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rent form and replace it with a more selective schengen ii which could only be joined by countries adopting the same immigration policies sarkozy s political strategy looks pretty clear take a tougher more realist stance on europe and immigration to stop the ump losing voters to marine le pen s front national what is far from clear at this stage though is whether the new line will draw unanimous support from the rest of sarkozy s party another important point to keep in mind is that the victory in saturday s party leadership poll does not automatically make sarkozy the centre right candidate for the 2017 french presidential election a separate primary election is due in 2016 when sarkozy is going to face at least one much tougher rival former french foreign minister alain juppé how that duel will end is anyone s guess but recent opinion polls suggest that juppé would have a better chance of victory in case of an open primary where members of smaller centrist parties can vote alongside with ump members to elect a single centre right presidential candidate sarkozy has so far spoken in favour of an open primary although he looks reluctant to involve the democratic movement modem in the exercise the centrist party led by françois bayrou actually endorsed françois hollande in the run off of the 2012 presidential election against sarkozy and bayrou has made no secret of his support for juppé as the centre right candidate in 2017 finally sarkozy remains directly or indirectly involved in a series of pending legal cases that may well dog his campaign the road to 2017 is still very long posted by open europe blog team at 5 18 pm 6 comments labels eu european union france french politics juppe le pen sarkozy schengen friday november 28 2014 what impact will cameron s eu free movement changes actually have on the ground we ve laid it out in our response today but in an attempt to elucidate things we ll go into a bit more detail in this post in addition to the general fairness discussion making sure that there s a link between what people put in and what they take out the debate is now centred on the practical impact of the proposals in a twitter discussion we had last week with michael o connor and jonathan portes on the number of eu migrants effected by these sorts of curbs they seem to claim that around 10 of eastern europeans will be affected the conclusion they seem to draw is that the proposal won t make that much of a difference to reach that figure they seem to simply take the percentage of eastern european s claiming benefits in 2013 it does not seem to be based off the data over four years or compared over time to see if this snapshot is representative the data available is unfortunately pretty bad but there s enough data to look over time rather than a single year as we have laid out in our response today we think these measures will hit between 14 and 16 of total eu migrants one in seven eu migrants this is shown in the table above and taken from the average of the final four years percentages in the graph below as we have noted before its obvious and logical that the longer migrants stay in the uk the more benefits they claim as they have more children etc but from that it s hard to draw the conclusion that the impact is insignificant as a share of gross flows shown in graph below this will likely impact around 100 000 people over the four year period this is based on flows from the four years before 2008 and 2014 is this a significant impact depends on what you want to achieve if you want to end free movement it s not if you want to put a cap on free movement it s not enough either that s not what we want however we think free movement should stand that s the point if however you want to target the one area that seems to be of the most concern to the uk with respect to eu migration the low wage sector then 100 000 over four years matters this number will be largely at the low wage end of the labour market since these are the workers that claim significant amounts of in work benefits in other words as we ve said all along this is a targeted policy intended to take away the de facto taxpayer backed subsidy to perform low paid jobs which does not exist in most other eu countries it s impossible to put a firm number on how many people will decide not to come due to this measure we ve provided plenty of figures showing how this would take away the incentive in many cases to move from a minimum or an average wage in some parts of europe to a minimum wage in uk using in work benefits as effective top up in turn making the move financially attractive in the first place in other cases the de facto income gap between the sending state and the uk will be massively reduced taken together and as anyone who has moved across borders will know changes in the cost of living in the country of destination will feature in any decision to make the move in the first place perhaps not in a detailed spreadsheet kind of way but it does clearly feature the volume dimension is one part of the the package and it shouldn t be over stated however it certainly shouldn t be under stated either unless of course you want to end free movement posted by open europe blog team at 5 57 pm 9 comments labels britain in europe cameron eu free movement eu migrants eu migration immigration speech cameron s speech the response so far from around europe the big speech has been delivered you can read our response here but below we round up the reactions from around europe remember the changes cameron set out today based on open europe s research will require agreement from other eu leaders european commission a commission spokesperson said after the speech that these are uk ideas and they are part of the debate they will have to be discussed without drama and should be discussed calmly and carefully this is a welcome shift from the dark days of viviane reding and laszlo andor germany no german politician has been brave enough to put their heads above the parapet yet but the german media headlines aren t exactly helpful spiegel online goes with demands to brussels cameron blackmails the eu ard s headline is cameron s demands eu membership is only conditional focus titles their article with these demands cameron blackmails the eu this list could easily be continued the actual substance of cameron s speech has been crowded out in most parts of the german media landscape we suspect that might change though when it becomes clearer that cameron may just have saved free movement poland as we saw with the polish ambassador s response to our report on monday this is a delicate issue with warsaw ultra sensitive to any measures that are seen as discriminatory cameron wisely prepared the ground by discussing his speech with polish pm ewa kopacz whose office today issued a statement which which argued that poland will not agree to changes undermining the principles of the eu s single market specifically the free movement of people which should as such be maintained in its current form this can be seen as a holding position the polish government is holding its cards to its chest although former polish europe minister mikolaj dowgielewicz was more forthright tweeting that cameron s plan will definitely not pass in its entirety at the ecj but this will already be after the uk elections weak response by the commission czech republic the response by the czech europe minister tomas prouza is the toughest we ve seen so far he suggested that cameron wanted to tax people differently according to their nationality even though tax credits is a cash subsidy and are not correlated to tax paid he also tweeted a picture of czech wwii pilots who fought in the raf pointing out that they hadn t worked in the uk for over 4 years most eu leaders seem to be holding fire though plenty of other reactions to come no doubt posted by open europe blog team at 2 05 pm 10 comments labels britain in europe cameron eu free movement immigration speech thursday november 27 2014 why cameron should stay clear of an emergency brake on eu free movement david cameron s immigration speech is expected to take place very soon as we have noted several times one of the options that he potentially could go for is an emergency brake the ability to impose temporary restrictions on the number of eu migrants who come to the uk we can see why this would be appealing politically but we fear that if cameron does announce something like this without having a clear vision for how it would work exactly in practice it could turn into another net immigration target sounding very good in an election manifesto but ineffective in practice we ve made this point a few times but to elaborate here s why an emergency brake would be targeted at flows of new eu migrants not the existing stocks uk ministers have previously spoken about the need to manage destabilising flows however this remains a vague term that could mean many different things pinning down what would constitute a destabilising flow could prove incredibly tricky for example the graph below shows that current flows are not proportionately higher than previous flows and remain small as a share of the workforce relevant for their impact on wages in general if the bar is too high the mechanism will never be used if too low the brake would become a long term rather than temporary measure a de facto limit and be tremendously hard to negotiate in europe source ons it is very difficult to codify objective criteria for pulling an emergency brake particularly any that apply to the uk s current situation the uk economy is booming unemployment is falling eu migrants have high employment rates and the uk takes less eu migrants per head than several other eu member states all these most obvious criteria won t work for the uk it s hard to claim to be the best performing economy in europe and simultaneously claim to have a crisis so bad that special treatment is required it would also be impossible to predict all the future challenges migration could pose source eurostat possibly the most compelling argument the uk could use at the current time is that certain local areas are facing high pressures on public services and housing supply however restricting eu migration to certain areas of the uk would be very difficult to administer in practice while national restrictions would be a disproportionate response to local problems the impact of migrants is also hard to discern in exact terms given other domestic policies regarding housing and local services what the uk would effectively be asking for is a time out from eu migration which is largely a result of understandable political pressures however this necessarily makes the criteria for pulling the emergency brake politically arbitrary and in turn tougher to negotiate in europe there s not a government in europe it now seems that doesn t have a populist challenge should spain be granted dispensation too it s also difficult to sell at home there are precedents in eu law for restricting either free movement of persons or the other eu freedoms so in that sense an emergency brake wouldn t be completely out of character for the eu all of the existing brakes however are policed by the european commission and the european court of justice would a domestic audience be happy with such an arrangement furthermore at the very best the brake is likely to be temporary and may only delay flows rather than actually reduce them it would have to be activated for a very long time in order for it to really reduce net flows in the long term in addition if cost of living is to be cited as a reason for pulling the emergency brake it means accepting that there is a cost of living crisis a move that would any uk government would be politically loathed to make in public if someone can come up with a criteria for how to capture all the potential variables then we re open to suggestions but it would be foolish to announce such a big policy on such loose grounds as we ve argued repeatedly writing the headline first and the policy later rarely works posted by open europe blog team at 5 24 pm 6 comments labels david cameron eu free movement free movement immigration speech will the new migration figures force the tories to go one step further on free movement where do migrants to the uk come from the eu or non eu david cameron s hopes of getting back on the front foot on migration have been dealt a blow this morning ons figure s show that immigration is up and specifically immigration from the eu is up as well these figures are important for two reasons firstly the timing these figures come ahead of a much anticipated speech david cameron is about to deliver on the whole subject secondly the numbers when compared to two targets firstly the conservatives 2010 manifesto migration target of tens of thousands a year not hundreds of thousands secondly the comparison to migration flows under labour here are some of the headline figures total net long term migration estimated to be 260 000 in the year ending june 2014 up from 182 000 in the previous 12 months total gross immigration of 583 000 in the year ending june 2014 a statistically significant increase from 502 000 in the previous 12 months eu immigration up 45 000 and non eu up 30 000 32 000 romanians and bulgarians came to the uk up 11 000 and eu15 migration also up 10 000 estimated employment of eu nationals resident in the uk was 16 higher in july to september 2014 compared to the same quarter in 2013 interestingly while immigration is also up from the new eu member states the longer term trend driving eu migration is that from the eu15 so how will all this play out well as you can see from the ons graph below eu migration is not the largest component in total uk migration that non eu migration also went up for the first time in a while is politically significant however eu migration is a large portion the fact it is not showing any sign of decreasing will fuel trust issues over both the eu and migration politically perhaps the most significant aspect here is that net migration to the uk is now higher than when labour left office but lower than the peak during the labour government ukip and some media are already jumping on this ahead of the speech there s one key question has the tory leadership already priced in today s figures or has this made a cap of some sort more likely posted by open europe blog team at 10 40 am 5 comments labels a2 a8 david cameron eu accession eu free movement eu migration eu speech immigration nigel farage poland romania ukip older posts home subscribe to posts atom blog archiv 2014 348 december 10 open europe embraces digital change free movement why reforming rules on in work bene was the greek government right to call a snap pres eu falling short on implementing bank capital rules upside down europe podemos gears up for next year s spanish elections six arguments cameron can make t...