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and india total global production therefore expanded enormously but branko notes that this aggregate success did not translate into political support for neoliberal globalization in the rich countries because much of the electorate there experienced weak real income growth while the rich did much better his elephant graph explains this for him this uneven distribution was crucial neoliberalism was not merely pro rich in the united states and much of the west it also produced slower broad based growth than the preceding postwar period the global gains associated with china s development and international integration were real but politically abstract for workers in advanced economies who experienced deindustrialization stagnant wages insecure employment and the erosion of local economic opportunities his point is that cosmopolitanism and competition eventually undermined one another cosmopolitanism treated the welfare of foreigners and compatriots as morally comparable while national political systems remain organized around citizens who expect some degree of national solidarity the winners of globalization he argues often appeared indifferent to compatriots who lost from import competition offshoring or the reorganization of production worse they tended to interpret failure in competitive markets as evidence of personal or moral inadequacy the 2007 08 global financial crisis made these tensions unmistakable it showed in his account that the rich and the financial sector could be rescued while those who had lost economic security were expected to absorb much of the cost the center left was poorly positioned to capture the resulting discontent because it was either discredited by the history of real existing socialism or associated through third way politics new dems new labour etc with the very neoliberal globalization that had alienated working and middle class voters this helps explain why the backlash moved predominantly to the right right wing nationalist parties promised national solidarity limits on the equal economic treatment of citizens and foreigners the return of industrial employment and a restoration of dignity and traditional values in the international sphere milanovic sees neoliberal globalization being replaced by neomercantilist policies protectionism and the increase in tariffs import restrictions the use of economic sanctions including asset seizures and a much more politically acceptable restriction of migration in somewhat marxian fashion he says that the internal contradictions of neoliberal globalization produced the conditions for its own demise globalization s success created global growth but generated domestic inequality social resentment and political nationalism in the rich countries neoliberalism is therefore being replaced by a more protectionist nationalist and economically coercive international order branko thinks neoliberalism has genuinely ended and has been replaced by neomercantilism i m more skeptical about that the united states and europe may now use industrial policy tariffs subsidies and geopolitical controls but it s not clear that they ever stopped using them meanwhile a good part of limits imposed on the working class in advanced economies and in the periphery remains subject to the old neoliberal discipline in other words the attachment to free market ideology was always qualified in the center and the complete reversal of policies should be taken with a grain of salt it is clear that neoliberal globalization generated political discontent weakened labor intensified inequality and helped create the conditions for nationalist backlash it is also true that the old cosmopolitan language of free trade and borderless markets is no longer adequate to describe the behavior of the major powers but it doesn t follow that neoliberalism itself has ended in my account the system has adapted remarkably well because its core purpose was never simply free trade or small government it was the reorganization of society in favor of capital the discipline of labor and the restriction of democratic policy space the main thing that branko underestimates is that cosmopolitanism was never the whole substance of neoliberalism and that the underlying logic of competition was never fully abandoned that is why the underlying project was the protection of capital the weakening of labor and the encasement of markets against democratic control could survive when the ideology ceases to serve those purposes neoliberalism can survive through protectionism industrial policy militarization fiscal rules and geopolitical coercion let alone that in good parts of the periphery certainly in many parts of latin america like in argentina the old neoliberal free market ideology and policies are alive and kicking the essential point is that the free market ideology has not been completely abandoned by right wing populists such as trump the celebration of entrepreneurship of techno billionaires and crypto bros the belief that markets are the most effective mechanism for coordinating information and the idea that there are no workers only potential entrepreneurs remain central to the maga revolt the self made man myth is still doing much of the ideological work tariffs and sanctions are therefore presented less as a rejection of markets than as a means of leveling the playing field against foreign competitors and unfair practices financial deregulation and musk s failed department of government efficiency doge celebrated the efficiency of the private sector and the waste of the state in other words the ostensibly post neoliberal right maintains core neoliberal ideological commitments they abandoned cosmopolitanism but not free market individualism i m not sure that people or more precisely workers were at any point in the more recent neoliberal era allowed to move freely there was an asymmetry between the mobility of labor and capital for sure free labor in the neoliberal context often meant free from unions which are seen as an impediment on the individual bargaining position on june 20 2026 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels branko milanovic neoliberalism wednesday june 17 2026 warsh beyond powell and glory soon in a theater near you kevin warsh will have a difficult task ahead but it is not quite the one most political and economic analysts have been emphasizing for much of the commentariat warsh s problem is that he needs to hike interest rates and defy trump many are concerned that he won t have the courage to do it although he was seen as a hawk on inflation he has been tempted by the possibility that artificial intelligence might raise productivity and allow lower interest rates like alan greenspan in the 1990s who came to believe that the internet had reduced the inflationary impact of growth warsh appears at least circumstantially as a dove worse he might do trump s bidding and effectively end the independence of the fed gasps from the audience and undermine its credibility a terror flick for very serious economists but for most commentators the mild acceleration of inflation associated to the price of oil and the war in iran and the uncertainty about the actual impact of ai on that see austan goolsbee on soumaya keynes podcast have made that position look less tenable for most analysts hence the renewed calls not merely to resist trump s pressure for lower rates but to hike them to imitate powell in this view would be the path to respectability perhaps even to glory it would also be a mistake ruchir sharma for example draws the conventional hard money conclusion warsh he argues should begin his tenure by raising rates and ending the fed s easy money bias the argument is wrapped in populist language inflation hurts workers and the poor while easy money fuels asset prices and benefits the rich there is a kernel of truth there but it is not always the case see also besides rate hikes will not produce cheaper oil the best hope there is the end of the war in iran powell was lucky his interest rate hikes did not produce a recession through the housing channel reducing credit and consumption but those hikes were not the main reason inflation came down inflation declined largely because the cost push pressures associated with the pandemic value chain disruptions and the oil shock after the ukraine war subsided the lesson is not that powell became volcker and saved the republic the lesson is that supply shocks eventually faded and the fed received more credit than it deserved this is the problem with the constant invocation of volcker as i argued before in my post on paul volcker s legacy the conventional story exaggerates the virtues of monetary toughness and obscures the social costs of disinflation the volcker shock was not a technocratic morality play in which courage defeated inflation it was a brutal tightening that produced a deep recession weakened labor and accelerated the decline of workers bargaining power it also caused the debt crisis and the lost decade for several developing countries to recommend that warsh seek his volcker moment is to misunderstand both the causes of the current inflation and the political economy of monetary policy the same problem underlies what i called inflation paranoia the new consensus view treats inflation as always and everywhere a problem of excess demand to be solved by the central bank through higher rates but the recent pandemic inflation and its more recent and milder rekindling are not fundamentally excess demand or a wage price spiral driven by an overheated labor market and distributive conflict it is a cost push episode shaped by energy shocks and the previous one by logistics problems too again this is not the 70s show warsh cannot fix cost push inflation by hiking interest rates he can slow the economy weaken labor markets and perhaps prick asset bubbles but that is not the same thing as solving the causes of inflation there is no significant risk of high inflation the biased lesson drawn from the volcker legacy is that central bankers achieve greatness by inflicting pain the better lesson is that warsh should not seek glory by repeating powell s hikes or worse by chasing a new volcker myth on june 17 2026 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels goolsbee greenspan inflation kevin warsh keynes powell ruchir sharma volcker sunday june 14 2026 rod o donnell on keynes and liberal socialism hits and mises click for the joke i have been rereading again rod o donnell s work on keynes political and social philosophy i had not read his 1989 book keynes philosophy economics and politics in a long while the occasion is the forthcoming 7th workshop on demand led growth in rio organized by ricardo summa where i will discuss an extension my discussion of keynes political views and in particular of the question of whether keynes should be understood as a liberal or as a socialist i had already discussed james crotty s important contribution to this debate in my paper for tom palley s forthcoming festschrift available here crotty in keynes against capitalism argues that keynes wanted to replace the capitalism of his time with what keynes himself called liberal socialism o donnell s case is in some ways older and in my view more careful but it moves in the same direction o donnell s interpretation is that keynes economics cannot be separated from his ethical and political philosophy keynes was not merely trying to fix some technical problem in the theory of employment his economics was part of a broader project concerned with the conditions for a civilized life keynes social philosophy was about much more than the level of output and employment it was about the possibility of reducing insecurity limiting the power of the money motive preserving individual freedom and creating the material conditions for the good life in the two chapters on political philosophy in the 1989 book o donnell presents keynes as a liberal but not as an old laissez faire liberal keynes was not committed to the idea that private interest automatically promoted the public good he believed that capitalism had to be managed that the state had to take responsibility for investment employment public works education health the arts and the broader conditions of civilization according to him keynes was also deeply critical of the moral foundations of capitalism especially of the acquisitive mentality and the social prestige attached to money making that is why o donnell sees keynes as moving beyond capitalism in the long run for him keynes did not admire capitalism he thought it was ugly unstable and morally corrupting for o donnell the instability is deeply connected to keynes views on probability and uncertainty o donnell sees keynes as believing capitalism is not self stabilizing largely because investment and economic life are organized around uncertain expectations money and private profit rather than social purpose in this view keynes preferred capitalism to the alternatives available in his own time above all soviet central planning and fascism but not because he regarded capitalism as an ideal social order o donnell is right to insist that keynes defense of capitalism was qualified but i am less sure that keynes wanted to transition to an alternative social arrangement his disregard for some aspects of capitalism seems more aesthetic at least based on his several bios including skidelsky s one and in his writings like my early beliefs he might have thought that the pursue of profit was vulgar and that the good life resided in the arts and the pursuit of beauty but beauty and arts were defined in an avant garde elitist way i doubt he saw beauty in a football game or soccer as people calls it in the us as i noted in the paper linked above following skidelsky keynes wanted to preserve the social arrangements in which he was brought up the presuppositions of harvey road as harrod would have called them in his later 1999 essay on keynes and socialism o donnell pushes this further keynes he argues should be taken seriously as a liberal socialist the term of course was used by keynes himself o donnell s point is that socialism should not be reduced to marxism public ownership class struggle or revolutionary transformation if socialism is understood more broadly as the use of social control for public purposes then keynes can be understood as a socialist of a particular kind there is something to this many of keynes views would now be seen as social democratic full employment policy redistribution social security public works capital controls the euthanasia of the rentier the socialization of investment and the rejection of laissez faire all became part of the language of the postwar welfare state in that sense keynes does not fit the later caricature of liberalism as simply market liberalism he is closer to...
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