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f whether god exists and traffic planning complete book available for free online also as paperback routledge 2002 self locating belief in big worlds cosmology s missing link to observation current cosmological theories say that the world is so big that all possible observations are in fact made but then how can such theories be tested what could count as negative evidence to answer that we need to consider observation selection effects the journal of philosophy vol 99 no 12 2002 607 623 html pdf the mysteries of self locating belief and anthropic reasoning summary of some of the difficulties that a theory of observation selection effects faces and sketch of a solution the harvard review of philosophy vol 11 no 1 2003 59 73 pdf anthropic shadow observation selection effects and human extinction risks anthropic shadow is an observation selection effect that prevents observers from observing certain kinds of catastrophes in their recent geological and evolutionary past we risk underestimating the risk of catastrophe types that lie in this shadow w milan m cacute irkovi cacute anders sandberg risk analysis vol 30 no 10 2010 1495 1506 won best paper of the year award by the journal editors translation russian pdf observation selection effects measures and infinite spacetimes an advanced introduction to observation selection theory and its application to the cosmological fine tuning problem universe or multiverse ed bernard carr cambridge university press 2007 431 443 pdf the doomsday argument and the self indication assumption reply to olum argues against olum and the self indication assumption w milan m cacute irkovi cacute the philosophical quarterly vol 53 no 210 2003 83 91 pdf the doomsday argument is alive and kicking have korb and oliver refuted the doomsday argument no mind vol 108 no 431 1999 539 551 translation russian the doomsday argument adam eve un and quantum joe on the doomsday argument and related paradoxes synthese vol 127 no 3 2001 359 387 html pdf a primer on the doomsday argument the doomsday argument purports to prove from basic probability theory and a few seemingly innocuous empirical premises that the risk that our species will go extinct soon is much greater than previously thought my view is that the doomsday argument is inconclusive although not for any trivial reason in my book i argued that a theory of observation selection effects is needed to explain where it goes wrong colloquia manilana vol 7 1999 translation russian audio sleeping beauty and self location a hybrid model the sleeping beauty problem is an important test stone for theories about self locating belief i argue against both the traditional views on this problem and propose a new synthetic approach synthese vol 157 no 1 2007 59 78 pdf beyond the doomsday argument reply to sowers and further remarks argues against george sower s refutation of the doomsday argument and outlines what i think is the real flaw c 2002 pdf cars in the other lane really do go faster when driving on the motorway have you ever wondered about and cursed the fact that cars in the other lane seem to be getting ahead faster than you one might be tempted to account for this by invoking murphy s law if anything can go wrong it will discovered by edward a murphy jr in 1949 but there is an alternative explanation based on observational selection effects plus no 17 2001 observer relative chances in anthropic reasoning a paradoxical thought experiment erkenntnis vol 52 no 1 2000 93 108 cosmological constant and the final anthropic hypothesis examines the implications of recent evidence for a cosmological constant for the prospects of indefinite information processing in the multiverse co authored with milan m cirkovic w milan m cacute irkovi cacute astrophysics and space science vol 274 no 4 2000 675 687 pdf bio nick bostrom who has been referred to as the swedish superbrain has a background in theoretical physics computational neuroscience logic and artificial intelligence along with philosophy he is one of the most cited philosophers in the world he was until recently professor at oxford university where he served as the founding director of the future of humanity institute from 2005 until its closure in 2024 he is the founder and principal researcher of the nonprofit macrostrategy research initiative bostrom is the author of 200 publications including anthropic bias 2002 global catastrophic risks 2008 human enhancement 2009 and superintelligence paths dangers strategies 2014 a prescient new york times bestseller which helped spark a global conversation about the future of ai that continues to this day his work has pioneered many of the ideas that frame current thinking about humanity s future e g the concept of existential risk the simulation argument the vulnerable world hypothesis differential technological development crucial considerations the moral status of digital minds etc his most recent book deep utopia life and meaning in a solved world was published in 2024 his writings have been translated into more than 30 languages he is a repeat main stage ted speaker he has been on foreign policy s top 100 global thinkers list twice and was included in prospect s world thinkers list the youngest person in the top 15 as a graduate student he dabbled in stand up comedy on the london circuit for more background see profiles in e g the new yorker or aeon my work my research efforts while they may appear scattershot generally share one aim which is to better understand what i call our macrostrategic situation by this i mean the larger context in which human civilization exists and in particular how our current choices relate to long term outcomes or ultimate values i think we are fairly profoundly in the dark on such matters you could say that we are like ants who may be very busy schlepping needles from one point to another but with little notion as to what they are doing why they are doing it or whether in the final reckoning it was good that they did it i ve been interested in these questions since my teenage years my interest is rooted in a practical concern without an adequate understanding of our macrostrategic situation we can strive to make a difference in the world but will that difference be positive or negative if we are missing at least one crucial consideration we might be squandering our energy on things that are of scant consequence or our well intentioned efforts might unwittingly be making things worse cont cont i had the privilege of creating and then leading the future of humanity institute at oxford university it started with just three researchers back in 2005 and grew to about fifty at its peak before its closure in 2024 the fhi had a unique intellectual culture and was a magnet for some of the most exceptionally brilliant and often eccentric minds in the world despite its small scale and relatively short lifespan the fhi produced an astonishing string of fundamental advances which amount to a new way of thinking about big picture questions for humanity i imagine that perhaps plato s academy in ancient athens or some artistic circle in the heyday of renaissance florence might have enjoyed a similar spirit of aliveness and intellectual fertility in addition to its research accomplishments the fhi community spawned a number of academic offshoots nonprofits and other initiatives that continue to thrive it helped incubate the ai safety research field the existential risk and rationalist communities and the effective altruism movement its alumni have gone on to hold prominent positions in other institutions fhi was eventually shut down in 2024 following several years of increasing bureaucratic strangulation from the local faculty administration today there is a much broader support base for the kind of work fhi was set up to enable so the institute essentially served its purpose but those of us fortunate enough to have been there during its early or peak years will cherish memories of this academic anomaly that was the fhi for a third party telling of the story of fhi see this book chapter as for my own research this webpage itself is perhaps the best summary aside from my work related to artificial intelligence on safety ethics governance and strategic implications i have also originated or contributed to the development of ideas such as the simulation argument existential risk transhumanism information hazards astronomical waste crucial considerations observation selection effects in cosmology and other contexts of self locating belief anthropic shadow differential technological development the unilateralist s curse the parliamentary model of decision making under normative uncertainty the notion of a singleton the vulnerable world hypothesis the cosmic host alongside analyses of future technological capabilities and concomitant ethical issues risks and opportunities somewhat more recently i ve been doing work on the moral and political status of digital minds on some issues in metaethics and on life and value in a post instrumental condition see deep utopia life and meaning in a solved world these days i m mostly thinking about things related to agi and superintelligence i ve noticed that misconceptions about my work sometimes arise when people have only read portions of it examples include the belief that i m a gung ho transhumanist or that i m anti ai or that i m a consequentialist fanatic who would favor any policy purported to mitigate some existential risk i suspect one cause of such errors is that many of my papers investigate particular aspects of some complex issue or trace out the implications that would follow from some particular set of assumptions this is an analytic strategy carve out parts of a problem where one can see how to make intellectual progress make that progress and then return to see if one can find ways to make additional parts tractable my actual overall views on the challenges confronting us are far more nuanced complex and tentative this has always been the case and it has become even more so as i ve mellowed with age i ve never been temperamentally inclined towards strong ideological positions or indeed isms of any kind contact for media and most other inquiries please contact my executive assistant emily campbell email protected press images this page if you need to contact me directly i regret i am not always able to respond to emails email protected newsletter receive rare updates virtual estate simulation argument com devoted to the question are you living in a computer simulation www anthropic principle com papers on observational selection effects www existential risk org human extinction scenarios and related concerns some videos lectures nick bostrom how ai will lead to tyranny new ai safety ai policy and digital minds london 2023 43 mins how civilization could destroy itself and 4 ways we could prevent it professor nick bostrom chats about the vulnerable world hypothesis with chris anderson vancouver 2019 21 mins podcast with sean carroll on anthropic selection theory and the simulation argument oxford 2020 1 hour 21 mins podcast with lex fridman discussion on the simulation argument with lex fridman oxford 2020 1 hour 41 mins ted talk on ai risk my second ted talk vancouver 2015 17 mins interviews q a with nick bostrom who is in charge of the big picture questions new interview with forbes forbes june 2024 the doomsday invention will artificial intelligence bring us utopia or destruction a long form feature profile of me by raffi khatchadourian the new yorker november 23 issue 2015 omens long article by ross andersen about the work of the future of humanity institute aeon february 2013 how to make a difference in research interview for 80 000 hours interview for the meta charity 80 000 hours on how to make a maximally positive impact on the world for people contemplating an academic career trajectory january 2013 on the simulation argument 15 minute audio interview explaining the simulation argument philosophy bites 2011 mp3 on cognitive enhancement and status quo bias 15 minute interview about status quo bias in bioethics and the reversal test by which such bias might be cured bioethics 2011 mp3 policy smart policy cognitive enhancement and the public interest summarizing some of the key issues and offering policy recommendations for a smart policy on biomedical methods of enhancing cognitive performance w rebecca roache enhancing human capacities eds julian savulescu et al wiley blackwell 2011 138 149 pdf three ways to advance science those who seek the advancement of science should focus more on scientific research that facilitates further research across a wide range of domains particularly cognitive enhancement nature podcast 31 january 2008 pdf spanish by pablo stafforini what are the key steps the uk should take to maximise its resilience to natural hazards and malicious threats in response to the call for evidence for the uk government s 2020 integrated review integrated review call for evidence 2020 pdf drugs can be used to treat more than disease short letter to the editor on obstacles to the development of better cognitive enhancement drugs nature vol 451 no 7178 2008 520 520 pdf some additional old cobwebbed papers on the old papers page collections of papers in translation hacia dónde vamos la propuesta transhumanista eight papers translated to spanish by piero gayozzo and fabrizio lópez de pomar for the editorial fund of the secular humanist society of peru 2022 die zukunft der menschheit six papers translated to german by jan erik strasser 2018 miscellaneous the interests of digital minds a blog post draft draft 1 0 2018 pdf golden fictional interview of an uploaded dog by larry king 2004 html synkrotron a poetry cycle in swedish unfortunately i stopped writing poetry after this although i ve had a few relapses in the english language 1995 html the world in 2050 imaginary dialogue set in the year 2050 in which three pundits debate the big issues of their time 2000 html transhumanism the world s most dangerous idea according to francis fukuyama yes this is my response short version in foreign policy full version in betterhumans issue 10 19 2004 html moralist meet scientist review of kwame anthony appiah s book experiments in ethics nature vol 453 no 7195 2008 593 594 pdf how long before superintelligence this paper now a few years old examines how likely it might be that we will develop superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of this century updated version 2008 of the original in international journal of futures studies vol 2 1998 html translation russian when machines outsmart humans this slightly more recent but still obsolete article briefly reviews the argument set out in the previous one and notes four immediate consequences of human level machine intelligence futures vol 35 no 7 2003 759 764 where it appears as the target paper of a symposium together with five co...