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looking for rental housing and is great for those with property to rent and property values are soaring which is great for those who own homes but bad for those that want to buy politicians hear the complaints and want to avoid being seen as passive so they try to come up with policies that sound good to voters unfortunately these ideas are generally half baked and done without nearly enough research and thought and poor policy can have bad consequences thus we have this proposal from city commissioner chloe eudaly with the support of mayor ted wheeler this proposal would require landlords to pay the moving costs of tenants evicted for no cause the idea is to discourage such evictions the actual result is most likely to make the rental housing situation worse how so well first let s start with the premise that no cause evictions are part of the problem of unaffordable housing perhaps but oregon has a statewide ban on rent control policies so why is getting a new tenant any better than raising the rent on an existing tenant especially when you factor in the cost of a vacant apartment or house the cost of getting it ready for a new tenant etc it is not at all clear why this policy would help at all second rental housing is a market and markets adjust to distortions created by policymakers this policy clearly raises the cost of doing business for landlords so who pays for these increased costs all students of economics learn from their very first class that the incidence of taxes and other distortions are shared increased costs shift the supply curve back and a new equilibrium results how does that new equilibrium compare to the old one higher price and fewer properties rented exactly the opposite of what commissioners say they want to see in the rental market third there is the incentive to create more rental housing what portland needs more than anything are new rental units to increase supply or shift the supply curve out more units would do the opposite of the above it would lower price and increase units rented finally this policy creates advantages for sitting tenants and disadvantages those looking for rental housing if landlords are less likely to evict tenants tenants are prone to stay longer in rental housing and those wanting housing will find less to rent why are we placing the interests of one group above another group and by the way i know a little of what i speak i have two papers on these types of soft rent control policies that are designed to protect sitting tenants the economics of tenancy rent control w kaushik basu the economic journal october 2000 vol 110 no 466 pp 939 962 efficiency pricing tenancy rent control and monopolistic landlords w kaushik basu economica may 2003 vol 70 no 278 pp 223 232 if you really want to help the rental housing market the first thing you should do as a policy maker is to do no harm don t start distorting markets without considering the consequences the second is to promote the creation of new rental housing if you really want to help but i have a message to policy makers the good news is that the market is promoting the creation of new housing right now without your input at all it is called high rents so by all means do what you can to speed the construction of new housing especially housing targets to lower income renters but please don t resort to bad populist ideas at 2 33 pm 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday january 18 2017 yes january was cold but this graph from the new york times shows the daily high and low temperatures for portland oregon and compares the yearly average temperature to the historical average to find that portland last year was on average more than 2 degrees hotter than normal in 2016 my other adopted hometown são paulo brazil was more than 5 degrees hotter and precipitation was more than 19 inches less than normal ouch at 5 19 pm no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday january 17 2017 school choice and efficiency a note the nomination by donald trump of betsy devos for education secretary has put school choice and vouchers back in the forefront of the national debate about school reform vouchers are often touted by more conservative groups as a way to bring competitive pressures and market discipline to education by empowering families to make choices regarding their children s education this is simply a note to point out that a key even crucial component of market efficiency is complete information consumers must know everything about the product they are purchasing including hoe beneficial it is to themselves the prices of all goods in the market and so on education is far from this education experts are still trying to figure out the critical components of educational outcomes how can uninformed families who only observe schools from the tousled make well informed decisions for their kids simply put they can t thus there is absolutely known reason to believe that we will improve efficiency through the introduction of vouchers school choice or charter schools this is not to say that there could not be beneficial outcomes from such reforms i remain open minded but don t tout the creation of an education market as the answer for it is likely to be inefficient at 3 35 pm no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday january 5 2017 happy new tax year fred thompson checks in with a new years post with the start of another legislative session calls for wholesale tax reform are again being heard frankly most state tax policy specialists are dubious of big reforms my georgia state university colleague carolyn bourdeaux for example boils the typical reform process down to the following seven steps 1 form a commission 2 develop principles of tax reform 3 hold hearings 4 make a proposal based either on the grass is greener assumption or the bold new thinking on taxes notion the former looks like this if your state does not have an income tax propose an income tax if your state does not have a retail sales consumption tax propose a sales tax if your state has a corporate income tax propose a gross receipts tax if your state has a gross receipts tax propose a corporate income tax the latter looks like this if your state relies on personal and or corporate income taxes propose the elimination of all exemptions credits and deductions if your state relies on retail sales taxes propose to tax services and internet sales if your state relies on both sales and income taxes propose to replace them with a value added tax or mess with local government revenues 5 if you choose from the first list your state will probably be no better off than it was before and possibly worse from the second you will probably see your proposal go down in flames 6 wait 5 10 years until the next fiscal crisis 7 repeat the fact is that wholesale tax reform is more often than not a mug s game especially in oregon which has one of the country s best state and local tax systems at least that is the consensus among state and local tax specialists it s not by any means perfect what is but it s better than what you find elsewhere so instead of talking about wholesale tax reform what should we talk about the answers are simple first fix the things that need fixing we know what those things are second if the state needs more money increase the rates on existing taxes third funds are inherently limited set spending priorities and stick to them what needs fixing more than anything else patrick emerson and i have written about the kicker and its folly here at the oregon economics blog in what is largely an exemplary state and local tax system oregon s kicker is an embarrassment or more correctly the legislature s unwillingness to deal with it is simply shameful there is also the problem of kicking the can down the road with respect to maintaining and upgrading state and local transportation infrastructure where the best that can be said is that oregon is probably better than many places but that still isn t very good moreover the state has emphasized its needs at the expense of local governments which given the network aspects of our transportation grid is foolishly suboptimal finally the legislature has handed out tens of billions of dollars in business and personal income tax deductions and exemptions usually with the best of intentions promoting economic development conservation or other worthwhile activities but tax expenditures are all too often ineffective and excessively costly many if not most of these loopholes subsidies should be repealed which is of course easier to say than to do beyond these measures if more funds are needed raise income and business tax rates by far the worst thing about measure 97 was the size of the jump it proposed a 2 500 percent rate increase it makes sense to consider a more incremental increase in the alternative minimum turnover tax rate while retaining the offset provision for c corps boosting taxes requires compromise oregonians care about schools and roads but they are also inherently thrifty if not actually cheap at a minimum support for k 12 and highway spending must be prioritized ahead of other state programs and initiatives moreover cost saving reforms to the state s public pension system probably ought to be on the agenda as well upholding contracts is one thing guaranteeing unanticipated windfalls another if kicker reform together with other tax increases are on the table pension inflation adjustments especially those which exceed the realized rate of inflation probably ought to be as well holding broadly valued highly esteemed programs hostage to special interests is often a winning legislative tactic but in the longer run it s bad politics one that the governor acquiesces to at her peril at 10 13 am 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday december 14 2016 fred thompson steve novick s first of its kind ceo tax fred thompson checks in with another well researched post unlike mine portland s so called business license fee blf levies a 2 5 percent tax on the adjusted net profits of about 43 000 companies operating in the city starting in 2018 portland will impose a surcharge to this tax on some large publicly owned c corporations the surcharge will apply to businesses which are subject to the dodd frank requirement that they disclose the ratio of their chief executive s ceo compensation to the compensation of their median employee and which also have high compensation ratios portland s department of revenue estimates that about 550 portland businesses will be subject to this reporting requirement where reported compensation ratios are equal to or greater than 100 businesses will pay a 10 percent surcharge on their blf 2 75 percent tax rate equal to or greater than 250 times a 25 percent surcharge 3 125 percent portland s blf generates about 60 million in revenue per annum the municipal revenue office estimates that the 500 businesses subject to dodd frank compensation ratio reporting contribute about one third of blf revenue nearly 20 million per annum and that the surcharge will boost municipal revenue by 2 5 3 5 million per year which implies that nearly all the reporting businesses will be subject to the surcharge at least one third of them at the 3 125 percent rate this is a novel tax experiment as branko milanović explained what i find quite interesting is that it seems to be the first tax that targets inequality as such for milanović it s novel because it treats inequality as having a negative externality like taxing carbon emissions moreover it isn t at all clear how portland s experiment will play out which makes it interesting albeit probably still not in itself materially significant policy experimentation is cool especially elsewhere the remainder of this post will focus on two issues 1 what is the purpose of this measure will it work 2 are the municipal revenue estimates realistic portland spends about 30 million per annum on low income housing and homeless services the revenue from the surcharge will be contributed to fighting homelessness where presumably every bit will help moreover this use of the funds when combined with its source ought to reinforce the symbolic power of the measure there is an implicit presumption that the measure will cause businesses some c corps anyway to moderate ceo compensation or boost median earnings no doubt executive compensation plays a major explanatory role in the explosion in income inequality that has occurred over the past 30 40 years forbes magazine recently reported that the average annual total compensation for a fortune 500 ceo was 10 5 million this breaks down to 3 5 million in salary and bonus 3 8 million in other compensation such as personal perk packages and 3 2 million from exercising vested stock options and awards source economic policy institute however compared to the combined total compensation of fortune 500 ceos of 5 2 billion the 3 million that portland expects to collect through this measure looks like a drop in the ocean unless a lot other jurisdictions follow portland s lead it isn t likely to meaningfully influence corporate compensation practices one way or the other furthermore it is possible that portland won t even collect 3 million from this measure as is the case with a lot of things ceo compensation tends to be characterized by a pareto distribution i e 20 percent of ceos get 80 percent of total compensation that implies an average compensation for the 400 ceos at the bottom of the fortune 500 list of about 2 5 million each well under the 4 million portland used to estimate the cutoff for the surcharge when compared with the average median worker compensation in fortune 500 companies of about 80 000 which boosts the cutoff to 8 million this implies that considerably less than half of portland s top c corps will be on the hook for the surcharge moreover looking only at the average median worker entirely omits from consideration the possibility that bloom et al are correct that two thirds of the rise in earnings inequality from 1978 to 2013 was due to increases occurring between businesses not within them let alone all the shadier expedients mandatory disclosers could avail themselves of to minimize reported compensation ratios at 3 09 pm 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday december 1 2016 silicon valley s relentless hype about disruption is questionable the case of uber despite the hype i have never been convinced by uber there is a reason taxi companies formed and is wasn t just radio dispatch other things such as ability to select and keep skilled drivers economizing on capital stock insurance and maintenance seemed to me party powerful economic forces uber s premise is essentially that there need be no more central contr...