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iven to the cabinet economic policy committee ahead of new zealand s vote against developing a mandated health star rating system earlier this year if nz made the fsanz health star ratings compulsory kiwi firms would have to comply so would anyone else wanting to sell food in nz international outfits would then either eschew our market as not being worth the hassle run limited production runs meeting the fsanz standard at higher cost both because of the smaller run and because they d lose flexibility to shift products across markets as market conditions change or make kiwi retailers put stupid little stickers onto everything manually all of those would limit competition here and push up costs if nz did not make the health star ratings compulsory kiwi firms wanting to export to australia would have to comply and that s fine they can do that they could even sell the same version of the pack in nz and product from other countries could come in too if they met our biosecurity standards why create another non tariff barrier posted by eric crampton at 13 42 00 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels regulation thursday 28 may 2026 assorted budget bits a few minor bits i noted in looking through the budget won t bother going through the headline stuff that will have been well covered elsewhere they expect to save 1 97 billion by 2029 2030 through the public sector transformation project reducing staffing numbers there will be pressure on that figure despite the substantial increase in public sector staffing both in absolute numbers and as fraction of population over the past six years statistics new zealand gets a large budget increase both opex and capex to modernise the idi at the same time it will be held to baseline savings like the rest of the public sector the minister for statistics might want to watch that snz doesn t siphon idi money out for other activities they re fixing part of the fif regime as it faces domestic investors to match the fixes made for those moving to nz taxing unrealised gains was always dumb good that they re fixing this the proposal for reducing the risk of online harm to children puts 30 75m over four years to develop policy and possible regulatory options to improve children s online safety subject to future policy and funding decisions this is just for the policy development work it seems like far more money than necessary for a project that shouldn t be being undertaken in the first place they ve set a defence technology accelerator as part of the defence capability plan sounds neat only gets 16 1m over 4 years maybe if its first year looks promising funds from the online harm thing could be shunted over here customs is getting 15 3m opex and 19 5m capex to respond to increased smuggling text says it s aimed at illicit drugs and 35 9m in third party levy revenue could affect tobacco excise too a whole page of the befu supplementary materials goes through the weaker outlook for tobacco excise they ve sharply reduced forecast tobacco excise revenue as compared to the hyefu forecast 1 58 billion over the forecast period they note a weakened demand profile but they don t get into whether it s a drop in smoking or a shift to illicit markets it s a drop in demand for excised tobacco in either case but they do note an offsetting minor increase in forecast tobacco revenue over the same period and this is kinda funny the excise rates for heated tobacco products htps were reduced by 50 on 1 july 2024 recent data show that the decline in duty from the lower htp duty rates has not been as large as was expected furthermore subsequent research suggests that future htp take up will not be as large as was previously assumed remember the giant beat up on casey costello in 2024 for the tax break for big tobacco it was all based on that very stupid estimate that treasury stuck in the forecasts nobody should have believed the figure at the time it was ludicrous i don t know whether hon verrell actually believed it or whether it just gave her a convenient line to beat up on the government for its changes to tobacco policy neither s great my column on the stupidity of that figure is here i think treasury is likely overestimating alcohol excise returns recall that snz reports very sharp reductions in per capita alcohol available for consumption those figures are based on excise returns treasury has applied a one off drop to current levels but then a reversion to prior pre covid trend growth in excise i think covid and glp 1 inhibitors and general trends in youth risk aversion have caused a structural break total alcohol available for consumption on the snz figures peaked in 2021 at 36 3 million litres and have declined since despite population growth 2025 was only 31 3 million litres overall it ll take a heroic effort to stick to the plan they have and that ll only get us to structural surplus by 2029 posted by eric crampton at 17 56 00 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels budget new zealand monday 25 may 2026 sezs as policy trial areas a decade ago i coauthored a report looking at how greater localism and subsidiarity could be achieved in a very centralised country where local councils have variable capabilities we settled on policy trial areas the basic gist was as follows first a community would pitch a policy trial area a special economic zone with different policy or regulatory settings more suitable for local conditions the idea would come from the local community some national level policies are really unsuitable to some local conditions that community would work with treasury to come up with indicators ahead of time how could we tell if the trial were working what side effects might we need to watch as well successful trials would often mean higher tax revenue for central government lower dependence or both share the gains with the originating community as a policy discovery payment then let it extend to other communities asking to take it up failed trials would fail at small scale central government would rule out any proposals that could not in principle be extended to other similar communities if the trial were successful so tax concession areas would be right out different consenting processes could be fine a successful trial could extend to similar consents in other places i have not read the proposal for marsden point but i do not recognise our proposal in bryce edwards critique of what s been proposed at marden point edwards writes a lobbyist s paradise the economist michael reddell saw the obvious problem the moment jones first floated the idea if there were any substance to the sez concept reddell wrote the policy seemed likely to be a lobbyist s paradise and perhaps that of political party donors recipients he recalled that the new zealand initiative had pitched something very similar a decade ago reddell s lobbyist point is the one that nz first does not want to engage with the moment you start designating discretionary zones with bespoke tax treatment and accelerated consenting you create exactly the kind of high value low transparency politics in which the lines between commercial interest and political access become blurred who decides which company qualifies as being inside the zone who decides what activities achieve the aims of the zone who appoints the panel on what criteria under what review process these are not pedantic questions they are the central governance questions and they are conspicuously absent from anything peters or jones have said in public nz first of all parties used to have something to say about that sort of arrangement to answer edwards questions within the framework that my shop proposed 1 nobody decides which companies qualify as being inside the zone the zone applies to activities within the zone s boundaries if the company s activities are inside the zone then those activities would qualify 2 nobody would be deciding on activities except when the zone is struck a proposal to for example trial a different version of the minimum wage for piece rate employers in the zone would apply to all piece rate employers in the zone there d be no assessment of aims 3 we didn t have panels so appointments and criteria weren t questions 4 we did have review against the indicators that the community had set with treasury central govt doing the assessment maybe edwards column is better in the half that s on the other side of the paywall posted by eric crampton at 16 37 00 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels local government supermarkets and the price of beef danyl mclaughlan s piece in the listener on nz grocery retail is fun there s a fair bit potentially packed into non monopolistic prices here northelia was edwards proposal to the commerce commission during its 2020 21 market study it represented an unnamed group of investors with capital in excess of 1 billion who would establish a third entrant into the new zealand grocery market on condition the commission break up the existing chains making up to 175 supermarkets available for purchase at non monopolistic prices crucially it would also compel access to an existing chain s distribution system there s a different bit i wanted to pick up on though here s danyl instead willis strengthened the grocery supply code and the wholesale access regime none of the major international chains engaged with the government s request for a proposal consumer price index data for 2025 showed fruit increasing in price by 10 vegetables by 4 9 and meat by 8 6 remember that meat trades internationally we export a fair bit to the us nz producers will sell to the highest bidder the ship ready to go to the us the local butcher or the supermarket here s what s happened to the price of ground beef in the us over the past year us ground beef prices are up by more than 20 for 2025 it d be surprising if nz prices didn t go up as well it s been part of a longer term increase in us beef prices the graph below sets 1 jan 2020 at 100 for both cpi and ground beef prices they re up about 76 over that period cpi s up about 24 i suppose folks could blame woolworths and foodstuffs for the run up in us ground beef prices and the national led coalition too but it seems more likely that high export prices pull up nz domestic prices across the board or maybe trump will order a break up of nz supermarkets to help us grocery prices who knows posted by eric crampton at 11 02 00 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels competition danyl mclauchlan food friday 22 may 2026 afternoon roundup closing the tabs so i can find the ones i really do need using hoards of ancient coins to trace out historic trade networks left wing populism is also risky act won t be supporting national s proposed social media age limits meanwhile meta and google battle over who s going to be stuck trying to verify user ages i really don t like options that require os level id verification nz needs more investable propositions it will come back to bite you but if partisans have very high discount rates bbc s more or less on the relative risks of vaping and smoking happy 50th birthday to the layfield report i m still unconvinced of the merits relative to a combination of user beneficiary charges uniform general rates and land value apportionment of council rates i ll have to properly go through the thing though i ll be helping out on the advisory group for te kura taka pini posted by eric crampton at 14 10 00 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels assorted links censorship economic history local government new zealand populism technology vaping newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom your correspondents eric crampton seamus hogan co blogger through 2015 the masthead explained the 2 sample a non representative selection the first year s top posts top posts of 2010 top posts of 2013 class etiquette preference falsification in king arthur s court mcdonald s vs mcworld kiwi freedom oh christchurch social costs and hpv tax maximisation smoking and the stalin gap transfusions and operating room ethics conscientious non voting folk activism economic ignorance in new zealand the alcohol j curve science versus politics one sided skepticism the one day a week restaurant gollum psychoanalyzed the gnomes of canterbury court philosophers insuring the uninsurable economics of ticket scalping trent reznor edition in defense of price gouging in defense of sweatshops assurance contracts and dominant assurance contracts youth unemployment and the youth minimum wage debunking the atlas moment investing in piracy building the ownership society video games and the socialist calculation debate inuit print making and cigarette packets search me recent comments twitter tweets by ericcrampton 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