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the arena for accountable predictions long bets sign in register to participate the purpose of long bets is to improve long term thinking long bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions of interest to society with philanthropic money at stake the long now foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution this website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes more the rules of long bets bets predictions on the record make a prediction about long bets faq answers featured bet duration 4 years 02017 02020 a bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than dec 31 02020 predictor martin rees challenger steven pinker stakes 400 will go to givewell if rees wins or givewell if pinker wins review and discuss this bet more bets featured prediction duration 9 years 02020 02030 by 2030 half of the uk adult population will be vegan predictor dale vince challenger challenge vince to a bet review and discuss this prediction more predictions home the rules bets predictions make a prediction about faq contact us