars like this requires automatically communicating real time data to cars and the cars then responding to the data how about as a first step we start communicating speed limit data to cars and the cars can respond by ignoring driver inputs that ask it to exceed the speed limit drunk driving i don t know that all drunk and drugged driving can be eliminated as long as people are driving cars but existing technology can certainly substantially reduce the problem drunk drivers and drivers on other drugs exhibit known behaviors while they drive for example they swerve in their lanes police are trained to spot these behaviors the brains in existing cars can also be taught to identify these markers it s not clear to me at this point what the car should do after it has identified a potentially impaired driver maybe limit the speed to 25 mph i would also be fine in the car notified the police distracted driving the easiest one to attack here is smart phones user input to smart phones should be disabled in moving cars this is 100 doable by downloading new software into the phones we don t even need to change hardware we should demand the smart phone companies do this immediately unfortunately people seem uninterested in doing that but eventually people should get tired of their loved ones being killed because of smart phones i suppose that could generate a groundswell of support that would force the issue more likely it will be resolved in litigation and then government decree there we go if we do these three things we can cut driving fatalities in half why aren t the self driving car companies screaming about this is it because they care more about making dollars than saving lives i d like to see them prove that wrong by supporting simple changes that will save tens of thousands of lives in the interim while they are developing their self driving car technologies september 13 2018 darpa robot race begins at stake is a 1 million first prize i can t help re running t...