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opical wind watches or warnings coastal and inland will not be plotted on the experimental cone graphic this is actually no different than the current operational version of the cone of uncertainty which does not depict non tropical wind watches and warnings along the coast an example can be seen below for hurricane ida in 2021 ida was forecast to become a post tropical cyclone depicted by the white dots over the tennessee valley and then re strengthen and begin producing gale force winds as it moved offshore the mid atlantic u s post tropical cyclone ida did produce some sustained gale force winds along the mid atlantic and northeast coasts but any non tropical watches or warnings communicating that possibility on the coast or inland would not have been depicted on the graphic example of the experimental version of the nhc cone of uncertainty for 2021 s hurricane ida showing that non tropical wind watches or warnings would not have been depicted along the coast of the northeast u s lastly a word about continuity we try to refrain from making frequent changes to the watches or warnings in effect for a specific area and that includes not discontinuing watches and warnings soon after they were issued or changing between tropical and non tropical watches and warnings in the middle of an event this can mean that even when there are shifts or changes to the forecast watches and warnings for an area may remain in effect for a while longer until we re absolutely certain the risk of strong winds has diminished why do we do this imagine if each time you go to your doctor you re given a different diagnosis for a health problem or prescribed a different medication to treat it you might start to lose trust in your doctor or at the very least not know what to believe a consistent message from your doctor with a gradual evolution of your treatment over time is likely to instill more faith in his or her expertise our philosophy is the same we tend to make incremental and gradual changes to our forecasts and the watches and warnings in effect which in the long run makes them more trustworthy where can i find the experimental cone the experimental cone of uncertainty will be created for every advisory regardless of whether or not there are inland wind watches or warnings in effect for the continental united states when you are looking at the legacy cone on the nhc website you can find the experimental cone by clicking the red link that says click here for the new experimental cone snapshot of the national hurricane center website where you can find the experimental cone of uncertainty graphic we want your feedback your feedback during the experimental phase of the new nhc cone of uncertainty graphic is critical in helping us decide if the product should go operational in a future year and what changes we might have to make before the product goes operational to make your voice heard please remember to fill out the nws survey share this print opens in new window print email a link to a friend opens in new window email tweet like loading this entry was posted in forecasting nhc warnings and tagged cone of concern cone of uncertainty forecast cone hurricane hurricane forecast national hurricane center tropical storm warnings why tropical cyclone size matters a comparison of hurricanes charley 2004 ian 2022 posted on may 28 2024 peyton collado former student intern and john cangialosi senior hurricane specialist a tale of two storms in 2004 and 2022 southwest florida was hit by devastating category 4 hurricanes the eyes of charley and ian made landfall within a few miles of one another with sustained winds up to 150 mph in both hurricanes these hurricanes led to catastrophic damage but to what extent with such similarities between hurricanes charley and ian why was the overall footprint of the impacts and hazards so different infrared satellite images of hurricane ian left and charley right just prior to their florida landfalls images courtesy of the cimss satellite blog at the university of wisconsin tracks of hurricane charley 2004 and ian 2022 naturally as ian threatened the florida coast in late september 2022 it was hard at the time to not look back and compare the potential impacts to charley this made sense at first glance since they were both category 4 hurricanes affecting the same part of florida however the potential risks can be deceptive if we only look at those two factors even though the track and intensity of the hurricanes were incredibly similar the estimated damage cost normalized to 2024 was about 4 5x higher in ian and the death toll was more than 10x higher as the winds storm surge and rainfall from ian stretched across a much larger portion of florida let s take a closer look at what led to such differences in the distribution of the impacts a word on wind radii the national hurricane center issues forecasts of the track intensity and size wind radii of tropical storms and hurricanes most individuals are more familiar with the track and intensity forecasts seen on many cone graphics but what about wind radii wind radii is a feature on many hurricane hazard graphics that corresponds to how far tropical storm force and hurricane force winds extend away from the storm s center 34 kt winds 39 mph scattered debris light projectiles fallen power lines that could lead to power outages possible damage to roof shingles siding 50 kt winds 58 mph damage to roof shingles siding gutters downed trees power lines unfastened homes of light weight could become airborne widespread power outages 64 kt winds 74 mph possible wall roof failure may blowout windows chart illustrating wind hazards national weather service the chart above briefly touches on wind related damage associated with tropical storm force and category 1 hurricane force winds given the potential impacts from wind alone when a hurricane poses a threat it is vital to understand the extent of such winds as impacts can be seen hundreds of miles away from the center track furthermore the extent of winds strongly correlates to other hurricane hazards like storm surge while charley and ian had their similarities their size difference played a major role in vast differences in wind and storm surge damage and resulting loss of life so how much did their wind radii differ in the following figure we can start to see why ian and charley were different it can be seen that tropical storm force winds yellow from ian are much larger than those of charley although both systems had similar peak winds at landfall the hurricane force winds red in ian extended out more than 20 nautical miles from charley s which impacted more than double the coastal area than charley maximum wind extents of hurricane ian left and hurricane charley right winds in knots the larger area of strong winds in ian is a major factor in why the storm surge was much worse in that hurricane the strong onshore winds on ian s east side pushed ocean water inland over a much larger region of southwest florida which was responsible for the majority of the damage and fatalities there not only was the storm surge higher but it swarmed many more miles of florida coastlines taking the lives of more than 40 individuals from this hazard alone during ian conversely the smaller charley produced significantly lower storm surge a way to think about storm surge and how it relates to storm size is to imagine yourself in a pool consider how much water you can push around if you move your finger at the top of the water in the pool on the other hand how much more water could you move around if you use your entire arm hopefully this analogy gives you some perspective on how wind radii storm size is correlated to the amount of storm surge a comparison of the peak storm surge maximum rainfall amount and forward speed between charley 2004 and ian 2022 another costly hazard from ian was flooding from rainfall although the storm size is not perfectly correlated with the total amount of rain from tropical cyclones they are related before ian made landfall near port charlotte harbor satellite images captured how large ian was with rain bands stretching across most of the florida peninsula and the florida keys in contrast charley s rain bands were much more compact generally limited to south and central florida as ian slowly trekked across the peninsula about 18 counties were faced with rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches with such extensive rainfall freshwater flooding was a significant threat that lasted well after the storm passed florida on the other hand charley moved nearly 3x faster than ian which in combination with its small size reduced the total rain footprint with 5 to 8 inches of rain generally occurring near its track across florida rainfall amounts from ian left and charley right images courtesy of noaa s weather prediction center with numerous hazards linked to hurricanes this comparison highlights why wind radii storm size is just as important if not more important in some cases as intensity below is a table that lists a comparison of united states related damages between charley and ian adjusted for inflation to current u s dollars it is clear to see that size and forward speed are very important factors that are correlated to hazards that affect the extent of damage and fatalities it should be noted however that there has been a significant increase in wealth and infrastructure in southwest florida between 2004 and 2022 that likely played a role in the notable differences in damage in these events based on climatology as catastrophic as ian was it was relatively close to the average size of a major hurricane near florida with the information we have on wind radii today it is important to compare incoming hurricanes to what a region has previously been faced with the following bar graph compares the average major hurricane size over florida to the sizes of ian and charley with the knowledge of climatology we can use such guidelines to communicate to the public whether an incoming hurricane is above or below average in terms of size based on wind radii data of major hurricanes from 2004 2022 charley falls in the 10th percentile and ian near the 60th percentile this further emphasizes the importance of paying attention to tropical cyclone size and not just comparing track and intensity of previous hurricanes bar graph comparing the extent of tropical storm force winds top three and hurricane force winds bottom three for an average sized hurricane charley and ian the national hurricane center and national weather service take into account storm size when issuing watches and warnings so it is highly advised that individuals use those when making decisions about protecting themselves their families and properties in addition there are products on the national hurricane center s website that include storm size information such as the wind speed probabilities storm surge probabilities and potential storm surge flooding graphic to name a few the bottom line is that forecasters understand how storm size can affect hazards and it is good practice to pay attention to forecasts rather than comparing the current event with previous storms or experiences share this print opens in new window print email a link to a friend opens in new window email tweet like loading this entry was posted in flooding forecasting nhc storm surge and tagged charley climate climate change hurricane ian news nhc rainfall size storm surge weather an evaluation of nhc service enhancements part 2 post tropical cyclone advisories posted on september 28 2023 updated on september 28 2023 brad reinhart hurricane specialist goes 16 geocolor satellite image of post tropical cyclone fiona over atlantic canada on the morning of september 24 2022 image credit cooperative institute for research in the atmosphere at colorado state cira csu and noaa in part 1 of this blog series we discussed the nhc s usage of potential tropical cyclone advisories to better message the threats posed by tropical cyclones tcs that develop near land another challenging situation occurs when a tropical cyclone loses its tropical characteristics while it approaches the coastline for example sandy 2012 lost its tropical characteristics and transitioned into a post tropical cyclone near the time of landfall which made communicating hazard information difficult following that event the national weather service nws adopted a policy to improve service during similar future situations under current policy if the post tropical cyclone poses a significant threat to life and property and if the transfer of responsibility to another nws office 1 would result in a discontinuity in service the nhc will continue to write advisories on the system this includes the full suite of standard tc products watches warnings and hazard information this policy change was driven by a desire to ensure consistent product availability and messaging during high impact events has it worked let s take a closer look at how nhc has leveraged this strategy in recent hurricane seasons what is a post tropical cyclone post tropical cyclone is a generic term for a system that was formerly a tc but no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be classified as a tc as a reminder tcs are warm core and non frontal cyclones with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well defined center in the atlantic ocean tcs commonly transition to extratropical et cyclones as they recurve into the mid latitudes since an et cyclone derives its energy from temperature differences between warm and cold air masses and is associated with fronts its structure is fundamentally different from a tc so once a weather system transitions to an et cyclone it no longer satisfies tc criteria and would be considered post tropical best track map of hurricane fiona 2022 showing its transition from a major hurricane purple line to a powerful extratropical cyclone black line over the north atlantic ocean a common misconception is that a tc has been downgraded when it becomes a post tropical cyclone this is certainly not the case unlike systems in their developmental stages that tend to be weaker before genesis many post tropical cyclones are powerful systems that simply no longer possess tropical characteristics an analysis of nhc post tropical cyclone advisory events below indicates that over half of these cyclones were producing winds of 58 mph or greater at the time of post tropical transition four of these systems were producing hurricane force 74 mph winds when they became post tropical cyclones in addition to strong winds these systems can produce other hazards that pose a significant threat to life and property on land storm surge destructive waves and flooding rains are dangerous regardless of whether the system producing these conditions is still a tc or has recently become a post tropical cyclone furthermore et ...