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ogging as well with little or no feedback people didn t feel like writing people started talking about the death of blogs sometimes writing this would feel like shouting into an empty room then again i ve considered this as a documentation of my life and my thoughts and your benefits if any being strictly collateral and carried on what substack seems to have shown is that the appetite for blogging didn t go away the appetite for commenting also didn t go away it s only the user experience over the years maybe coinciding with wordpress being the dominant blogging platform and wordpress being more popular for making websites than for blogs the user experience of commenting deteriorated and as people commented less they blogged less now looking at the comment density on substack i m seriously considering if i should make a shift there still need to see how easily i can port all of this stuff without breaking but if i can i might just what do you think do leave a comment and if you think this blogpost is too hard to comment on maybe comment on this note instead author sk posted on september 28 2023 categories blogging personal tags blogger commenting lj substack user experience wordpress 3 comments on move to substack brahmastra sometimes we overdo option value we do things that have a small possibility of a big upside and big possibility of no or very minimal downside in the belief that nothing can go wrong in trying my father used to term this pulling a mountain with a string with the reasoning being that if you actually manage to pull then you have moved a mountain if not all that you have lost is a string there is one kind of situation however where i think we might overindex on option value these are what i call one shot events or brahmastras going into a little bit of mythology there is the story of the brahmastra in the mahabharata famously karna possesses it it is an incredibly powerful weapon with the feature or bug rather that it can be used only once karna would have set it aside to use on arjuna but the pandavas decide to send ghatotkacha to create havoc during the night fight when karna is forced to use up his brahmastra on ghatotkacha meaning he didn t have access to it in his battle with arjuna where he karna ultimately got killed because the brahmastra could be used only once karna wanted to maximise the impact of the weapon his initial plan was to use it on what he thought might be a decisive battle with arjuna the pandavas counterplan was to force him to use it earlier actually thinking about it the brahmastra can be thought of as another kind of option the problem here being one of optimal exercise actually there is a very stud paper written by economist avinash dixit on this topic regarding elaine s sponges read the whole paper it is surely worth it to quickly summarise elaine has a limited number of contraceptive sponges and wants to maximise her utility of using them when a guy comes along she needs to decide whether it is worth expending a sponge on him dixit derives a nice equation to determine a function for this basically brahmastra occurs when you have only one sponge left and you need to use it at an optimal time there is another problem in economics called the secretary problem nothing to do with secretary birds that deals with this recently i ve been thinking these kind of brahmastra sponge secretary problems are important to solve when you are thinking of talking to someone let s say you have what you think is a studmax application of genai and want to talk to vcs about it if you go too early the vc will only see a half baked version of your idea and even if you go to them later once you have fully formed it the half baked idea you had showed them will influence them enough to discount your later fully formed idea and if you go too late the idea may not be that studmax any more and the vc might dismiss it so it s a problem of optimal exercise note that this is an issue only with american options not european it is similar with asking someone out or so i think i ve been out of this business for 14 years now you approach them too early before they know you they will dismiss you then and then forever you approach too late and the option would have expired in the world of finance we focus too much on the price of options and based on my now limited knowledge too little on optimal expiry of the said options in the real world the latter is also important author sk posted on september 21 2023 september 21 2023 categories arbit economics finance fundaes tags brahmastra elaine exercise options seinfeld sponge leave a comment on brahmastra mid wife crisis a month or two ago my wife wrote this studmax blogpost about mid life crises i read it when i was in draft i read it again soon after it was published and i read it again and again and again and i ve been showing it to a lot of people i meet having seen this post it has been impossible to unsee i used to wonder why hospi puts so many dance videos on instagram and then realised it must be mid life crisis i saw josh go from being a vlsi engineer to pushing limits and have classified that as mid life crisis as well recently ruddra posted topless gym photos i actually commented that it must be mid life crisis a few days ago my wife and i were talking about an acquaintance who is possibly having an affair and that again we put down to mid life crisis when asked why he had had a second child eight years after his first a relative had said early forties you hit mid life crisis we had the option of a sports car or another kid decided to go for the latter you see once you ve seen this concept and if you belong to the broad 35 50 age group it is absolutely impossible to un see you get excited about possibly meeting an old flame after ages and mid life crisis explains that you want to get hammered when you meet your old friends and mid life crisis explains that as well now being 40 and having identified that i m at mid life the challenge is to deal with the crisis in the least destructive manner possible that the crisis exists and needs to be dealt with is a fact the choice is in terms of how to deal with it if you are married or in a long term relationship you don t want to have an affair and put that in jeopardy also the question needs to be asked if one s demand for an affair can be met with supply alcohol and dope can be destructive to your physical and mental health social media gives you dopamine and i think that was my main tool of dealing with mid life crisis till recently but can be both addictive and anxiety causing gaming i ve considered buying a console for nearly 2 years now but i m yet to act on it gives you the dopamine but again comes with addiction risk and that is where the healthy obsessions come in you notice that many people around my age take to running or cycling or lifting or a combination of these all of these are physically strenuous activities and thus can give you your endorphins as an added bonus they increase either your cardiovascular health or your muscle strength thus preparing you better for old age so you find these to be fairly common midlife dealing hobbies if you can find one of these that you don t get bored by it s a clear win win i lift weights the problem is that because it is physically strenuous you can only do so much of it i go to the gym for an hour each 2 3 times a week if you do less strenuous stuff like running you can perhaps do an hour 7 times a week and so you need more the question is what you can choose that is non destructive relatively speaking a month or two back i got introduced to online quizzing i m currently playing three leagues one of them will end soon but i ve signed up for yet another starting at the end of this month i find that this is a fairly high dopamine hobby to the extent that now i ve started doing this late in the night since it interferes with my sleep and keeps me stimulated enough the only issue is it can be potentially addictive when i played my first friendly online quiz 2 3 weekends ago i felt the same way as i did when i smoked my first cigarette this is addictive shit i need to be careful interestingly two friends i spoke to in the week of august 15th and i m pretty sure those two have never met or spoken to each other told me start working on another book to deal with your mid life crisis i admit they too have a point but i don t know what to write about but yes midlife crisis is a real thing it is only about how you choose to deal with it without causing self harm author sk posted on september 13 2023 categories arbit fundaes personal leave a comment on mid wife crisis shap and war a few months back at work a couple of kids in my team taught me this concept called shap i won t go into the technical details here or maybe i will later on in this post but it is basically an algo that helps us explain a machine learning model it was one of those concepts that i found absolutely mind blowing to the extent that after these guys taught this concept to me it became the proverbial hammer and i started looking for nails all around the company i m pretty sure i ve abused it shap i mean most of the documentation of shap is not very good as you might expect about something that is very deeply technical so maybe i ll give a brief intro here or maybe not it s been a few months since i started using and abusing it and so i ve forgotten the maths in any case this is one of those concepts that made me incredibly happy on the day i learnt about it basically to put it in brief what you essentially do is to zero out an explanatory variable and see what the model predicts with the rest of the variables the difference between this and the actual model output approximately speaking is the contribution of this explanatory variable to this particular prediction the beauty of shap is that you can calculate the value for hundreds of explanatory variables and millions of observations in fairly quick time and that s what s led me to use and abuse it in any case i was reading something about american sport recently and i realised that shap is almost exactly identical in concept though not in maths to wins above replacement war works the same way a player is replaced by a hypothetical average similar player the replacement and the model calculates how much the team would have won in that case a player s war is thus the difference between the actuals what the team has actually won and the hypothetical if this particular player had been replaced by the average replacement this if you think about it is exactly similar to zeroing out the idiosyncrasies of a particular player so let s say you had a machine learning model where you had to predict wins based on certain sets of features of each player think of the features they put on those otherwise horrible spider charts when comparing footballers you build this model and then to find out the contribution of a particular player you get rid of all of this person s features or replace it with average for all data points and then look at the prediction and how different it is from the actual prediction depending on how you look at it it can either be shap or war in other words the two concepts are pretty much exactly the same author sk posted on september 9 2023 categories arbit data sport tags baseball machine learning sabrmetrics shap war wins above replacement leave a comment on shap and war llms and software margins a few months back i came across this article that talked about margins in the software industry long ago computer software was well known to be an insanely high gross margin industry however it is not the case any more if you look at saas software as a service companies a lot of them barely make much profits any more so what changed the answer is infrastructure in the olden days when all hardware was on premise software would be a bunch of lines of code that would get sold and then run on the client s on premise hardware thus once the code had been written and tested and perfected the only cost that the vendor faced was to install the code on the client s hardware including the cost of engineers involved in the installation and the margins soared then i m still paraphrasing the article that i had read and now can t find the cloud happened hardware wasn t all on premise any more people figured out that software could be sold as a service hence saas which means instead of charging for installing some code on a computer you could charge for api hits or function calls everything became smooth the catch though was that the software would now have to be hosted on hardware maintained in the cloud by the vendor which meant now the marginal cost of delivery suddenly became non zero rather it went from one time installation to costing each time it gets hit or the time for which it is maintained and this had a material impact on software margins i m thinking of this now in the wake of new fangled open source llms that keep getting announced every day every new llm that comes out gets compared with chatgpt and people tell you that this new llm is open source and you get excited that you can get for free what you would have to pay for with chatgpt of course the catch here is that chatgpt is like saas not only does it provide you the llm service it also hosts the service for you and answers your questions for a fee these open source models are like the traditional on premise computer software industry they have good code but the issue of course is that you need to supply your own hardware add in the cost of maintaining the said hardware and you see where you might spend with the open source llms that said free open source the open source llms are not only free but also open source and so the real value in them is that you can actually build on the existing algorithms and not have to pay a fee except for your own infrastructure and from that perspective it s exciting that so many new tools are coming along author sk posted on august 24 2023 categories arbit computer science tags chatgpt foss llama llms margins open source saas software 1 comment on llms and software margins posts pagination page 1 page 2 page 281 next page subscribe to blog via email enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email email address subscribe join 197 other subscribers search for search recent posts this site has moved i can retire the team around you a schoolboy fight in the middle east big and fast move to substack brahmastra mid wife crisis shap and war llms and software margins archives archives select month november 2023 2 october 2023 3 september 2023 4 august 2023 8 july 2023 12 june 2023 6 may 2023 8 april 2023 9 march 2023 11 february 2023 8 january 2023 7 december 2022 11 november 2022 8 october 2022 3 september 2022 3 august 2022 3 july 2022 3 june 2022 7 may 2022 1 april 2022 3 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