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mathematical investor mathematical investor mathematicians against fraudulent financial and investment advice maffia comments posts maffia org website backtest demo tenure maker demo selection bias video overview essays news disclaimer and copyright book reviews categories book reviews disclaimer and copyright essays news overview archives november 2025 august 2025 march 2025 february 2024 december 2023 october 2023 july 2023 march 2023 february 2023 january 2023 october 2022 august 2022 march 2022 february 2022 january 2022 november 2021 june 2021 february 2021 december 2020 october 2020 july 2020 june 2020 april 2020 january 2020 december 2019 november 2019 october 2019 september 2019 july 2019 june 2019 may 2019 april 2019 march 2019 february 2019 january 2019 november 2018 september 2018 august 2018 july 2018 june 2018 may 2018 april 2018 march 2018 january 2018 december 2017 october 2017 september 2017 august 2017 july 2017 december 2015 october 2015 september 2015 june 2015 april 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 artificial intelligence nirvana or apocalypse google data center in ohio artificial intelligence s march of progress without doubt artificial intelligence ai and machine learning ml systems have scored numerous remarkable successes over the past few years defeating the reigning world chess champion defeating two champion contestants on the american quiz show jeopardy defeating the world s best human go player defeating all other entries in the 2020 critical assessment of protein structure prediction casp competition a development described by german biologist andrei lupas as this will change medicine it will change research it will change bioengineering it will change everything demonstrating a weather prediction system that continue reading artificial intelligence nirvana or apocalypse november 4th 2025 category essays comments are closed how likely will investors outlive their savings life expectancy 1770 2023 source our world in data target date funds target date funds are currently the rage in the finance world the term refers to a mutual fund that targets a given retirement date and then steadily shifts the allocation of assets from say a 80 20 mix of stocks and bonds at the start to say a 30 70 or 20 80 mix as the target date approaches vanguard group which manages over usd 5 trillion in assets much of it in employer offered defined contribution retirement plans reports that participation in its target date offerings have grown explosively in the past continue reading how likely will investors outlive their savings august 8th 2025 category essays comments are closed active funds versus passive indexes the latest scorecards morningstar s 2024 year end report in february 2025 morningstar released its latest scorecard report of mutual funds measuring active funds versus index benchmarks as of 31 december 2024 below is an excerpt of the data from this study here success rate is defined by morningstar as the percentage of actively managed funds that survive and beat the comparable equal weighted average passive fund return over the given period active fund success rates 10 year 10 year category 1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 20 year lowest fee highest fee u s large cap value 43 7 41 1 35 4 13 7 9 1 19 1 13 2 u s large cap growth 40 3 17 7 8 2 2 5 1 1 continue reading active funds versus passive indexes the latest scorecards march 14th 2025 category essays comments are closed overcoming experimenter bias in scientific research and finance history of measurements of the speed of light from henrion and fischloff assessing uncertainty in physical constants american journal of physics september 1986 reproducibility in modern science reproducibility has emerged as a major issue in numerous fields of scientific research ranging from psychology sociology economics and finance to biomedicine scientific computing and physics many of these difficulties arise from experimenter bias also known as selection bias consciously or unconsciously excluding ignoring or adjusting certain data that do not seem to be in agreement with one s preconceived hypothesis or devising statistical tests post hoc namely after data has already been continue reading overcoming experimenter bias in scientific research and finance february 4th 2024 category essays comments are closed 2023 another miserable year for market forecasters s p500 black and qqq i e nasdaq 100 orange 22 dec 2022 through 23 dec 2023 courtesy bigcharts forecasters december 2022 predictions on 20 december 2022 bloomberg published the results of their annual survey of prominent market forecasters the consensus investors ready to turn the page on the worst year for equities since the global financial crisis should brace for more pain heading into 2023 in particular the average target of 22 forecasters canvassed by bloomberg on 20 dec 2022 was that the s p500 index of u s stocks would close december 2023 at 4078 or in other words with continue reading 2023 another miserable year for market forecasters december 23rd 2023 category essays comments are closed aliens made this rock the post hoc probability fallacy in biology finance and cosmology updated 26 july 2025 c 2025 space aliens made this rock extraterrestrial aliens made this rock while out hiking i found this rock the following table gives measurements made on the rock the first two rows give the overall length and width of the rock each of the next six rows after the first two gives thickness measurements made on a 3cm x 6cm grid of points from the top surface all measurements are in millimeters measurement or row column 1 column 2 column 3 length 105 0 width 48 21 row 1 35 44 35 38 36 54 row 2 continue reading aliens made this rock the post hoc probability fallacy in biology finance and cosmology october 13th 2023 category essays comments are closed chart watching market timers fail again nasdaq 100 qqq blue and s p500 orange jan june 2023 courtesy bigcharts mid march 2023 for a moment let us turn back the clock to mid march 2023 here is a brief summary of the financial news current at the time the cryptocurrency community was still reeling from the november 2022 collapse of ftx led by wunderkind sam bankman fried the speed of ftx s downfall transpiring over just a few days stunned the crypto industry which had long promoted itself as a high tech means to avoid the risk of traditional banking the u s federal reserve defying pleas for mercy from politicians and investors continue reading chart watching market timers fail again july 2nd 2023 category essays comments are closed active versus index funds latest results a random walk on the base 4 digits of pi see http gigapan com gigapans 106803 a random walk down wall street fifty years ago princeton economics professor burton malkiel published a random walk down wall street he boldly asserted that a blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts could pick a stock portfolio that would do as well as one created by many expert practitioners in the field at the time malkiel envisioned a strategy of owning a broad based set of stocks saying mimicking a major stock index such as the u s standard and poor s 500 index s p 500 at the time such investment vehicles continue reading active versus index funds latest results march 7th 2023 category essays comments are closed major brokerages and news media feature technical analysis introduction suppose in a national tv newscast instead of citing data analysis and predictions from major government agencies the weatherperson displayed a chart of recent temperatures noting trends waves and breakout patterns most of us would not have confidence in such a dubious and unorthodox forecast or suppose at a medical clinic that a cardiologist made some hand measurements of events on an electrocardiogram and noted a triangle pattern or fibonacci ratio between them if this were to happen most of us would start looking for another cardiologist note the fibonacci ratio also known as the golden ratio usually continue reading major brokerages and news media feature technical analysis february 15th 2023 category essays comments are closed can factor investing become scientific a new paper causal factor investing can factor investing become scientific has been written by our esteemed colleague marcos lopez de prado of cornell university abu dhabi investment authority and true positive technologies in his 75 page preprint lopez de prado argues that almost all journal articles in the factor investing literature make assertions that are merely associational observations from statistical analyses with no attempt to connect these findings to any coherent underlying theory in other words these authors justify their chosen model specification merely in terms of correlations or other statistics and they do not propose experiments for falsifying causal continue reading can factor investing become scientific january 30th 2023 category essays comments are closed older entries recent posts artificial intelligence nirvana or apocalypse how likely will investors outlive their savings active funds versus passive indexes the latest scorecards overcoming experimenter bias in scientific research and finance 2023 another miserable year for market forecasters aliens made this rock the post hoc probability fallacy in biology finance and cosmology chart watching market timers fail again active versus index funds latest results major brokerages and news media feature technical analysis can factor investing become scientific meta log in entries feed comments feed wordpress org copyright 2026 mathematical investor all rights reserved powered by wordpress atahualpa