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Text of the page (random words):
hat s kept a show about polka on npr for thirty years but i born and raised where maintaining a good appearance begins and ends with trying not to sweat one s clothes into a dripping formless heap immediately upon stepping outside into the malarial atmosphere of a land that god never intended for man to inhabit can t see the point if we must have politicians isn t it better to have politicians who can solve problems on the rare occasion that the problems are real and can be solved than politicians who can act all sad about them for the cameras before going off and doing nothing the president is the big celebrity of the west the one person in the world who can get more airtime than kim kardashian but the president is also the man responsible for appointing people to the parts of government that appoint people who actually do things and therefore the man responsible albeit at a distance for determining whether it s legal to for example have borders and this seems more important not that i or any of you have any way to possibly influence the outcome of any election ever than the former role especially since the government could just crown kim kardashian queen of america and then so as not to violate the human rights of the american people hand out free cyanide pills to anyone who would want one in such a scenario i e 99 of the population but he also says that trump is unduly obsessed with appearance we had a dozen or so ducktails in my high school class and they were all about looks what gives is donald trump a ducktail according to world renowned hairstylist brick jixon sorry garrison keillor all about looks or is he not about looks enough one can only conclude that people who became mildly famous for running radio shows about polka are not guaranteed to be philosophical geniuses oh well at least he offended some unitarians once uncategorized election 2016 politics the mystery model s predictions 3 comments posted by nydwracu on june 8 2016 on may 6 i predicted that clinton would win new jersey california new mexico and kentucky and sanders would win west virginia oregon north dakota south dakota and montana on may 10 sanders won west virginia on may 17 clinton won kentucky and sanders won oregon the other six primaries were held yesterday sanders won north dakota and montana clinton won new jersey california new mexico south dakota and new mexico eight out of nine isn t bad now that all states have voted we can complete the chart state black winner mississippi 37 3 clinton louisiana 32 4 clinton georgia 31 4 clinton maryland 30 1 clinton south carolina 28 5 clinton alabama 26 4 clinton north carolina 21 6 clinton delaware 20 1 clinton virginia 19 9 clinton tennessee 16 8 clinton florida 15 9 clinton arkansas 15 8 clinton new york 15 2 clinton illinois 14 9 clinton new jersey 14 5 clinton michigan 14 2 sanders ohio 12 0 clinton texas 11 9 clinton missouri 11 5 clinton pennsylvania 10 8 clinton connecticut 10 3 clinton indiana 9 1 sanders nevada 9 0 clinton kentucky 8 2 clinton massachusetts 8 1 clinton oklahoma 8 0 sanders rhode island 7 5 sanders california 6 7 clinton kansas 6 2 sanders wisconsin 6 1 sanders minnesota 4 6 sanders nebraska 4 5 sanders colorado 4 3 sanders alaska 4 3 sanders arizona 4 2 clinton washington 3 7 sanders west virginia 3 6 sanders hawaii 3 1 sanders new mexico 3 0 clinton iowa 2 7 clinton oregon 2 0 sanders wyoming 1 3 sanders utah 1 3 sanders new hampshire 1 2 sanders south dakota 1 1 clinton north dakota 1 1 sanders maine 1 0 sanders idaho 1 0 sanders vermont 0 9 sanders montana 0 7 sanders the four states in orange are marked based on this map this very simple model clinton wins states with plurality mexican ancestry and states that are over 8 black and sanders wins all other states predicted the outcome of every state but michigan indiana iowa and south dakota in michigan clinton won the detroit flint area and sanders won most other counties in indiana clinton won the southern border of the state and the counties containing indianapolis and gary and sanders won most other counties in south dakota clinton won the eastern half of the state and sanders won the western half only in iowa does the distribution of sanders and clinton victories look random there are obvious demographic factors in michigan what happened in indiana and south dakota uncategorized election 2016 the mystery model 2016 is not 2008 7 comments posted by nydwracu on may 22 2016 previously 1 2 3 i expected that the mystery model would apply to the 2008 primary but it doesn t mississippi 37 3 obama louisiana 32 4 obama georgia 31 4 obama maryland 30 1 obama south carolina 28 5 obama alabama 26 4 obama north carolina 21 6 obama delaware 20 1 obama virginia 19 9 obama tennessee 16 8 clinton florida 15 9 n a arkansas 15 8 clinton new york 15 2 clinton illinois 14 9 obama new jersey 14 5 clinton michigan 14 2 n a ohio 12 0 clinton texas 11 9 clinton missouri 11 5 obama pennsylvania 10 8 clinton connecticut 10 3 obama indiana 9 1 clinton nevada 9 0 clinton kentucky 8 2 clinton massachusetts 8 1 clinton oklahoma 8 0 clinton rhode island 7 5 clinton california 6 7 clinton kansas 6 2 obama wisconsin 6 1 obama minnesota 4 6 obama nebraska 4 5 obama colorado 4 3 obama alaska 4 3 obama arizona 4 2 clinton washington 3 7 obama west virginia 3 6 clinton hawaii 3 1 obama new mexico 3 0 clinton iowa 2 7 obama oregon 2 0 obama wyoming 1 3 obama utah 1 3 obama new hampshire 1 2 clinton south dakota 1 1 clinton north dakota 1 1 obama maine 1 0 obama idaho 1 0 obama vermont 0 9 obama montana 0 7 obama to recap there s one statistic that almost perfectly predicts the results of the 2016 democratic primary states that come in at above 8 00 oklahoma is rounded up go to clinton with two exceptions michigan and indiana out of 24 states that come in below 8 00 go to sanders with two exceptions arizona and iowa out of 20 in my original post on this model i called new jersey california new mexico and kentucky for clinton and west virginia oregon south dakota north dakota and montana for sanders the west virginia kentucky and oregon primaries have since been held clinton won kentucky and sanders won west virginia and oregon in 2008 of the 23 eligible states above the 8 00 cutoff clinton won eleven and obama won twelve and of the 25 states below the 8 00 cutoff clinton won eight and obama won 17 has any election in recent history other than the 2016 democratic primary been decided by a single statistic like this eyeballing the maps of both parties primaries back to 1980 it doesn t look like it the closest precedent that i know of is the general election in 1968 uncategorized america election 2016 politics does the mystery model generalize 7 comments posted by nydwracu on may 12 2016 i recently found a simple statistic that distinguishes with near perfect accuracy between states that voted for clinton and states that voted for sanders it would be interesting to see whether it generalizes to the republican primary or to the 2012 general though i doubt it will state 2016 dem primary 2016 gop primary 2012 general mississippi 37 3 clinton trump romney louisiana 32 4 clinton trump romney georgia 31 4 clinton trump romney maryland 30 1 clinton trump obama south carolina 28 5 clinton trump romney alabama 26 4 clinton trump romney north carolina 21 6 clinton trump romney delaware 20 1 clinton trump obama virginia 19 9 clinton trump obama tennessee 16 8 clinton trump romney florida 15 9 clinton trump romney arkansas 15 8 clinton trump romney new york 15 2 clinton trump obama illinois 14 9 clinton trump obama new jersey 14 5 n a n a obama michigan 14 2 sanders trump obama ohio 12 0 clinton kasich obama texas 11 9 clinton cruz romney missouri 11 5 clinton trump romney pennsylvania 10 8 clinton trump obama connecticut 10 3 clinton trump obama indiana 9 1 sanders trump romney nevada 9 0 clinton trump obama kentucky 8 2 n a trump romney massachusetts 8 1 clinton trump obama oklahoma 8 0 sanders cruz romney rhode island 7 5 sanders trump obama california 6 7 n a n a obama kansas 6 2 sanders cruz romney wisconsin 6 1 sanders cruz obama minnesota 4 6 sanders rubio obama nebraska 4 5 sanders n a romney colorado 4 3 sanders cruz obama alaska 4 3 sanders cruz romney arizona 4 2 clinton trump romney washington 3 7 sanders n a obama west virginia 3 6 sanders n a romney hawaii 3 1 sanders trump obama new mexico 3 0 n a n a obama iowa 2 7 clinton cruz obama oregon 2 0 n a n a obama wyoming 1 3 sanders cruz romney utah 1 3 sanders cruz romney new hampshire 1 2 sanders trump obama south dakota 1 1 n a n a romney north dakota 1 1 n a n a romney maine 1 0 sanders cruz obama idaho 1 0 sanders cruz romney vermont 0 9 sanders trump obama montana 0 7 n a n a romney i ve left out nebraska and west virginia from the gop side because those races had only one candidate the general election is clearly regional our mystery statistic doesn t appear to be relevant the gop primary is more interesting the only states trump lost above our 8 0 cutoff are ohio kasich s home state and texas cruz s but he won seven states below the cutoff rhode island nebraska arizona west virginia hawaii new hampshire and vermont of these rhode island west virginia new hampshire and vermont are east coast states and trump has won every east coast state except maine of the rest arizona is an exception for the democrats as well for obvious reasons that would be taken into account in a slightly more complex version of this model another way to put this is above our 8 0 cutoff 10 trump states voted for obama in 2012 and 12 voted for romney but below it every trump state but arizona went to obama below the cutoff 6 non trump states went to romney and 5 went to obama so the mystery model appears to hold for the gop primary but there s a regional effect on top of it uncategorized america election 2016 politics the democratic primary part 2 2 comments posted by nydwracu on may 6 2016 data on white for sanders is from cnn s exit polls this is profoundly annoying there s exit poll data for only five states below the line one of which is sanders s home state and one of which is an unexplained outlier how is anyone supposed to run any statistical analysis with this garbage cbs and nyt are no better is there a way to estimate white for sanders in states without exit polling i don t know statistics a naïve computation of pearson s coefficient gives r 0 6653 p 0 00021 removing the outliers of texas nevada and vermont gives r 0 6971 p 0 00022 removing vermont alone gives r 0 6643 p 0 0003 perhaps there are regional effects beyond our mystery coefficient looking at states with substantial southern baptist populations alone that is mississippi georgia south carolina alabama north carolina virginia tennessee florida arkansas texas missouri and oklahoma r 0 5729 p 0 051 this is not significant at p 0 05 but only barely if we add maryland which was founded as a refuge for catholics and is plurality catholic today to make this a measure of the whole south we get r 0 562 p 0 046 before looking at the non southern states remember that we re missing most of the low end pearson s coefficient is woefully unsuited to this southern states don t have this problem all but louisiana have exit poll data and all but kentucky and west virginia which would be included by the southern baptist metric and delaware which wouldn t be have voted it s pointless to give pearson s coefficient here i include it in the hope that it motivates someone who does statistics to do a better analysis or at least find more exit poll data non southern states r 0 5124 p 0 061 non southern states minus texas nevada and vermont r 0 1683 p 0 62 state white for sanders winner mississippi 37 3 31 clinton louisiana 32 4 clinton georgia 31 4 41 clinton maryland 30 1 42 clinton south carolina 28 5 46 clinton alabama 26 4 38 clinton north carolina 21 6 52 clinton delaware 20 1 clinton virginia 19 9 42 clinton tennessee 16 8 42 clinton florida 15 9 43 clinton arkansas 15 8 35 clinton new york 15 2 50 clinton illinois 14 9 57 clinton new jersey 14 5 n a n a michigan 14 2 56 sanders ohio 12 0 47 clinton texas 11 9 41 clinton missouri 11 5 54 clinton pennsylvania 10 8 47 clinton connecticut 10 3 50 clinton indiana 9 1 59 sanders nevada 9 0 49 clinton kentucky 8 2 n a n a massachusetts 8 1 50 clinton oklahoma 8 0 56 sanders rhode island 7 5 sanders california 6 7 n a n a kansas 6 2 sanders wisconsin 6 1 59 sanders minnesota 4 6 sanders nebraska 4 5 sanders colorado 4 3 sanders alaska 4 3 sanders arizona 4 2 clinton washington 3 7 sanders west virginia 3 6 n a n a hawaii 3 1 sanders new mexico 3 0 n a n a iowa 2 7 46 clinton oregon 2 0 n a n a wyoming 1 3 sanders utah 1 3 sanders new hampshire 1 2 61 sanders south dakota 1 1 n a n a north dakota 1 1 n a n a maine 1 0 sanders idaho 1 0 sanders vermont 0 9 86 sanders montana 0 7 n a n a uncategorized america election 2016 politics the democratic primary in one chart 8 comments posted by nydwracu on may 6 2016 there s one statistic that almost perfectly predicts the results of the democratic primary can you guess what it is unexpected results are highlighted in red arizona is expected under a slightly more complicated model indiana may be expected i ve drawn the line between clinton and sanders at 8 00 exactly oklahoma is rounded up from 7 96 if indiana is expected massachusetts is unexpected but nevada is still expected under the slightly more complicated model i can t explain iowa i could possibly explain michigan if i looked at county level data but i don t know how looking at county level data would affect the other results from the model it may be better to also take into account scandinavian ancestry i hope sanders doesn t drop out before kentucky kentucky could determine where the line should be drawn if sanders wins the line should be at 10 and massachusetts is unexpected if clinton wins the line should remain where it is of course it may be that the states closest to the line can be determined by factors not easily amenable to raw statistical analysis like the competence of a candidate s campaign needless to say i predict that if the primary continues long enough clinton will win new jersey and sanders will win west virginia oregon south dakota north dakota and montana i also predict that clinton will win california and new mexico i haven t looked at any polls except those for kentucky which i predict with less confidence that clinton will win it would be interesting to look at exit poll data with this statistic in mind state winner mississippi 37 3 clinton louisiana 32 4 clinton georgia 31 4 clinton maryland 30 1 clinton south carolina 28 5 clinton alabama 26 38 clinton north carolina 21 6 clinton delaware 20 1 clinton virginia 19 9 clinton tennessee 16 8 clinton florida 15 9 clinton arkansas 15 8 clinton new york 15 2 clinton illinois 14 9 clinton new jersey 14 5 n a michigan 14 2 sanders ohio 12 0 clinton texas 11 9 cli...