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august 2021 nep dge blog nep dge blog discussion about the latest research in dynamic general equilibrium theory home about emigration and fiscal austerity in a depression august 18 2021 by guilherme bandeira jordi caballe and eugenia vella http d repec org n u repec aue wpaper 2035 r dge this paper studies the role of emigration in a deep recession when the government implements fiscal consolidation we build a small open economy new keynesian model with search and matching frictions emigration of the labour force and fiscal details our simulations for the austerity mix during the greek depression show that fiscal austerity accounts for one third of the output drop and more than 10 of migration outflows whereas the rest is attributed to the macroeconomic environment a counterfactual without migration underestimates the fall in output by one fifth the model also sheds light on the two way relation between emigration and austerity labour income tax hikes induce prolonged migration outflows while spending cuts exert only a small effect on emigration which can be positive or negative depending on opposite demand and wealth effects on the flip side emigration increases the required tax hike and time to meet a given debt target due to endogenous revenue leakage for tax hikes emigration acts as an absorber of the austerity shock by diluting the output costs per resident through shrinking population yet in terms of unemployment temporary gains are reversed over time due to the distortionary effects of taxes on employment there is some literature on the effect of tax hikes on emigration there is some but it is not as bad as some make it sound this paper goes further with its analysis of the recent greek austerity it also considers the budget cuts and debt targets those appear to have a negligible impact on emigration but emigration has a larger impact on debt service as the same debt needs to be carried by fewer people leave a comment uncategorized permalink posted by christian zimmermann does it matter how central banks accumulate reserves evidence from sovereign spreads august 14 2021 by césar sosa padilla and federico sturzenegger http d repec org n u repec aoz wpaper 79 r dge there has been substantial research on the benefits of accumulating foreign reserves but less on the relative merits of how these reserves are accumulated in this paper we explore whether the form of accumulation affects country risk we first present a model of endogenous sovereign debt defaults where we show that reserve accumulation through the issuance of debt contingent on local output reduces spreads in a way that reserve accumulation with foreign borrowing does not we confirm this model prediction when taking the theory to the data these results suggest that attention should be placed on the way reserves are accumulated a distinction that has important practical implications in particular our results call into question the benefits of programs of reserves strengthening through external debt such as those typically implemented by multilateral organizations indeed in this day and age of sophisticated financial instruments one should be able to do better than issuing debt denominated in us dollars if shareholders are willing to take reduced dividends in downturns there should be a market for sovereign debt tied to contingencies that should work as long as statistical agencies can maintain their independence which can be a hurdle though leave a comment uncategorized permalink posted by christian zimmermann distributional effects of emission pricing in a carbon intensive economy the case of poland august 8 2021 by marek antosiewicz j rodrigo fuentes piotr lewandowski jan witajewski baltvilks http d repec org n u repec ioe doctra 546 r dge in this paper we assess the distributional impact of introducing a carbon tax in poland we apply a two step simulation procedure first we evaluate the economy wide effects with a dynamic general equilibrium model second we use a microsimulation model based on household budget survey data to assess the effects on various income groups and on inequality we introduce a new adjustment channel related to employment changes which is qualitatively different from price and behavioural effects and is quantitatively important we find that the overall distributional effect of a carbon tax is largely driven by how the revenue is spent distributing the revenues from a carbon tax as lump sum transfers to households reduces income inequality while spending the revenues on a reduction of labour taxation increases inequality these results could be relevant for other coal producing countries such as south africa germany or australia another paper on the carbon tax and again it leaves unsatisfied i am a big fan of carbon taxes and it seems trivial to think that redistribution will depend on how the revenues are spent what is really interesting is that poland is currently very much dependent on coal for heating at the household level the costs to convert to other technologies are substantial hence the tax needs to be very high to have a bite the household response will be much more complex than a microsimulation can yield because you are not talking about a small variation around existing allocations this is going to be massive and the resistance will be huge leave a comment uncategorized permalink posted by christian zimmermann you are currently browsing the nep dge blog blog archives for august 2021 follow me on twitter my tweets nep blogs nep ara economics of the mena middle east and north africa nep dge dynamic general equilibrium nep his business economic and financial history nep int international trade nep ltv unemployment inequality and poverty nep opm open macroeconomics nep pay the cashless society blogroll calls for papers christian zimmermann your editor econacademics blog aggregator nep nep dge mailing list qm rbc repec repec blog society for economic dynamics subscribe rss posts rss comments follow blog via email enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email email address follow join 153 other subscribers recent comments giulio fella on job ladder human capital and the cost of job loss daniel carroll on the dynamics of the racial wealth gap jp bouchaud on crisis propagation in a heterogeneous self reflexive dsge model m h on crisis propagation in a heterogeneous self reflexive dsge model nikos fatouros on monetary policy in disaster prone developing countries joão quelhas on liquidity constraints and fiscal multipliers jake bradley on worker firm screening and the business cycle winfried koeniger on opportunity and inequality across generations alisher tolepbergen on minimum wage shocks in an estimated dsge model with underreporting lee miller on monetary policy and endogenous financial crises latest papers on nep dge an error has occurred the feed is probably down try again later archives january 2023 4 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