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ng term projections forecast evaluation welfare spending trends monthly commentary devolution other releases analytical and discussion papers corporate and governance in depth tax by tax spend by spend the economy forecast policy costings economic impact of policy measures brexit analysis brief guides and explainers forecast process analytical and discussion papers obr macroeconomic model box sets data news articles about what we do who we are legislation and related material governance and reporting international engagement external engagement external reviews working with government vacancies faqs contact recent publications latest efo efo charts and tables the obr s role in the devolved fiscal frameworks article pdf latest devolved forecast 4 august 2026 have your say on the future of the obr website we re seeking views from you to help shape the future of our website and online publishing whether you use the site for our forecasts and data or our analysis and research we d like to hear about your experience your feedback will help inform decisions about how the obr publishes and presents its content online in the future the survey is anonymous and should take no more than 10 minutes to complete take the survey news 31 july 2026 autumn 2026 forecast date announced 21 july 2026 borrowing slightly above forecast in first quarter of 2026 27 16 july 2026 professor jonathan haskel confirmed as next chair of the obr 9 july 2026 david miles nominated for reappointment to the obr s budget responsibility committee 7 july 2026 uk public finances heading towards unsustainable long term path with early action to address this less costly than waiting 25 june 2026 response to the november 2025 economic and fiscal outlook publication error 24 june 2026 non executive member of the office for budget responsibility 23 june 2026 prof jonathan haskel cbe nominated as next chair of the obr 11 june 2026 baroness hogg re appointed as a non executive member of the obr 27 may 2026 supplementary forecast information release long term economic determinants march 2026 22 may 2026 revisions bring 2025 26 borrowing slightly below forecast 23 april 2026 fiscal risks and sustainability report 2026 due 7 july 23 april 2026 welfare trends report 2026 due 23 june 23 april 2026 forecast evaluation report 2026 due 2 june 23 april 2026 obr s areas of research interest 23 april 2026 initial estimate of 2025 26 borrowing in line with forecast 1 april 2026 supplementary forecast information on costings relating to the november 2025 economic and fiscal outlook 20 february 2026 march 2026 forecast publication and financial market assumptions 9 february 2026 publication of the national cyber security centre s report into early access to economic and fiscal outlooks 4 february 2026 supplementary forecast information on salary sacrifice pension contributions and send spending 22 january 2026 supplementary forecast information on our funded pensions forecast 1 december 2025 resignation of richard hughes as chair of obr 1 december 2025 investigation into november 2025 efo publication error 27 november 2025 the chair s letters to the chancellor and chair of the commons treasury committee 26 november 2025 the chair s presentation on our november 2025 economic and fiscal forecast 26 november 2025 briefing paper no 9 forecasting productivity 26 november 2025 briefing paper no 10 accounting for the supply side effects of policy 14 november 2025 november 2025 forecast timetable 14 october 2025 welsh taxes outlook october 2025 update 11 september 2025 ready reckoner featured fiscal risks and sustainability 2026 an explainer video exploring the long term pressures on spending taxes and government debt and the choices future governments may face obr s areas of research interest building on the recommendations of the obr s 2025 external review we are publishing an initial set of our areas of research interest ari welfare trends report june 2026 our welfare trends report wtr examines the drivers of welfare spending articles the obr s role in the devolved fiscal frameworks holly mccurry luke lanskey and theerdha baiju 30 july 2026 this article explains the obr s role in the devolved fiscal frameworks including how our forecasts are used as part of the calculation of devolved government funding an update to the obr s small economic model rachel gibbs 23 july 2026 this article outlines the obr s updated small macroeconomic model describing its structure methodological changes and how it can be used to complement our forecasts estimating the yield from tax compliance policies asha turner and bronwyn garrett 2 october 2025 this article sets out how the obr is developing its approach to scrutinising and assessing compliance measures and further work we plan to do in this area forecasting participation trends the cohort model joshua rawlings 11 september 2025 in this article we provide an explanation of our forecasting process for the trend participation rate we discuss how we use a cohort model which combines labour force survey data and ons population projections to inform this forecast we also explain how we make adjustments for future changes in the state pension age and incorporate other judgements the supply side impact of planning reforms land value uplift and construction sector productivity lawrence lam 14 august 2025 in this article we provide more detail underpinning our judgement on the reforms supply side impact specifically on the higher construction sector productivity we judged the reforms would enable alongside supporting evidence and the resulting implications for our economy forecast how health status affects labour market participation chloe baker and laura gardiner 12 december 2024 in this article we explore the impact of population health on the medium term economic and fiscal outlook highlighting the risks poor health poses to the long term sustainability of public finances income tax and the earnings distribution amy nash 11 july 2024 in this article we set out how we put the paye income tax forecast together in our biannual economic and fiscal outlooks how new distributional analysis of earnings informs and improves our forecast and what our latest forecast assumes about earnings growth across the distribution trends in labour market inactivity for caring purposes katya ring holly mccurry rosanna colthorpe and joshua rawlings 11 january 2024 in this article we examine the reasons for the consistent downwards trend in inactivity for caring purposes coming to an end and what it might imply for our forecast for overall labour force participation dynamic scoring of policy measures in obr forecasts staff of the obr 9 november 2023 in this article we set out how the obr s economic and fiscal forecasts capture the dynamic effects of policies on the economic behaviour of people and businesses the obr ready reckoner balint benke and joão sousa 12 october 2023 our new ready reckoner allows users to obtain quick indicative estimates of how changes in the economy affect public finances 300 years of uk public finance data luke lanskey and conor o loughnan 20 july 2023 our new historical public finances database contains 300 years of tax spending borrowing and debt data this article tells the story of government borrowing and debt since 1700 and how the level and composition of tax and spending have evolved over this period key publications medium term forecasts five year forecasts for the uk economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets economic and fiscal outlook march 2026 last published 3 march 2026 next release 28 october 2026 fiscal risks and long term projections report into the main fiscal risks facing the uk and sustainability of the public finances fiscal risks and sustainability july 2026 last published 7 july 2026 next release summer 2027 forecast evaluation assessment of how our forecasts compare to outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts forecast evaluation report june 2026 last published 2 june 2026 next release 2027 welfare spending trends an in depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the government s welfare cap welfare trends report june 2026 last published 23 june 2026 next release 2028 monthly commentary our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast commentary on the public sector finances june 2026 last published 21 july 2026 next release 21 august 2026 welsh taxes we are commissioned by the welsh government to produce independent forecasts for devolved welsh taxes welsh taxes outlook january 2026 last published 20 january 2026 next release winter 2025 26 papers briefing papers briefing papers describe our work and explain the material we present briefing paper no 10 accounting for the supply side effects of policy last published 26 november 2025 next release tbc working papers as part of the obr work programme we will produce working papers on topics which will inform discussion on our forecasts working paper no 22 a new uk overlapping generations model last published 10 april 2025 next release tbc discussion papers the obr publishes discussion papers to generate debate around key aspects of its work our occasional papers are publications that are not part of a wider set of releases discussion paper no 5 public investment and potential output last published 29 august 2024 next release tbc publications economic and fiscal outlook fiscal risks and long term projections forecast evaluation report welfare trends report monthly public finance release devolution all other publications forecasts in depth tax by tax spend by spend the economy forecast policy costings economic impact of policy measures brief guides and explainers brexit analysis forecast process analytical and discussion papers obr macroeconomic model box sets about the obr what we do who we are legislation and related material international engagement external engagement external reviews working with government vacancies transparency letters requests for information evidence to parliaments governance and reporting press conferences and presentations follow us on twitter this link opens in a new window subscribe to our youtube channel this link opens in a new window connect with us on linkedin this link opens in a new window accessibility statement privacy policy cookie policy copyright contact us manage cookie settings 2026 office for budget responsibility 14t 102 petty france london sw1h 9aj email protected this website uses cookies to improve your experience we ll assume you re ok with this but you can opt out if you wish cookie settings reject accept cookie policy close privacy overview this website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website out of these the cookies that are categorized as necessary are 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